Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 181745
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1045 AM MST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM MST Sat Feb 18 2017

...Round of moderate snow for the southwest mountains tonight...

Long wave trough along the west coast will move inland today with
southern stream portion closing off and moving into central AZ
tonight.  Will continue to see waves of snow spread into the
Continental Divide with ejecting shortwaves ahead of the parent
upper low.  While isolated to scattered snow showers will be
possible through today, it doesn`t look like heavier/steadier
snowfall will get going until after 06z, so will start a winter
weather advisory for the southwest mountains at 06z. Central
mountains will see rounds of snow, but with southwesterly flow
not as favorable an orographic component for that area, any
snowfall will remain light. Snow levels today will remain quite
high, around 10kft or a bit higher, so that should limit day time
accumulations as well.

Otherwise it will be another warm day across southern CO with high
temperatures well into the 60s for most of the plains, well above
normal, but below record values. KALS will continue to warm as
the snow has finally melted out in earnest with readings in the
mid- upper 40s today. Remainder of the mountains will see a mix of
30s and 40s, with lower 50s for the lower eastern slopes. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM MST Sat Feb 18 2017

Sun morning an upper trof will be ovr UT and AZ, and during the day
it is expected to lift northeastward acrs CO.  On Sun, most of the
pcpn associated with this system will be over the mtn and high
valley areas, with the southeast plains possibly just seeing some
isold pcpn in the afternoon and evening hours. The mountain areas,
especially along the Continental Dvd should see at least a few
inches of snow accumulation. Afternoon and evening CAPE values
ovr the far sern plains are forecast to be around 500 j/kg, and
SPC has the area from the Palmer Dvd to Kiowa, Prowers and Baca
counties outlooked for thunder, thus wl keep isold tstms in the
forecast for these areas. Temps will generally be above average on
Sun, with upper 50s to upper 60s acrs the southeast plains for
highs, and 40s in the San Luis Valley and most of the upper
Arkansas River valley. It looks fairly windy over the far
southeast plains Sun afternoon, but it looks like minimum humidity
values will be too high to need a fire weather highlight.

Sun night the NAM shows the upper low center by 06Z ovr srn Lincoln
county which then moves northeast into southwestern NE by 12z.  The
GFS has an open wave that lifts a little farther north than the NAM.
The mountain areas continue getting snow through Sun evening but
accumulations should be light.  Then after midnight the pcpn chances
over the mtns decreases or ends. Acrs the eastern areas, it
currently looks like El Paso county could see the best chance for
pcpn in the evening hours. Late night Sun the NAM wraps pcpn around
the upr low into portions of the southeast plains, while the GFS
shows dry conditions acrs the plains as the open wave moves
northeast.

Mon looks like a dry day as a weak upr ridge moves ovr the state.
Temps will again generally be above average. Tue the upper ridge
gets flattened over the area as a weak disturbance moves by to the
north. It should be dry acrs the area Tue but there could be a few
showers over the high elevations along the Continental Dvd in the
afternoon.  Tue should be a very warm day with highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s acrs the southeast plains and in the 50s in the
high valley locations.  RH values will likely drop into the teens
Tue afternoon acrs the southeast plains and it could be a bit breezy
for at least part of the afternoon, leading to the possibility of
high fire danger.

Tue night a weather disturbance will move into the area and will
bring snow to the Continental Dvd and possibly to the Sangre De
Cristo mtns.  Precipitation will then continue Wed acrs the mtn
areas, with the high valleys maybe seeing some isold showers. High
temps Wed should be well above average and similar to temps on Tue.

Wed night a new upper level trof is forecast to move southward
toward CO, and then move over CO on Thu. This system will send a
front into southeastern CO in the afternoon.  Wed night, snow should
mostly just be seen along the Continental Dvd, and maybe moving into
the Pikes Peak area toward Thu morning.  Then during the day Thu,
pcpn may spread acrs most, if not all of the forecast area.  The
ECMWF is a littler farther north with this system than the GFS and
doesn`t spread pcpn quite as far south in the forecast area as the
GFS.  Temps on Thu will be cooler, but still look to be above
average in most areas.  This upper system will then move out of the
area Thu night and early Fri resulting in mainly dry conditions for
Fri, along with cooler temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1042 AM MST Sat Feb 18 2017

VFR at all taf sites today and tonight. Winds will remain light
at KALS with speeds under 10 kts through the 24 hour period. KCOS
and KPUB will see breezy south to southeast winds 10-15 kts with
a few gusts to 20 kts at KCOS this afternoon before winds
decrease early this evening. Along the Continental Divide,
periods of IFR conditions possible this afternoon and evening
with scattered snow showers. More persistent IFR then develops
late tonight as snowfall increases.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM MST
Sunday for COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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