Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 050519
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1119 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW...

CURRENTLY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN EASTERN WY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  DRY MID LEVEL AIR
HAS MADE ITS WAY OVERHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS STARTED TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST. SEVERAL MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS TRAPPED LEE WAVES HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE CWA...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT AREAS. SFC
DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MTNS DIMINISHING CAPE VALUES
UNDER 500 J/KG FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP
OUT IN THE MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGH
VALLEY AREAS. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY DIE OFF BY 03Z AS THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE BEGINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL TREND TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE DUE TO LOWER DEW POINTS AND
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER.

TOMORROW...

ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 100F ACROSS THE SE PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN AZ AND WESTERN NM.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONCE AGAIN...AS SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND MINIMAL CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS THE PLAINS
SUPPRESS CONVECTION INITIATION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LUKINBEAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...MONSOON RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND...

THE HOT AND DRY SPELL WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFT INTO ERN NM AND THE MONSOONAL PLUME REMAINS OVER THE
DESERT SW. WILL MAINTAIN LOW/ISOLD POPS FOR THE MTS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVE...BUT THIS MAYBE ON THE GENEROUS SIDE AS LAYER
RH`S ARE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE OVER SE CO. COULD END UP JUST
SEEING SOME MTN BUILDUPS AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED VIRGA...BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IN THE AREA. TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD
HIT THEIR PEAK WITH H7 TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 18-19 DEG C. WRLY
FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...SO THIS MAY SAVE US FROM BRUTAL
HIGH TEMPS...BUT HIGHS NR 100 DEGREES A GOOD BET FOR THE LOWER
ARKANSAS.

FRIDAY...WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL CA AND THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS EWD OVER TX AND OK.
THIS SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR A GOOD TAP OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW TAKES A TRAJECTORY NEWD INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES...AND IS PROBABLY TOO FAR NORTH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT OUR AREA. SO...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FOR THE PLAINS SEEMS
UNLIKELY. BUT THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM LATE FRI INTO SATURDAY...AND WITH THE HIGH PWATS AND
SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR THE MTS LOOKS
TO BE ELEVATED. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD MODERATE AND REMAIN
NR AVERAGE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE EXTENDED.

MOST RECENT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO...HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR OUR AREA IN
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...AS IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT
WE WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION ON A DIURNAL BASIS
ACROSS SE CO. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED NEXT 24 AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. SFC WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
AN ISOLD TSRA CANT BE RULED OUT WED AFTERNOON AT THE TAF
SITES...BUT PROBABILITY OF IT OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO EXPLICITLY
MENTION IN TAF PRODUCTS ATTM.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH


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