Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

000
FXUS65 KPUB 220946
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
346 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

...BREEZY...WARM...AND SHOWERY TODAY...

HIGH CLOUDS NOW SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF
THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND UT TODAY...THEN ON
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. MAIN QUESTION FOR
US WILL BE HOW MUCH CONVECTION TO EXPECT.

NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS...SHOWING SCT TO NMRS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTENSIVE QPF OVER THE ERN
PLAINS. BELIEVE IT IS PROBABLY OVERDONE. HOWEVER...SAME BASIC STORY
IS TOLD BY THE WRF AND RUC...AND WITH INSTABILITY ON THE RISE ALONG
WITH UPPER FORCING...EXPECT AT LEAST SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID
DAY OVR THE MTS...SPREADING EWD THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS. PREC
H2O NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...AND STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A DECENT PACE
TO THE EAST...SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL. BIGGEST CONCERN
WILL BE NR THE KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...IF MOISTURE CAN HANG ON
LONG ENOUGH. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS PROGGED AT UPPER 30S TO NR 40...AND
LIFTED INDICES AT MINUS 3 TO MINUS 4...POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM
OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON CAN NOT BE OVERLOOKED. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL BE HIGHEST OVER BENT...PROWERS...AND KIOWA COUNTIES IN THE 22-
01Z TIME FRAME. MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...BUT COULD SEE
SOME PENNY-NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45-50 KTS IN THE
STRONGEST CELLS BEFORE ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO KS THIS EVE.

SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN PRETTY HIGH TODAY...ABOVE 11000 FEET. H7
TEMPS RISE TO ABOVE 9 DEG C THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR...AND WITH SW WINDS ON THE INCREASE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENT OF PRECIP
AND CLOUD COVER COULD PUT A CAP ON HIGH TEMPS BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT
IT STILL SHOULD BE A QUITE WARM DAY.

AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER AFD...STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WX DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. NOT SEEING ANY STRONG TRENDS TOWARDS WORSENING
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER. RH COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO THE 15 PERCENT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS WILL LIKELY BE GUSTING ABOVE 25 KTS AT
TIMES. BETWEEN THE MARGINAL PARAMETERS AND UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PRECIP
WILL AFFECT THE AREA...DO NOT SEE THE NEED FOR FIRE WX HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BEAR WATCHING.

CONVECTION SHOULD DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT...WHILE CLOUDY CONDITIONS HANG ON THROUGH THE EVE. WILL SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVE...ESPECIALLY
OUT OVER THE PLAINS...LEADING TO A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WEDNESDAY...MODELS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH PUSHING THE NEXT SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH
TO PRODUCE A LOT OF PCPN FOR THE CWA. IT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
FAIR SHARE OF WIND THOUGH...AND THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
PLAINS ON WED LOOKS GOOD SINCE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW 15 PERCENT. PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INITIALLY...BUT AS THE SFC COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD SOME TIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z WED EVE...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE E PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS KICKS EAST
RATHER QUICKLY...SO FEEL THAT ALL PCPN SHOUL;D COME TO AN END SOON
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. MAX TEMPS ON THU ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...THEN BOSSTING TO NEAR 80 F FOR THE PLAINS
ON FRI.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
NOW...AND CONTINUE TO PAINT A VERY UNSETTLED PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. EARLY SAT MORNING A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES CA AND NV...PRODUCING STRONG S-SW WINDS ACROSS THE CWA WHILE
CONVECTION APPROACHES THE CONTDVD FOR SAT AFTN. AT THIS POINT...SAT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY FOR THE E PLAINS.
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE STATE AS AN OPEN WAVE...THEN A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL US PLAINS ON SUN WHICH MEANDERS
THROUGH MON. PINPOINTING PCPN AREAS AND AMOUNTS IS NEAR IMPOSSIBLE
FOR THE TIME BEING...SO DECIDED TO STAY WITH THE POP GRIDS THAT THE
EXTENDED PROCEDURE PRODUCED. SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE THE COOLEST DAYS
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. S-
SW WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD GUST IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE TS THIS AFTERNOON...AS
SCT STORMS MOVE OFF THE MTS. STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE NR THE KS
BORDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLD-SCT SOTRMS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE TAF SITES. WINDS COULD BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY NR ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.