349
FXUS62 KMLB 101120
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
620 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect late tonight into early
  Tuesday morning across most of east central Florida due to below
  normal temperatures and wind chill values falling below 30
  degrees.

- Poor to hazardous beach and boating conditions are anticipated
  behind the cold front as northerly winds increase and seas
  build.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Current...Stratus has set up across much of east central Florida
early this morning out ahead of the approaching cold front, with
increasing cloud coverage anticipated as the front continues
southward. Additionally, showers along and immediately ahead of
the front are slowly moving across east central Florida, with CAM
guidance continuing to support activity slowly diminishing towards
daybreak as the front sags south of the area.

Today-Tonight...Behind the cold front, a tight pressure gradient
is forecast locally as an area of high pressure establishes itself
across the southeastern U.S. Breezy north winds are anticipated
across east central Florida today, with wind speeds of 10 to 15
mph and gusts up to 30 mph possible. Locally, rain chances fall to
near zero areawide as drier air filters in from the north, and
skies are forecast to gradually clear from north to south through
today. It will be noticeably cooler this afternoon, with highs
forecast to only reach the 60s across most of the area. The
Treasure Coast and areas near Lake Okeechobee will likely reach
the low to mid 70s. Tonight, the coldest temperatures of the
season so far are forecast, with lows falling well below normal
into the 30s across most of east central Florida. Areas along the
coast from Cape Canaveral southward are forecast to fall into the
40s. Breezy conditions are forecast to persist into the overnight
hours, causing wind chill values to fall into the mid 20s to mid
30s areawide. A Cold Weather Advisory goes into effect late
tonight into Tuesday morning for Lake, Volusia, Seminole, Orange,
Osceola, Brevard, Okeechobee, and interior portions of the
Treasure Coast west of I-95. Dress appropriately, keep pets
indoors, use portable heaters properly, and protect plants.

Tuesday...The surface high located across the southeastern U.S.
is anticipated to slowly slide southeastward towards Florida on
Tuesday, with dry conditions forecast to persist. It will be a
cool, breezy day across east central Florida on Tuesday, with
afternoon highs only forecast to reach the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Northerly winds persist at 10 to 15 mph areawide, with wind gusts
to 30 mph possible, especially along the coast. These breezy
conditions will support building seas across the local Atlantic
waters, which is forecast to cause high surf and breaking waves of
4 to 6 feet at the local beaches. A High Surf Advisory goes into
effect early Tuesday morning and will continue through 7 PM.
Additionally, a high risk of rip currents will be present at all
local beaches. Overall, entering the ocean on Tuesday is strongly
discouraged.

Winds will slowly diminish Tuesday night as the high slides
towards the area and the pressure gradient weakens. Another chilly
night is forecast across east central Florida, with overnight
lows falling into the mid to upper 30s near and north of the I-4
corridor and in the 40s southward. Some areas along the coast
could stay in the 50s, but also cannot rule out temperatures
falling a few degrees below what is forecast due to some light
northwesterly winds advecting cooler air towards the coast. An eye
will need to be kept on far northern portions of Lake and Volusia
counties, where patchy frost may be possible due to the cold
temperatures and light winds. Lower confidence in this for now,
but will continue to evaluate.

Wednesday-Sunday...The area of high pressure is forecast to
remain centered across the Florida peninsula mid week through
early weekend, keeping conditions mostly dry through the extended
period and rain chances near zero. North to northeast winds are
forecast through Friday, veering to out of the south to southeast
into the weekend. Wind speeds are forecast to remain below 10 mph.
Long- range guidance is hinting that the next best chance for
rain would be associated with the next cold front passage late
Sunday into Monday, but it is still a bit too early to say that
with a lot of confidence. Temperatures are forecast to gradually
warm as the high establishes itself across the area, with highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s on Wednesday and climbing back into the
70s and low 80s through the remainder of the period. Lows follow a
similar pattern, with lows in the 40s to 50s Wednesday night and
50s to 60s Thursday through Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast across the
local Atlantic waters today through Tuesday night. Northerly winds
of 20 to 30 knots with wind gusts up to 35 knots are forecast,
causing seas to build to 6 to 12 feet. A Small Craft Advisory is
in effect for the Volusia and offshore Brevard waters, and will
expand to include the remaining waters at 7 AM. Gale conditions
are forecast across the offshore Volusia and Brevard waters late
tonight, with a Gale Warning in effect from 11 PM tonight through
6 AM on Tuesday. As high pressure begins to establish itself
across the Florida peninsula and the local waters, winds and seas
are forecast to slowly subside late Tuesday into early Wednesday.
A return to generally favorable boating conditions is anticipated
on Wednesday, with north to northeast winds below 15 knots and
seas of 2 to 4 feet persisting through late week into the weekend.
Dry conditions are forecast through the entire forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 619 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

The strong cold front will be near KMLB at around 12Z continuing
its push south thru ECFL this morning. Much of the associated
shower activity has dissipated or pushed off of the coast, but
still cannot rule out a brief sprinkle/shower as it passes
through southward. Still dealing with some IFR CIGs out ahead of
this front, though conditions southward should improve through
mid-morning (post-frontal). Gusty WNW/NW winds will be the rule
of the day as the front pushes through. Speeds will approach 15
kts with frequent gusts to 20-25 kts. There may be a short period
this evening (around sunset) when winds diminish, but they will
ramp back up by mid-evening and continue overnight, again, 10-15
kts for most with frequent higher gusts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast
across east central Florida behind the passage of a cold front,
with a drier air mass settling across the area. Northerly winds of
10 to 15 mph and gusts to 30 mph are forecast today through
Tuesday afternoon, with minimum RH values falling below 35% near
and north of the I-4 corridor today and to 25 to 35% across most
of the interior on Tuesday. High pressure then settles across the
area late Tuesday, with winds subsiding and minimum RH values
remaining sensitive through late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  36  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  65  37  57  42 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  71  41  60  49 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  73  41  62  50 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  62  34  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  64  36  57  40 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  64  37  57  42 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  74  41  62  50 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ041-
     044>046-053-058-141-144-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for AMZ570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ570.

     Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday for
     AMZ572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Sedlock