Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

FXUS65 KPUB 181126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
526 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 526 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

...Cooler and Less Windy but Still Local Red Flag Conditions...

The cold front that moved through overnight has definitely helped
the fire situation.  Humidities have shown decent recovery in
response to the cooling temperatures and winds have really been shut
down for the time being.  The airmass has cooled off enough for
temperatures to fall back to near averages for this time of year.
Winds and humidities will generally be much less wicked than
yesterday across most of the area.  However, the plains of Las
Animas and Otero Counties will not quite stay out of red flag
territory.  Models have been persistent on keeping this area "in the
red" for one more day.  So, have hoisted a Red Flag Warning for this
area from 1 pm to 7 pm today.  Elsewhere, we could be looking at
local near critical conditions at times but, for the most part, red
flag criteria should not be met.  The Junkins Fire will be in this

Tonight, an upper disturbance will move through the northern
Rockies.  This disturbance looks on course to drop initially rain
showers but then 1 to 4 inches of snow across the central mountains
above 9500 feet overnight.  The area of snowfall accumulation will
most likely be from the Cottonwood Pass area northward but some
accumulation will also be possible down to about Monarch Pass.  Just
dry elsewhere overnight with cooler air filtering into the region.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 526 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

...Dry conditions to persist...

Wednesday and Thursday...Brisk winds across the higher elevations
will remain a concern Wed through Thu morning as a trough passes to
the north of Colorado. A cold front is forecast to drop down the
eastern half of the state Wed morning, serving to keep max temps for
both days in the 50s and 60s for much of the forecast area. It will
also drop temps overnight Wed into Thu to right below freezing for
most locations.

Friday through Monday...Ridge of high pressure over the desert SW
will gradually slide to the east over the weekend, with the ridge
axis expected to cross Colorado on Saturday. Dry and warm through
the end of the extended period, with max temps forecast to be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s for the plains, and 60s to lower 70s for the
high valleys. High level winds are expected to start
strengthening again on Monday. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 526 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Westerly flow will result in VFR for most parts of the flight
area for the next 24 hours. However, the Continental Divide from
the Monarch Pass area northward, will see a period of snow this
evening with 1 to 4 inches possible above 9500 feet. Most of the
accumulation will be north of Cottonwood Pass but some light
accumulation could occur as far south as Monarch by Wednesday
morning. Another concern will be local restrictions to visibility
due to wildfire smoke, particularly in and around the Junkins Fire
in the Wet Mountains of Custer County. For the KCOS...KPUB and
KALS TAF sites...VFR expected.


Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this
evening for COZ230-232-233.



AVIATION...LW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.