Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 270526
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1026 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

00z models coming in still indicating a windy critical fire
weather day across most of the southeast plains. More marginal
areas will be extreme northern and eastern sections of the
district...but given that model dew points have had a moist bias
over the past few days...think that RHs will meet criteria in
spite of some moistening that comes in aloft later in the day.
Have updated grids to bump down dew points a few degrees and hoist
a Red Flag Warning for tomorrow. Meanwhile...some light snow will
move into the continental divide late tonight...with heaviest
snow expected to move in Monday night through Tuesday out west as
the upper trof moves across the area. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 427 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

...Snow for the Divide...Fire Danger for the Plains...

Next Pacific weather system is dropping south along the northwest
coast today and will be making a turn eastward toward Colorado later
tonight and Monday.  This system will bring widespread snow and wind
back to the Continental Divide by Monday afternoon, with scattered
snow showers until then.  It will also bring another bout of gusty
winds and high fire danger back to the plains Monday afternoon.
While relative humidities may not be as low as with some recent
events, the combination of gusty winds and dry fuels will compensate
making the fire danger enough to warrant a Fire Weather Watch for
the plains from noon to 6 pm Monday.  One will be issued here
shortly. Meanwhile, the Winter Storm Watch that was in effect for
the Continental Divide will be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning
from noon Monday until midnight Tuesday night.  Looks like generally
10-20 inches of wind-driven snow along the Divide during this
period. Travel will turn treacherous through the mountain passes
once again.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 427 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

Not many meteorological adjustments required from previous
meteorological reasoning with main concerns during the longer
term being elevated pop potential/QPF/snow amounts from Monday
night into Tuesday night as well as temperatures, gusty winds at
times and elevated fire weather concerns at times(especially
into early Monday evening and then again by next weekend).

Recent longer range computer simulations, PV analysis and forecast
model soundings indicate that forecast district will be impacted
by storm system into Tuesday evening/night, therefore will
continue existing fire weather highlights into early Monday
evening and Winter Weather Highlights into Tuesday evening, where
portions of the Continental Divide may experience an additional
12 or more inches of snow from sunset Monday into Tuesday evening
in combination with gusty winds.

In addition, the highest potential of precipitation over eastern
sections of the forecast district during the longer term is still
expected from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as moist low-
level flow interacts with upper level energy.

Then a return to drier conditions in combination with moderating
temperatures is anticipated from later this week into this
weekend as an upper ridging to zonal upper pattern develops over
and near southern Colorado during this time-frame.

It still appears that the highest potential for elevated fire
weather concerns during the longer term should be noted into early
Monday evening and then again by next weekend, primarily over
eastern locations. As always, WFO Pueblo will monitor closely.

The highest potential for gusty winds over the forecast
district during the longer term should be experienced from
Monday evening into early Tuesday morning and then again from
later Tuesday into Wednesday morning and once again by next
weekend.

Finally near to below seasonal late February/early March temperatures
are anticipated over the majority of the forecast district from
Monday night into Thursday with near to above seasonal
temperatures returning to many sections of southern Colorado from
Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1023 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

VFR conditions expected at the terminals over the next 24
hours...with winds increasing during the morning on Monday. Gusts
to 30-35 kts will be possible at all three TAF sites during the
afternoon. Winds will decrease after 01z. Meanwhile...the
Continental Divide will see snow spreading in during the day with
LIFR conditions expected by afternoon and evening due to SN and
BLSN.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Monday for COZ226>237.

Winter Storm Warning from noon Monday to midnight MST Tuesday
night for COZ058-060-061-066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
AVIATION...KT



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