Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 272114

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
314 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Upper level circulation across UT/Northern AZ is spreading moisture
into the western and southern portions of the area. Starting to see
an increase in convection across northern NM as of 20z.
Meanwhile...lee side surface low centered near KLHX has maintained
dew points in the lower to mid 50s and MLCAPES of 1000-1500 across
the far eastern counties...while west of this position...low level
moisture has mixed out with dew points in the 30s. Best CAPE will
remain across the eastern counties this evening where one or two
strong to near severe storms still looks possible through the
evening hours. Earlier runs of the hrrr were putting best threat for
lingering thunderstorms across the far southeast corner of the state
through 06z...but latter runs seem to be shifting focus to the
northeast of the surface least initially before another
convective cluster develops during the evening hours along the CO/NM
border. Will maintain scattered pops out that way through 06z.

Meanwhile...heavy rainfall and lightning will be the primary threats
with storms over the mountains through this evening necessitating
close monitoring of burn scars.

Tonight...most activity will diminish by 06z...though with the upper
level low edging closer...suspect some isolated activity will
continue through the overnight hours along the continental divide.
This should keep overnight lows a few degrees warmer than the past
few nights given increasing cloud cover.   Sunday looks a little
more active for the mountains as the upper low edges closer.  Sfc
low position doesn`t change all that while locations along
the southern I-25 corridor dry out...southeasterly sfc flow should
keep dew points in the lower to mid 50s across the eastern counties.
Again...deep layer shear will be weak...which will make heavy
rainfall...gusty winds and perhaps some small hail the primary
threat with the stronger storms out that way.  Heavy rainfall with
the potential to cause flash flooding on burn scars will continue to
be a risk for the mountain areas. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Sunday night-Tuesday...Latest models are in decent agreement with
the current short wave trough across the northern Arizona, shearing
out as it slowly moves across southern Colorado and into the Central
High Plains through the day Tuesday.  Moisture and weak upper level
divergence associated with the trough will be in place across the
area, and along with late summer solar heating, we will continue to
see daily chances of showers and storms across the region into the
early work week. Best coverage of storms will be over and near the
higher terrain in the afternoon and evening hours, though cant rule
out a few late night or early morning showers or storms across the
area through the period. The main threat from storms will be gusty
outflow winds with the stronger storms having the potential for
locally heavy rain and localized flash flooding, with weak steering
flow aloft. With expected convection and a weak backdoor front
keeping weak light upslope flow in place across eastern Colorado,
temperatures look to be at or slightly cooler than seasonal levels
for Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday-Saturday...Again, latest model solutions are in better
agreement than yesterday, with upper ridging building across
the state Wednesday, and increasing southwest flow aloft
across the area Thursday and Friday, as a deep upper trough across
the West Coast digs across Great Basin Thursday, and then lifts out
across the northern Rockies on Friday. With that said, a brief
downturn in convection looks to be in the offing on Wednesday,
with an uptick in convection once again Thursday and Friday,
especially across the ContDvd with proximity to passing system.
Temperatures through the end of next week to be at or slightly
above average.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 314 PM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites over the next 24 hours.
There is still a chance for VCTS at the KALS and KCOS terminals
through this evening.  Main threat will be gusty erratic winds up to
40 kts. Cigs will likely remain VFR though brief MVFR vis will be
possible with the stronger cells.  Thunderstorms will diminish for
the TAF sites during the evening hours with increasing high
cloudiness overnight.  Another round of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms can be expected for Sunday with predominantly VFR
cigs...local MVFR VIS associated with thunderstorms...and erratic
wind gusts up to 40 kts near the stronger storms.


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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