767
FXUS62 KMLB 071122
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
622 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

- Low chance for showers today and Sunday ahead of a cold front,
  isolated storms possible across the local Atlantic waters.

- Below normal temperatures with wind chills values in the 30s
  forecast across east central Florida early next week behind a
  strong cold front.

- Moderate risk of rip currents exists at area beaches today;
  deteriorating beach and boating conditions next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Today-Tonight...Greater moisture (PWATs 1.6-1.8") coupled with
some energy aloft will support isolated shower development across
east central Florida and the local Atlantic waters today, with
around a 20 to 30% chance of rain forecast. The greatest rain
chances are focused south of the Orlando metro and the Cape.
Isolated storms across the local Atlantic waters cannot be ruled
out, though limited instability does reduce confidence a bit. East
to southeast winds at the surface will prompt onshore movement of
any showers, though increasing offshore steering flow will cause
a shift to activity moving out across the local waters late this
evening into the overnight hours. Greater cloud coverage is
anticipated across east central Florida today due to the moist air
mass, with highs reaching the low to mid 80s. Temperatures then
fall into the 60s overnight.

Saturday-Sunday...Quasi-zonal flow aloft on Saturday will offer
little upper level support for shower development despite moisture
present across east central Florida. Light southwesterly flow is
forecast at the surface, with afternoon highs climbing into the
mid to upper 80s and lows generally in the mid 60s. By Sunday, the
quasi- zonal flow aloft is forecast to diminish as a trough digs
southward towards the southeastern U.S., with a surface low
developing near the Ohio Valley. Its attendant cold front is
forecast to begin approaching the Florida peninsula late Sunday,
with isolated showers possible out ahead of the front thanks to a
slight increase in moisture paired with better support aloft
compared to Saturday. Maintain around a 20% chance of rain
areawide, with low confidence in any storm development with this
activity. Temperatures on Sunday reach the mid 80s, with the begin
of a cool down noticed overnight with lows in the mid 50s north
of the I-4 corridor and in the 60s southward.

Monday-Thursday...The cold front moves south of the area on
Monday, with isolated showers and a stray storm or two possible
across the local Atlantic waters. An area of high pressure then
builds across the southeastern U.S. through the remainder of the
forecast period behind the front. Drier air filters in across east
central Florida from the northwest, with PWATs falling below 0.5"
helping to keep rain out of the forecast through at least the
middle of next week. Breezy northwest to north winds are
anticipated behind the front through Tuesday, veering to out of
the north to northeast and becoming lighter towards mid week.

The main concern behind the cold front will be falling
temperatures, with the coldest temperatures of the season thus far
forecast across east central Florida. Highs on Monday in the mid
60s north of I-4 and in the 70s southward take a steep dive into
the mid 30s to mid 40s Monday night into Tuesday morning, with the
coldest temperatures focused north of the I-4 corridor.
Aforementioned breezy winds overnight will lead to a wind chill
across east central Florida, with values generally in the low to
mid 30s across most of east central Florida Monday night into
early Tuesday. Afternoon highs fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s
on Tuesday, with overnight temperatures in the 40s to low 50s.
Wind chill values are forecast to be in the upper 30s to mid 40s
across much of the interior and along the coast north of the Cape.
By mid week, temperatures begin trending warmer (but still remain
below normal), with highs in the 70s and lows in the mid 40s to
mid 50s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast across the
local Atlantic waters through Sunday, with seas of 2 to 4 feet and
winds remaining below 15 knots. Isolated to scattered showers and
isolated storms will be possible today and again on Sunday out
ahead of an approaching cold front, with conditions remaining dry
through the remainder of the period. Boating conditions then begin
to rapidly deteriorate as winds veer to out of the northwest late
Sunday into Monday, increasing to 20 to 30 knots. Gusts to 35
knots will be possible. This will result in seas quickly building,
peaking at 6 to 12 feet Monday night into Tuesday. The highest
seas are forecast to occur across the Gulf Stream waters. Winds
then diminish and seas slowly subside towards the middle of next
week as high pressure builds across the southeastern U.S. behind
the front, with boating conditions slowly improving and remaining
favorable through late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 615 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Weak disturbance aloft combined with modest moisture is allowing
for a few sprinkles/light showers generally south of KMCO.
Potential remains low for MVFR CIGs early this morning, as
generally VFR prevails. Very weak pressure gradient in place with
light/variable winds eventually "backing" onshore along the coast
with afternoon sea breeze formation and slow march inland.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  64  83  66 /  10  10  10   0
MCO  84  67  86  67 /  20  10  10   0
MLB  81  67  84  68 /  20  20  10   0
VRB  82  66  86  67 /  30  20  10  10
LEE  83  64  85  66 /  10  10  10   0
SFB  84  65  86  67 /  20  10  10   0
ORL  83  67  86  68 /  20  10  10   0
FPR  82  66  86  67 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Sedlock