Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 241704
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1104 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

...Warm and generally dry today...

Currently...low clouds are slowly expanding over the NE portion of
the CWA, and will likely continue to expand over the next few hours.
Areas of stratus will be most likely east of I-25 and north of Hwy
50. Low cloud deck should dissipate by mid morning, leaving mostly
sunny skies for the rest of today.

Main concern today will be the potential for strong to severe storms
over a small portion of the CWA, generally from Eastern Pueblo
County eastward to the KS border, and north of Hgwy 50. A surface
low will depend to about 996 mb this afternoon, setting up over
Bent and Prowers counties late in the day. North of the surface low,
surface winds will back strongly in a moisture rich environment with
CAPE approaching 3000 J/kg. Along with bulk shear in the 40-50 kt
range, this environment will be conducive to supercell
development. The surface low will shift northward by late
afternoon, leaving only a short window of opportunity for storms
to develop in our area. The NAM keeps the area free of storms,
while other high res solutions such as the ARW and NMM develop a
couple cells in this area late in the afternoon. Given the
potential, will introduce low POPs for this period. The severe
threat looks mainly confined to Kiowa County, but could shift to
include more or less of our CWA depending on the surface low
development. Since all modes of severe wx would be possible with
any storms that form, will have to watch for this potential later
this afternoon.

Otherwise, just a warm and breezy day, with temps in the mid to
upper 80s over the plains and south to southwest winds gusting in
the 20-30 kt range this afternoon. Dry SW flow will increase by
evening, leaving us with a clear night with seasonal temps in the
40s for the plains and 30s for the high valleys. Rose

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Trough over the western conus will keep the pattern potentially
active over the region during this period. The most active day is
expected to be Thursday as strong to severe storms may occur.
Friday should be cool with quite a few showers/-tsra over the
region.

Wednesday...

Primary trough will still be just offshore of the Calif coast and
will be moving inland during this day. Mid lvl low over the region
will be southwesterly with a weak shortwave ridge moving over the
area. Expect mainly dry warm weather will only an isold tsra over
the higher terrain...and possibly a high based tsra over the
palmer dvd.

Thursday...

Trough moves inland and should be located over the Las Vegas region
by 12z Thu. system will develop into a broad closed low as it moves
towards the region during the day. A cool front will move across the
plains during early morning Thursday and upslope flow will commence
by midday over the area. Given the closed low moving towards the
area...modest mid lvl southwesterly flow aloft and upslope.
flow...conditions will be come favorable for rotating convection on
the plains...with the best chance attm n of highway 50.

As the low moves over the region Thu night...wrap around precip
is forecast to develop along the I25 corridor....especially from
Walsenburg northward. Scattered showers will likely continue
through the night across most of the region.

Friday...

Cooler weather is likely this day. Upper closed low will likely be in
the vicinity of the KS/CO/NE border by midday...with northwesterly
flow over the region. Given the rather cold air aloft...we should
see lots of showers and weaker tsra over the region...especially
during the afternoon.

Saturday...

Weak mid lvl ridge will move over the region during this day. Expect
mainly isold tsra during the afternoon...mainly over the higher
terrain.

Sunday...

Weak southwesterly flow aloft will once again redevelop over the
region as another pacific wx system moves towards the region. Weak
cyclogenesis is forecast to develop over the raton mesa and this
will allow upslope to develop over the plains. if pattern
develops...weak favorable deep shear will develop and we may see a
strong storm or two over the plains. Scattered tsra are likely
over the mtns on this day.

Memorial Day into early next week...

Broad trough will continue over the west. However...models disagree
on intensity of this trough. GFS is deeper with the trough while
EC is more progressive and not as amplified. if GFS
verifies...then area will see a better chance of precip while the
EC pattern will promote more of a dry pattern. For what it is
worth...the GFS spaghetti ensemble plots show a considerable
amount of variability in the troughs location/intensity... so
confidence in forecast is low attm for early next week. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1044 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Generally VFR expected across flight area next 24 hours under dry
and warm southwest flow aloft. However, there could be some spotty
late afternoon and early evening showers or storms over and near
the mountains, just north of the Palmer Divide and over the far
southeast plains. The primary concerns with any such storms would
be lightning and erratic downburst winds gusts to around 50 mph.
Window for convection would be about 20Z to 03Z. KCOS...KPUB and
KALS TAF sites should remain VFR next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW


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