Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 231003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
403 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Lighter winds are expected today as the upper ridge rebuilds over
the region.  Cold front is making progress southward through east
central Colorado and should move through all of southeast CO by 14Z.
Winds will pick up briefly behind the front this morning with some
gusts to around 25 mph...but core of these stronger winds stay well
east of the I-25 corridor according to HRRR.  Winds will shift
around from the east behind the front across the plains with
temperatures around 10 degrees or so cooler than yesterday. Mtn
areas will see readings similar to yesterday. Meanwhile...southwest
flow starts to pick up some moisture spreading it into western CO
through tonight.  GFS and NAM12 have been persistent over the past
couple days in bringing some some very spotty precipitation into the
southwest mountains in the afternoon.  Given this persistent
solution have added some very limited isolated pops across the La
Garitas in the afternoon...but any precipitation will be spotty and
very light and end during the evening hours.  Low temperatures
should be somewhat warmer out west given increasing high cloudiness.
Didn`t stray too far from blended guidance but did adjust valley
temperatures down a bit given past performance.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 403 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Primary longer term meteorological concerns include temperatures
and pops/higher terrain snow amounts at times.

Recent longer term PV simulations and forecast
model soundings indicate that a warm and relatively dry
southwesterly to upper flow pattern will continue over the
forecast district during the longer term with primary upper
disturbance(per recent PV analysis) impacting mainly western
portions of the CWFA(with precipitation at times) from Monday
afternoon into Tuesday evening.

In addition...snow amounts generally running in the 1 to 3 inch
range are anticipated over the higher mountains...especially over
portions of the central mountains from Monday evening into
Tuesday. potential of basically light precipitation is
projected from later Friday into possibly next Saturday...otherwise
generally dry and warm conditions are anticipated during the
balance of the longer term.

Finally...maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to run
above late October climatological averages over the the forecast
district during the longer term with warmest conditions
anticipated Tuesday and Friday in combination with generally
low-grade gradient winds. All in all...very pleasant meteorological
conditions are expected across the majority of southern Colorado
into late October.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 403 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

VFR conditions expected at the terminals.  Front should pass through
KCOS and KPUB before sunrise...though winds behind it should remain
around 10 kts or less.  Winds will swing around from the east then
southeast this afternoon with speeds under 15 kts.  Winds will
remain light and generally diurnally driven at KALS over the next 24
hours. Cirrus layer will spread in from west to east tonight. -KT





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