Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 131106
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
506 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

CURRENTLY...RADAR SHOWS MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE MILD...WITH READINGS FROM AROUND 40 TO THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...30S HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 20S AND 30S MOUNTAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
VIGOROUS TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. LIGHTNING OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MORNING IN
NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO.

TODAY...GOING FORECAST WITH TIMING AND SNOW AMOUNTS LOOKING GOOD
WITH THIS LATE SEASON SNOW EPISODE FOR THE CWA. SHORT RANGE MODELS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SNOW BEGINNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO RANGES...AND STARTING THE MAIN BATCH OF
PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDMORNING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION AND SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. MAIN IMPACTS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES BEGIN.  MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 0 CELSIUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE I-
25 CORRIDOR  BY MIDMORNING...SO ANY RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD FLIP OVER TO
SNOW...AND INITIALLY BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON COLDER SURFACES. THE
GOING FORECAST HAS THE RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER OCCURRING IN COLORADO
SPRING MIDMORNING...AND IN PUEBLO AND LA JUNTA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.  THEN BY 00Z THE RATON RIDGE SHOULD FLIP OVER TO ALL
SNOW. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL DEVELOP...AND PUSH SOUTHWARD WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...
PLUNGING TO VALUES BELOW MINUS 10 CELSIUS AT THE 700 MB LEVEL BY MID
TO LATE EVENING. NSSL WRF SHOWS SOME FAIRLY STRONG MAXIMUM ECHOS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...BEGINNING AROUND 19Z AND LASTING THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFT AND INSTABILITY. AND
SPEAKING OF INSTABILITY...HAVE PUT ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXPECTATION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS THAT THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD OCCUR IN THIS
TIME FRAME.  STARTING AROUND 00Z THE ECHOS INTENSIFY ALONG THE RATON
RIDGE...WHICH IS WHY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINS IN LAS
ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES AT THAT TIME. THE TIMING IS PRETTY MUCH
MIRRORED BY THE NAM12.

TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW SNOW TAPERING OFF ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA BY MID EVENING...BUT LASTING ACROSS THE EAST UNTIL AROUND
06Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE SNOW WILL
END AROUND 09Z. IT WILL BE QUITE COOL BY APRIL STANDARDS BY
DAWN...WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.  TYPICALLY WE DO NOT BEGIN ISSUING FROST ADVISORIES AND
FREEZE WARNINGS UNTIL MAY 1ST...FYI.

WITH REGARD TO SNOW AMOUNTS...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOK
GOOD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO RANGES...WITH OVER
A FOOT OF SNOW OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. OF COURSE WITH THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM... SNOW BURSTS COULD BRING THE ADVERTISED 6 TO
9 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUANS AND LA GARITAS IN SAGUACHE AND
MINERAL COUNTIES. MODELS ARE PUTTING MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS THAN IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PIKES PEAK ITSELF)...AND THIS IS DEPICTED WELL IN THE
GOING FORECAST. NSSL WRF IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED WATER TOTALS OF 2
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AND 1 1/2 INCHES ON PIKES
PEAK...AND MORE THAN 1/2 INCH ACROSS TELLER COUNTY AND THE PALMER
DIVIDE.  THESE HIGHER VALUES COULD VERY WELL OCCUR WITH THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.  CURRENTLY WE HAVE SIMILAR SNOW
AMOUNTS...USING THE 10:1 RATIO...WITH AROUND A FOOT AND A HALF OVER
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRES AND WETS...AND PIKES PEAK.
THERE MAY VERY WELL BE SOME ISOLATED TOTALS OF OVER 20 INCHES. -TLM-


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS IS ON THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
AT LEAST THURSDAY.

LATEST COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE NOTED MONDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVING METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATER
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL
UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
TO ABOVE MID-APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES SHOULD BE NOTED OVER
MOST LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS THEN PROJECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
DISTRICT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY/THURSDAY
EVENING. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER MOIST NORTHERLY SURGE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

THIS COMBINATION OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND MOIST NORTHERLY
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ACCUMULATING SNOW(POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES) WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY THURSDAY.

A RETURN TO WARMER AND OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS IS THEN
ANTICIPATED FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS NEXT TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGE TRAVERSES COLORADO...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

KCOS...EXPECT THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW TO OCCUR 15Z TO 18Z
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TRANSITIONING TO IFR BY 18Z. DURING THE
AFTERNOON IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR AND
VFR IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KPUB...EXPECT THE CHANGOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW TO OCCUR AROUND 21Z
WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE
BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KALS...EXPECT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR A TIME FROM
AROUND 02Z THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR COZ058>061-063-066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
COZ072-073-079-080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR COZ077-078-083-087.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM MDT
MONDAY FOR COZ088-094-099.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
COZ076-081-082-084.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM MDT MONDAY
FOR COZ074-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR COZ085.

&&

$$



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