Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 142206
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
306 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

THE UPR LOW IS MOVING INTO THE FAR SWRN CORNER OF KS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SERN CO PLAINS.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DRY AIR HAS WRAPPED INTO
THE ERN CO BORDER AREA...WITH THE TSTMS BEING ON THE WRN
EDGE...MAINLY OVR BENT COUNTY.  TEMPS OVR THE SERN PLAINS ARE MOSTLY
IN THE 40S...WITH LOWER 50S NR THE KS BORDER. ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR TEMPS ARE IN THE 30S WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...SOMETIMES MIXED
WITH SNOW...EXCEPT OVR NRN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY WHERE TEMPS
ARE A LITTLE COLDER AND THE PCPN IS IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THOUGH WEB
CAMS SHOW ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS OVR NRN EL PASO
COUNTY.

THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE UPR LOW IS WRAPPING THE BEST MSTR INTO
NERN CO.  THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ENE TONIGHT...WITH MSTR
CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND INTO ERN CO INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
THE NAM AND RUC ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS
EVENING OVR PORTIONS OF THE FAR SERN CO PLAINS...WHICH IS WORRISOME
BUT AM SURE THIS IS OVERDONE. AS THE TEMPS COOL THIS EVENING OVR THE
FAR SERN PLAINS PCPN SHOULD CHANGE OVR TO SNOW...BUT IT WL TAKE
AWHILE FOR THE TEMPS TO COOL NR THE ERN BORDER.  HAVE DECIDED TO PUT
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE
SERN PLAINS THIS EVENING...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

ELSEWHERE...WEB CAMS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN MOST AREAS IN THE WAY
OF SNOWFALL AND ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHT SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED OVR THE
SANGRES THIS EVENING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS WL NOT
LONGER OCCUR AND WL THEREFORE CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA WITH
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE.  WL ALSO CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR
THE LEADVILLE AREA...BUT WL KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR THE SAWATCH AND
MOSQUITO RANGES GOING TO 01Z.

FOR LATE TONIGHT...AS THE UPR LOWS CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE
AREA...PCPN OVR THE SERN PLAINS WL BE ON THE DECREASE AND SHOULD
MOSTLY BE OVR BY MON MORNING.  THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL KEEP SOME ISOLD
TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS GOING THRU THE NIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING OVR
THE CENTRAL CO MTNS...BUT ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WITH DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT IN THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP.

MONDAY WL GENERALLY BE A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS BEING CLOSE TO AVERAGE.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY AND
INTO COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY. SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES
COLORADO AND IT IS MOVING RELATIVELY FAST. GRIDS HAVE INCREASING
POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WEAK UPSLOPE ONE THE PLAINS WILL
TEND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL VALUES DESPITE SOME
WARMING ALOFT.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SECOND...STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NEAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY. THIS TRACK KEEP
MUCH OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE STATE. GFS AND EC
SUGGEST A MUCH WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO. GFS AND EC PRINT SOME LIGHT QPF ON THE PLAINS
THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. DECIDED TO ADD
SOME ISOLATED POPS ON THE PLAINS...WHICH MATCHES SURROUNDING
OFFICES BETTER. IF THE CURRENT PATH OF THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE
REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF COLORADO...ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION ON
THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIGHT.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES ONSHORE LATE FRIDAY
AND SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z GFS HAS AN INTERESTING
SOLUTION WITH THE CUTOFF PASSING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THIS PATH COULD BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE CWA. EC AND A FAIR
NUMBER OF ENSEMBLES MEMBERS HAVE THE CUTOFF MOVING FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST...REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF COLORADO. THIS SOLUTION WOULD
LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE CWA.   --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

KALS SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST.

KCOS WL STILL HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY THIS EVENING AND
COULD HAVE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

KPUB WL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
STILL BE SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY THIS EVENING AND THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ058-
060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...28



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