Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 012134
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
334 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...WEAKENING WAVE TO BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW AND RAIN TO SOME AREAS
THIS EVENING...

UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA VISIBLE ON SATELLITE PICTURES SPINNING OVER
NORTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY FILL...WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS...BRINGING AN END TO THE CURRENT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW
HAS BEEN FALLING OVER MANY OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS
TODAY...INCLUDING THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILL AREAS
ALONG I-25 SOUTH OF PUEBLO.  WEB CAMS INDICATE STEADY SNOW IN THE LA
VETA AREA TODAY...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
AT TRINIDAD.  SNOWFALL INTENSITIES WILL REACH THEIR PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN GRADUALLY DROP OFF AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...GENERALLY ONLY ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS.  FOR
EVERYBODY ELSE...A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

AFTER THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION LEAVES...THERE IS STILL THE WINTRY
COLD TO DEAL WITH.  ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DIPPING DOWN AROUND AND BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN MANY AREAS.
SINCE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY STARTED ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE WARMTH EARLIER THIS MONTH...NEED TO WARN THOSE
AREAS WHERE A FREEZE MIGHT OCCUR.  RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE EL
PASO...HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES WILL BE THE PRIME TARGETS.
SO...A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE HOISTED FOR THOSE AREAS FROM 9 PM
TONIGHT UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY MORNING.  OTHER AREAS COULD GET
CLOSE...TOO...SO IF YOU DON`T WANT TO TAKE A CHANCE...COVER YOUR
PLANTS.

MONDAY...WARMER AND DRIER. ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...AT LEAST THEY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY WERE TODAY. AND...AS AN ADDED
BONUS...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
TODAY...MAINLY JUST AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT OF LIGHTNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A MORE TRANQUIL BUT STILL SOMEWHAT ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN
AT TIMES ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE LONGER
TERM WITH PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING TEMPERATURES...POPS AND GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.

HAVE DEPICTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN COMBINATION WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IMPACTS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

THEN A PERIOD OF DRIER AND WARMER TO MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. FOR EXAMPLE...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES AS NOTED THIS WEEKEND TO THE 70S AND 80S BY THURSDAY.

LONGER RANGE COMPUTER SIMULATIONS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON AMOUNT
OF IMPACT THAT NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE TO THE FORECAST
DISTRICT FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH 12Z/1ST ECMWF
SUGGESTING THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AT 00Z SATURDAY SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY 12Z SUNDAY
WITH INCREASING WINDS AND GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AT
TIMES WITH THIS PATTERN.

THE 12Z/1ST GFS COMPUTER SIMULATIONS ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...INDICATING THAT THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AT 00Z SATURDAY WILL
SHIFT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY NEXT SUNDAY PRODUCING
INCREASED WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER
HAVE DEPICTED ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...PROJECT THAT WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER SHOULD BE REALIZED FROM THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST
FRIDAY WITH COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A SPRING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
PRODUCING SNOW AND RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH THE MOST LIMITED AND WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
THE MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE AFTER 06Z...WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW BECOMING VERY SPOTTY AFTER 12Z. ALL 3 TAF SITES WILL
SEE POSSIBLE SNOW AND OR RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT AT
KCOS. MVFR/IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE
SHOWERS...JUST DEPENDING ON SHOWER INTENSITIES.  AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SPOTTY MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ066-
068-073-075-080.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
COZ084-085-087-088.

&&

$$



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