Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 152231
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
331 PM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

...Winds on the increase again with elevated fire danger along
portions of the I-25 corridor and valleys...

Much cooler temperatures in place today behind yesterday`s cold
front with readings running much closer to climo across the plains.
Temperatures are still running above normal farther west,
particularly at KALS.   Westerly flow aloft will strengthen
overnight as the upper trof moves into the western U.S. Surface lee
trof redevelops which should keep min temperatures on the warm side
across the lower eastern slopes of the southeast mountains as
westerly winds start to kick up again.

As the upper trof approaches on Thursday, strong westerly winds
will mix down into the lower elevations by afternoon.  Strongest
gusts are expected to stay confined to the mountain areas. However,
gusts to around 25 to 30 mph will spread eastward through gaps into
portions of the I-25 corridor counties.  Thus locations in the usual
windy spots like around Walsenburg, Fort Carson and north of
Colorado Springs will start to see breezy winds during the
afternoon.  Gusts across the higher mountains will increase to
around 50 mph by afternoon while gusts to 35 to 40 mph spread into
the adjacent valleys. This will start to raise fire weather concerns
for these areas, however latest fuels status still indicates fuels
are not critical across zone 222 (Fremont county) where conditions
are most likely to materialize.  Given Huerfano county also saw a
nice band of snow with the last snow event, this area is also not
likely not critical. So no fire weather highlights anticipated. Dew
points will also be gradually increasing through the day, especially
western portions of these areas as moisture starts to spread in
ahead of the incoming system, so it will be tough to make the 3 hour
window for critical fire weather conditions as well. Otherwise,
temperatures tomorrow should jump back up into the 70s for the
plains, 50s and 60s for the lower mountain and valley locations.,
and a mix of 30s and 40s for the higher peaks. Looks like record
highs for Thursday will be safe though it will be very warm for
November standards.
Previous Records: ALS 67 in 2016, COS 78 in 2016, PUB 82 in 2016
-KT

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 PM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

Thursday night through Friday...A strong upper system will cross the
Pacific NW Thu night through Friday morning, then will sweep across
the Rockies Friday with the trough axis finally exiting eastern CO
early sat morning. A very tight pressure gradient will produce
strong gusty winds across the higher elevations and adjacent plains,
on top of a prolonged period of snow for the mts with a focus on the
Continental Divide. Therefore, went ahead and issued a winter storm
watch for snow and blowing snow for portions of the Continental
Divide from 06z Fri through 12z Sat, for total snow amounts of up to
18 inches possible by early Sat morning. In addition, though wind
speeds will be strong along the I-25 corridor and eastern plains Fri
morning and afternoon prior to the trough axis swinging across, the
highest wind speeds at this time are expected across Huerfano and
Las Animas Counties, near the CO/NM state line. Went ahead and
issued a high wind watch for those areas Fri morning and aftn for
wind gusts of around 60 mph.

Saturday through Monday...The upper trough axis swings across the SE
corner of the state Sat morning, with just a few lingering showers
over the E mts early Sat morning. Sat looks to be the coldest day of
the extended period, with highs only forecast to reach the 40s to
around 50F. Otherwise, dry W-NW flow across the region is expected
with temps then climbing into the 50s to around 60F on Sun and Mon.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Long range models are at odds with what
happens starting Tue across Colorado. solutions vary from an upper
closed low sweeping across the desert Sw, to a shortwave crossing
the northern Rockies bringing snow to the northern half of Colorado.
For now will stick with what the extended procedure provided, which
is an isolated chance for some snow across the higher elevations,
and seasonable max temps with readings in the 50s to near 60F for
both days. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 331 PM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours.  Winds will be the
primary concern, especially just beyond the 24 hour window for
thursday night into Friday as a strong jet stream moves across.  In
the mean time breezy southerly winds at all three terminals will
gradually diminish early this evening.  Southwest winds will pick up
at the terminals on Thursday with the potential for gusts to around
20-25 kts.  Otherwise some VFR cigs will be possible at times with
bouts of wave cloudiness. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday
night for COZ058-060-061-068.

High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
COZ087-088-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT


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