Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 251019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
419 AM MDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

Pretty quiet day expected before the next storm system moves in. Dry
SW flow will override the area, and should keep most if not all of
the CWA dry and warm, with temps a few degrees above average. Cannot
rule out an isolated afternoon shower over the higher peaks, but it
will be a very low probability. Breezy conditions and very low RH
will lead to near critical to critical fire wx conditions this
afternoon...but as previously noted the fuel status precludes any
Red Flag issuance due to the ongoing greenup.

Tonight...the upstream storm system will begin moving into the
Desert SW, and by early Thu morning could already start to see
some convection develop over the mountains and western portions of
the CWA. Plains should stay dry until a bit later on Thu, however.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

An active wx period is anticipated as a small closed low moves over
the region Thursday into Friday. This system has the potential to
bring locally heavy snow to the higher elevations of the
mountains...steady rain to the Pikes Peak region Thursday afternoon
into early Friday...and possibly severe weather to parts of the
plains on Thursday. The Memorial Day weekend looks Ok with just
isolated TSRA.

Thursday and Friday

...Severe Weather Potential...

By 12Z Thursday...closed low will be located over northeast AZ...and
it is forecast to move east-northeast towards the region. A surface
low is fcst to spin up over the se Plains. A well defined boundary
is fcst to lie from the surface low and into KS during the afternoon
time period Thursday. To the north of this boundary east-northeast
winds and relatively high dwpts will be noted. S of the
boundary...dry s-sw sfc winds are likely. Cold air aloft will be
advecting in as the closed low moves closer...and this will allow
lapse rates to approach dry adiabatic values during the afternoon.
Deep shear is fcst to be rather strong...40 knts. The boundary will
act as a focusing mechanism for the development of severe
thunderstorms. Given the degree of CAPE and Shear...large
hail...damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes may occur. At this
time the boundary is fcst to lie generally along and to the north of
the US-50 corridor.  If this boundary and the associated sfc low
should develop farther north...then the threat of severe weather
over the region would be much less as dry s-sw sfc winds would occur
over the plains. As of 06 utc...SPC has areas generally along and N
of highway 50 in marginal risk for severe weather with a slight risk
just north of the CWA.

The threat of strong storms Friday is very low as much cooler air
will be over the region.

...Snow in the mtns...

With temps cooling aloft...the temperature profiles across the
higher mtns will support snow. The heaviest QPFs are noted over the
Pikes Peak region and the S mtns. Since this will be a late season
snow event...I went ahead and issued a winter storm watch for the
top of Pike Peak. A foot or more of heavy wet snow will be possible
starting later Thursday into Friday. Lesser amounts will be possible
across the rest of the mtn tops.

People going into the mtns...especially above ~11000 feet...should
be prepared for winter weather conditions. The heaviest snow will
likely fall Thursday night into Friday morning.

...Steady precip in the Pikes Peak region...

Given the orientation and movement of the relatively small mid lvl
circulation center...the Pikes Peak region is likely going to see
the highest QPF with this system as favorable upslope (700 mb NE
winds of 20 to 35 knts) impinge on the eastern slopes. All guidance
show the QPF max over this region...although individual models vary.
Precip will likely develop Thursday afternoon and last into Friday.
It is possible that the greater Pikes Peak region could see an inch
or so of rain with this event (with snow at highest elevations).
This heavier precip may extend southward across the eastern slopes
of the Southern mountains...especially the wet mtns. The QPF max
will be strongly dependent on the track of the mid lvl closed low

As for flash flooding potential over the burn scars...the threat
will be there. The best time for heavier downburst rainfall will
occur during the midday THU time period. By later in the day Thu and
into FRI..I expect the precip to be more steady and not as intense.

Memorial Day Weekend...

Flow aloft will transition to generally light southwesterly during
the holiday weekend. Overall I expect isolated to scattered
showers/tsra in the afternoon in the mtns with more isolated
activity on the plains during the late afternoon and evening. Max
temps will return to seasonable values.

Later next week...

Ridge builds aloft with isold/sctd tsra during the afternoon and
evening. /Hodanish


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 359 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

VFR conditions will persist for the TAF sites next 24-30 hours.
Winds aloft and at the surface will generally be from the south to
southwest. A storm system will move through CO Thu into Fri and
will  likely affect the terminals with periods of MVFR to IFR due to
showers and storms...especially late Thu afternoon into Fri morning.


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
afternoon for COZ082.



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