260
FXUS65 KPUB 031000
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
400 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Hot and dry most areas today with spotty critical to near
   critical fire weather conditions across the valleys where
   fuels are still mitigated by green up.

 - Round of showers moves across the Central mountains tonight
   with upper trough. Nocturnal thunderstorms possible far
   eastern plains though probability looks low.

 - Mostly dry and hot conditions are expected for the midweek
   period.

 - Rain showers and thunderstorms expected to increase in
   coverage Friday through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 358 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Round of nocturnal convection has pushed eastward into KS early this
morning.  Easterly winds have ben advecting higher dew points back
westward into eastern CO with some areas of stratus developing
across portions of the southeast plains early this morning.

It looks drier today with westerly flow aloft spreading drier
airmass across the mountains into the adjacent lower elevations and
I-25 corridor.  A dry line will be lurking across the far eastern
plains today, but with less forcing, and moisture, not really
expecting any thunderstorm development along it.  So a dry day
expected with another round of 80s and 90s for the lower elevations
and 60s and 70s for the mountains.  Some spotty critical to near
critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the valleys
and adjacent lower elevations today, though conditions look less
widespread than yesterday as winds will be a tad lighter.  With
green up keeping fuels out of the critical threshold, no fire
weather highlights are anticipated.

An upper trough will move across the area tonight, spreading a brief
round of showers and isolated thunderstorms into the mountains.
Best chance of precipitation will be confined to the central
mountains but amounts will be spotty and light and quickly diminish
towards dawn.  This sends another cold front through the plains
overnight.  Will need to watch eastern plains overnight for
nocturnal convection as another low level jet impinges on the
southward advancing cold front.  HREF keeps convection confined
farther to the northeast so pops will remain silent overnight across
eastern areas.  -KT


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Tuesday - Thursday: For the midweek period, relatively quiet weather
is anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado. Flow
will be mostly westerly Tuesday as weak wave passes north of the
area, with flow then becoming northwesterly Wednesday and Thursday
as a ridge of high pressure builds across the four corners region.
Forcing will be rather modest during this period, even despite a
minor wave passage Tuesday. With that said, weak orographic forcing
is expected each day, and highly isolated showers are anticipated
each afternoon along the mountains. Otherwise, dry conditions are
expected for the region. Looking at temperatures, the hot pattern
continues even despite a minor cold front passage Tuesday. Much of
the area will warm to well above seasonal values for mid June.

Friday - Sunday: For the end of the week and through the weekend, an
uptick in active weather is expected. Northwesterly flow will
prevail over south central and southeastern Colorado during this
period. At the surface, winds will become more southeasterly to
easterly, and allow for better moisture return across the area,
particularly across the plains. While forcing will remain lackluster
during this period, the modest orographic forcing and increased
moisture will allow for more scattered showers and thunderstorms to
materialize across much of the region during the afternoons. Along
with that, some stronger, to even severe, thunderstorms will be
possible over the plains given the expected increase in instability
with the surging moisture. Questions do still remain though on
strong to severe thunderstorm potential, mostly on how much shear
develops. At this time, shear is anticipated to be on the lower side
for organized convection, but if a short wave/ripple embedded within
the northwest flow can pass over the area, an uptick in shear would
be expected, and could help with storm organization. As for
temperatures, a cool down is anticipated. Much of the region will
drop back down to around seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites with increasing high clouds
expected late this afternoon and evening.  Winds will be lighter
today with south to southwest winds picking up at all three TAF
sites with gusts to around 20-25 kts in the afternoon.  With the
upper trough passage tonight, another cold front will drop through
the plains bringing a wind shift from the north.  Winds look less
gusty with this frontal passage with timing after 06z for KCOS and
KPUB. KALS will also see a north to northwest wind around 10 kts
overnight the system moves across. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT