Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 050540
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1140 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN LIGHT OF RECENT RADAR TRENDS. TWEAKED SHORT TERM SKY
COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

TWEAKED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM SKY COVER PER SATELLITE TRENDS. REINITIALIZED
FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CURRENTLY...

QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE STATE OF COLORADO AT 2 PM.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
SOME SHOWERS WERE MOVING ONTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. STORMS
WERE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH IS OVER THE CENTENNIAL STATE.

LOCALLY...SKIES WERE CLOUDING UP AS A DISTURBANCE OVER THE 4 CORNERS
LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE.

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND TSRA WILL RAMP UP AS HEATING CONTINUES AND THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG THE
CONTDVD REGION. SOME PRECIP IS LIKELY TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS...AND
CANT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL

HRRR DOES SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN BUT BELIEVE THE GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE WITH
RESPECT TO INTENSITY. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD.

MILD TEMPS LIKELY TONIGHT AS WE WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA.

TOMORROW...

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE CONTINUED TO BE PULLED UP IN ADVANCE OF THE
STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
COVERAGE OF PRECIP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
TODAYS PRECIP WILL BE. STORMS WILL BE MOVING EVEN QUICKER THAN
TODAYS ACTIVITY AS FLOW INCREASES.

A LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOMORROW SO BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL
EXTEND NE-SW ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

UPPER TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NRN
U.S. ROCKIES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL SHUNT THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT
WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE MORNING. AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH COOLER...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO OF
RELIEF CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WITH FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS TO THE NORTH.
ONE OF THESE COMES ACROSS WY/MT ON MONDAY.  CO IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN
FASTER FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH...AND MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...THE MAJORITY OF WHICH STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH.  BOTH NAM AND
GFS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR MONDAY...BUT
THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS...ALONG A DRYLINE.

ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON TUESDAY...THOUGH
DEW POINTS DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT HIGH BEHIND IT.  SHOULD BE ENOUGH
COOLING THOUGH TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS AS THE UPPER HIGH TRIES TO NUDGE NORTHWARD A
BIT.  GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE OF A BRIEF MONSOON MOISTURE TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS MORE LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS A TROF
DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE...AS CO COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THIS MAY
INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR BOTH
THURS AND FRI IF 50 DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT PAN OUT AS GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGESTS. BOTH MODELS PUT CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG...WITH A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR (30-40 KTS) WITH EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COULD BE A FEW
STRONG STORMS THESE DAYS ACROSS THE PLAINS...IF THESE DETAILS PAN
OUT. ITS STILL A WAYS OUT...SO THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CHANGE. THIS FRONT COULD BE STRONGER WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE
BEHIND IT AND HENCE MORE OF A CAP WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A DRIER
SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BEAR WATCHING. GRIDS WILL CARRY
ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST AREAS FOR NOW. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE ISOLD TS ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SAT AFTERNOON AND EVE. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF TS
AFFECTING THE TAF SITES IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF TS CLOSER TO THE KS BORDER
SAT AFTERNOON. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...ROSE


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