Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

000
FXUS65 KPUB 151725
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1125 AM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow will continue through the morning hours over most areas
  over the higher terrain and along the I-25 corridor, and then
  taper off going into the afternoon hours over the plains.

- Snow will still be possible over the higher terrain tonight,
  especially across the southwestern mountains. A few showers
  could move out over the adjacent plains by later in the night.

- Cool and unsettled weather through the weekend, especially over
  and near the higher terrain.

- Warmer into the work week, with increasing chances of showers
  by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 438 AM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Today...

Currently, good upsloping is providing continuous snow along
portions of the I-25 corridor, mainly over El Paso County up against
the Pikes Peak Region (PPR) and Ramparts on the eastern facing
slopes. There is also some light snow moving over the southern
mountains, San Luis Valley, and portions of the southern I-25
corridor.

The latest high res model guidance suggests that snow will continue
to diminish going into the afternoon hours over the I-25 corridor as
the upslope component continues to weaken the high pressure building
in and upper level forcing is reduced from the weakening U/L low to
the southwest of the region. The HRRR really has things drying out
along the I-25 corridor by Noon, with only some remaining snow
showers over the southern I-25 corridor and Raton Mesa area. A
consensus of the guidance displays the best upsloping occurring
along the Wet Mountains, which could receive an additional 6 inches
or more through the morning along the eastern facing slopes. In
general, precip looks to end for most over the CWA from northeast to
southwest going into the afternoon hours. Until then, some areas
could still have additional snowpack on the roads with tricky travel
conditions for this early morning commute, mainly locations north of
Fountain, in and around Colorado City down to Walsenburg, and
Trinidad, where elevations are greater than 6000 ft and accumulating
snow on road surfaces and thus slick conditions will be more likely.
Going into the afternoon, the only model that is really optimistic
about keep precip going longer over the plains is the NAM 4km Nest,
which has a swath of QPF moving up over the southeastern plains from
the south by later in the afternoon which could provide an
additional dusting of snow for the higher elevations of the plains
and rain or a mix for the lower elevations in eastern Las Animas or
Baca County, then fizzles out by the time it makes its way north
over Highway 50. Other than that outlier as a possibility, the
plains should become dry for the most part after Noon. Highs will
still be on the chilly side, especially along the I-25 corridor
where there is more snow on the ground, ad will likely stay in the
30. Otherwise, the rest of the plains should get up into the 40s,
and close to 50F in Lamar. Across the higher terrain, it will be in
the upper 30s to low 40s for the mountain valleys and teens to 20s
for the highest elevations.

Tonight...

Mostly cloudy skies may break by early evening for portions of the
far eastern plains, while most other locations remain mostly cloudy
to overcast throughout the night, which will help to keep
temperatures slightly modified to be on the warmer side. Winds will
continue to weaken and turn more southerly over the plains, and also
become light across the higher terrain. Snow showers will continue
to be possible across the mountains, and especially over the eastern
San Juans. As the U/L low over the southwestern CONUS slowly
propagates eastward and towards the region going into the morning
hours on Saturday, it will also slightly increase chances of snow
over the mountains, and it is not out of the question that some of
these could move out over into the adjacent plains, especially
within close proximity to the Raton Mesa area. There could be some
patchy fog developing over the Palmer Divide by later this evening
and through the night. Also, with recent precip in the San Luis
Valley, there could be some isolated areas of patchy fog, especially
in close proximity to the Rio Grande River basin. Lows will drop
down into the 20s across the plains, and generally in the teens,
with a few single digits for the highest peaks.   -Stewey

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 438 AM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Saturday-Sunday...Cool and unsettled weather remains in the offing
through the weekend, especially over and near the higher terrain, as
energy rotating through the east to southeast upper level flow
around the cutoff low across the Desert Southwest, combines with
modest east to northeast low to mid level flow and caa behind
passing northern stream fronts across the Plains. The greatest
accumulations of 4 to 9 inches through this period look to be across
the eastern slopes of the southeast mtns, as well as the eastern
slopes of the eastern San Juan and La Garita mtns, where we may need
to issue a new set of winter weather highlights once the current
storms set of highlights end later today. There could also be
locally higher amounts across the southern mtns with the potential
for a few thunder snow showers both Saturday and Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures over and near the higher terrain look to be below
seasonal averages through the weekend, and cooled NBM temps a tad in
areas where the greatest snow fell over the past two days. Further
east across the southeast Plains, highs could reach the mid to upper
50s.

Monday-Thursday...Warmer and drier weather expected areawide for
Monday into early Tuesday, ahead of increasing chances of showers
and a few possible thunderstorms, later Tuesday through Thursday, as
models indicate the Desert Southwest cutoff low finally weakening
and ejecting across the Rockies through mid week. Timing and
location of said ejecting system remains in question ahead of the
potential kicker system moving onshore across the West Coast by the
middle of next week. Temperatures look to warm back to at or above
seasonal level through the middle of the next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

KALS: Snow showers will continue across the area for another few
hours, dissipating this afternoon. Low MVFR clouds and southeast
winds will continue until this evening. Starting by about 08Z,
conditions will be favorable for fog formation, bringing things into
the IFR range until sunrise. Near the end of the period, low clouds
will continue as snow showers form over the nearby mountains.

KCOS: Patchy freezing fog will be in place across the vicinity for a
few hours into mid afternoon. Snow showers and fog should depart the
terminal 20-22Z, with breezy south-southwest winds. Later this
evening, winds will turn northwesterly with clouds moving from IFR
to MVFR. Gusty northwest winds will accompany continued low MVFR
clouds and snow showers moving over the Pikes Peak Region near the
end of this forecast period.

KPUB: Scattered snow showers will persist in the vicinity through
the next few hours, with some light snow occasionally drifting near
the terminal. Low MVFR to IFR clouds will persist along with
southeast winds. This evening, winds will turn more westerly and
then northwesterly as MVFR clouds stick around. Tomorrow, winds turn
southeast again and clouds increase as snow showers form over the
nearby higher terrain.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for
COZ064>068-072>075-079-080-087-088.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for COZ069>071.
Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT today for COZ077-078-083-
085-086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...WANKOWSKI
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.