Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 012106
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
306 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE TONIGHT...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
ATTM.

ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES REMAINS....THE 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT OF BACKSIDE ENERGY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO
HELP DIG THE SYSTEM INTO WESTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE TROUGH THEN LIFTING OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 06Z AND
TO THE COLORADO AND KANSAS LINES AROUND 12Z.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE LOOKS TO
ENOUGH UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO OVERCOME THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPE AND DRY LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS I-25
CORRIDOR...WITH BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED NORTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 10K FT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 7K FT OVERNIGHT...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE AOA 9K FT AND A DUSTING TO UP TO AN 1 POSSIBLE
AOA 7K FT...MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WITH COOL AIR
ALOFT BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
STILL REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL...THOUGH WITH THE EXPECTED WIND AND
BRIEF NATURE...WILL NOT GO WITH ANY FREEZE OR FROST HIGHLIGHTS AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND TEENS AT THE PEAKS.

THERE COULD BY SOME TAIL END SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS AND
PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE A RATHER COOL AND DRY CAN
BE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

...PLEASANT BUT UNEVENTFUL WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED...

IF YOU LIKE UNEXCITING WEATHER...YOU WILL LOVE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. A STRONGLY POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WILL PERSIST...THANKS TO
A BLOCKING HIGH THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE WEST COAST. ORDINARILY A
FORECAST OF ZERO POPS FOR A 168 HOUR FORECAST IS PRETTY DARING...BUT
IT LOOKS PRETTY SOLID IN THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE EXPECTED BLOCK.
WILL SEE A FEW CLOUDS THU NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES IN NW
FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT AFTER THAT...EVEN CLOUDS WILL
BE HARD TO COME BY. ONLY CONCERN IS SOME NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS OVER
PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY FRI MORNING. MAY REQUIRE A FROST OR
FREEZE HEADLINE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...SINCE FORECAST TEMPS
ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN EXPECT WARMING
UNDER THE RIDGE. NW FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD HELP KEEP
US FROM GETTING TOO WARM NEXT WEEK...SO WE SHOULD SEE PLEASANT
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THE LOWLANDS AND 50S-6S FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. NEXT CHANCE OF ANY
PRECIP PROBABLY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND MORE
LIKELY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN...ALLOWING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES. UNTIL THEN...ENJOY THE UNEXCITING WEATHER! -ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FOR ALS AND
THOUGH 06Z FOR COS AND PUB. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30KTS TO COS AND PUB AFT 00Z WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW



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