Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 212259
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
359 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 359 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

...Storm Pulling East...

Upper low center just about on the Kansas border, east of Lamar,
near Hartman late this afternoon.  It will continue a gradual
progression into northeast Kansas by sunrise Monday.  With the low
center still in the vicinity over western Kansas early this evening,
areas of mainly light snow and blowing snow will continue over the
far eastern plains this evening with some light additional
accumulations.  The Palmer Divide and the eastern mountains could
also see a bit more snow this evening.  Scattered snow showers
producing local light accumulations will be possible elsewhere this
evening.  Combining with the snow across the Palmer Divide and the
plains, winds gusting to near 40 mph at times will create areas of
blowing snow, locally reducing visibilities.  Roads will be icy and
slick in spots.  If possible, stay off the roads this evening.  If
you must go out, take it slow and easy.  Bridges and overpasses will
ice up first.  As the evening progresses, colder air moves in and
skies gradually clear, the rest of the road surfaces will follow
suit.

By Monday, this storm will be out of here. Upper high pressure
will rebuild rapidly over the area for a return to near or even
above average temperatures most areas, despite the recent bit of
snow we`ve had. You just can`t keep a good La Nina down.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 359 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

Minimal adjustments required from earlier longer term meteorological
reasoning, with primary concerns being temperatures, pops at
times(generally favoring the central mountains), gusty winds at
times and localized elevated fire weather concerns on
Thursday...primarily over eastern sections.

Latest longer term forecast model soundings, computer
simulations and PV/Precipitable water analysis suggest that
basically drier and warmer conditions will prevail over the
forecast district from Monday evening into Thursday as dry
northwesterly zonal flow aloft transitions to dry southwesterly
upper flow.

One concern is that increasing winds in combination with drying
conditions will allow for localized elevated fire weather concerns
at times Thursday(favoring primarily eastern sections).

A relatively quick-moving upper disturbance is expected to
produce increased precipitation potential over primarily Continental
Divide locations(especially the central mountains) from Thursday
evening into Saturday morning. Then, dry northwesterly upper flow
in the wake of the passing upper disturbance should allow dry
conditions to return to the forecast district from Saturday
afternoon into next Sunday.

The highest potential for gusty winds during the longer term
should be noted Monday night and then again from Thursday into
Friday.

Also, coolest temperatures during the longer term should be
realized Tuesday, Friday and Saturday, while warmest temperatures
prevail Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 359 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

Winter storm will continue for a few more hours and then move east
of the flight area overnight.  Still areas of MVFR to LIFR CIGS and
VSBYS to deal with through the evening and then improving to
primarily VFR all areas by Monday morning.  The KCOS TAF may have to
deal with some low CIGs and VSBYS occasionally this evening as snow
showers drift through.  But improvement should come by around 03z or
so.  KPUB and KALS are probably done with the low CIGS/VSBYS for
this storm.  All 3 sites, however, may have to deal with some
northerly wind gusts over 30 mph at times into the evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for
COZ095>099.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
COZ058>061-072>075-079>082.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ084.

&&

$$


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