Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 171116

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
416 AM MST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 416 AM MST Sun Dec 17 2017

Stratus filling in across the southeast plains, though mid/high deck
is starting to obscure western edge along the I-25 corridor. So far
hard pressed to find any -FZDZ in obs or webcams, though have had
some reports of fog across northern portions of El Paso county
earlier tonight.  For the rest of this morning, high res models and
model soundings continue to suggest some fog and very light FZDZ
will be possible along the crest of monument hill where northerly
upslope will provide some weak shallow lift.  Otherwise stratus
should start to thin and lift by late morning, then break during the
afternoon. Any pcpn along the crest of the Palmer Divide should be
very light and not impact travel much.  Main concern will be patchy
dense fog across northern El Paso county through the morning.

Otherwise...area will remain dry today and much cooler, particularly
across the plains where highs will only attain lower 40s at best.
Western portions of the area will continue to see some mid/high
cloudiness ahead of the upper trof axis.  Clouds should clear out
for all areas tonight as northern portion of the trof axis shifts
east of the area and closed low becomes stalls out across southern
AZ. Lee trof starts to redevelop late tonight but suspect
temperatures will take a quick dive this evening once mid/high
clouds clear out. Valleys out west should radiate well and have gone
close to guidance for lows which would put readings in the single
digits to near 0. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 416 AM MST Sun Dec 17 2017

...Chilly starting Thursday...

Monday through Wednesday...Look for light west to northwest flow
across the region for the start of the work week, while an upper low
crosses southern AZ and NM Monday and Tuesday. This will lead to dry
and mild conditions for the CWA, with highs in the 40s to around 50F
for the high valleys, and 50s for the plains both Mon and Tue then
climbing to the lower 60s for Wed.

Thursday through Saturday...An upper low trough will drop out of
the PAcific NW into the Great Basin late Wed night, bringing snow to
the Continental Divide Overnight Wed into Thu. This trough will
cross the state through Fri morning, bringing cold air and a shot of
snow to all of the forecast area. The best shot of snow for the
plains and I-25 corridor will come Thu morning and afternoon, then
snow will taper off by late Thu night. Long range models indicate
that a secondary piece of energy drops south out of Canada on Fri,
bringing another chance for snow as well as even colder air for the
state Fri night through Sat. Maximum temps will be in the upper 20s
to mid 30s both Thu and Fri, then are forecast to not even make it
out of the 20s for Sat. The coldest temps of the extended period
will occur both Fri and Sat morning, with lows in the single digits
to right around 10F for most areas. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 416 AM MST Sun Dec 17 2017

IFR to low end MVFR Cigs expected through the morning at both KCOS
and KPUB with possible MVFR VIS restrictions at KCOS as winds shift
around from a light southeast component by 14z.  Shallow stratus
layer should break by 18-19z, though there is some potential that
stratus could persist a little longer at KCOS given light southerly
upslope component.  Otherwise, conditions will transition to VFR for
the afternoon across the plains with clearing skies later this
evening and overnight.  Winds at the terminals will remain under

KALS will remain VFR with light winds.  Some mid/high cloudiness
will be present through early evening before skies clear. -KT




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