Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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506
FXUS65 KPUB 260530
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1130 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Main near/short term meteorological issues continue to include
temperatures...pops/qpf...high terrain snow and storm intensities.

Forecast district early this afternoon currently graced by variable
cloudiness...isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms(primarily over the western 2/3rds of the forecast
district) and generally below seasonal late August temperatures.

Latest PV analysis...real-time data...computer simulations...and
forecast model soundings indicate that adequate atmospheric
moisture(as indicated by current and forecast precipitable water
values remaining in the 100% to 125% range into Friday) interacting
with upper disturbances(per latest PV analysis) will allow isolated
to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity to continue into
Friday...with some of the stronger storms capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall/localized flash flooding issues as well as
hail...hazardous lightning and gusty wind potential.

In addition...projected maximized capes/LI`s and bulk shear values
of 1300 J/KG...-6C and 30 knots at times will allow for the
potential for marginally severe storms(especially Friday over
eastern sections).  At this time...the Day 2 SPC Outlook(for Friday)
has painted portions of Kiowa...Prowers and Baca counties in the
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.  As always...WFO Pueblo will
closely monitor hydro and convective issues closely.  In
addition...have continued to depict some higher elevation snow at
times in the grids.

Finally...minimum temperatures tonight and maximum temperatures on
Friday are expected to run near late August climatological averages.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

...Warming and Gradually Drying...

Southwest flow will keep a weak to moderate monsoon alive over
southern Colorado into next week. Overall, the atmosphere will
showing drying and lower coverage of showers and storms. But,
it will not dry out completely. Enough monsoon flow will continue
into the state for a daily burst of afternoon and evening showers
and storms, primarily over the mountain areas but with some
limited activity over the plains as well. Primary threats through
the period will be lightning, wind gusts to around 55 mph, brief
heavy rain and local small hail. Shear looks rather weak through
the period so not a lot of severe weather threat.

Starting this weekend and continuing into next week, temperatures
will warm back up to near seasonal averages for this time of
year. This should help raise the snow levels back up and decrease
the amount of high elevation snow we`ve been seen for the past
few days. With the warmer air will also come drier air at the low
levels which will help to reduce the overall heavy rain potential
as well as increase the wind gust potential. All-in-all, getting
back to a pretty typical late summer pattern over the central
Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

A weather disturbance moving across the state will have the
potential to bring some showers to the terminal forecast sites
into the early morning hours. Low stratus is expected at both KCOS
and KPUB tonight with IFR or MVFR conditions, which should improve
to VFR by midmorning at KPUB, but could continue until around
16-17Z at KCOS. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be
possible on Fri at the forecast sites.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28



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