323
FXUS62 KMLB 090748
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
248 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 248 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions forecast through this
  afternoon, with poor boating conditions then lingering across
  the Gulf Stream waters through midweek.

- Isolated showers forecast across Okeechobee and the Treasure
  Coast today. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions forecast through
  the remainder of the work week.

- Temperatures remaining near to slightly below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Today... High pressure builds across the much of the eastern U.S.
today. Despite this, an onshore north-northeast wind will keep low
level moisture in place, especially across the south. Models
suggests clouds clearing early in the day for northern areas
before rebuilding late in the day. This morning`s CAMs are rather
consistent in showing light showers develop across Okeechobee and
the Treasure Coast where weak wind divergence is modeled at 700mb
and low level RHs are greater than 85%. Have deviated from dry NBM
PoPs to include at least a 20% chance of showers for this area
throughout the day. Activity should remain shallow with a layer of
dry air above 700mb, and lightning probabilities remain below
mentionable levels. Further north, conditions look to remain
mostly dry. High temperatures range the mid to upper 60s near and
north of Orlando, with low 70s forecast further south.

Wednesday-Thursday... High pressure weakens Wednesday as a cold
front drops into the southeast U.S. The weak front then passes
central Florida Thursday before high pressure begins to rebuild from
the west. Only a subtle dip in temperatures will be realized with
highs falling a few degrees below normal Thursday afternoon. Highs
on Wednesday mostly spread the low 70s from Osceola and Brevard
northward, increasing into the mid to upper 70s across Okeechobee
and the Treasure Coast. By Thursday, highs fall into the upper 60s
and near 70 degrees from Orlando northward with temperatures in the
low 70s further south. Low temperatures widely spreading the 50s
Wednesday morning dip into the upper 40s and low 50s Thursday
morning. Can`t rule out a stray coastal shower from the Cape
southward on Wednesday. Otherwise, conditions remain mostly dry.

Friday-Monday... High pressure further builds across the state
Friday, persisting into the weekend. Low pressure moves offshore the
Mid Atlantic coast early Sunday morning, dragging the next cold
front across central Florida late in the weekend. A much stronger
area of high pressure then builds across much of the eastern U.S. on
Monday. Dry on Friday with modest rain chances creeping back into
the forecast this weekend. Highs near normal late week climb into
the mid to upper 70s this weekend before more widely ranging the 70s
Monday behind the front. Friday looks to be the coolest morning of
the period behind Thursday`s front, and interior lows are forecast
in the mid to upper 40s. Warmer along the coast and across Martin
county with lows in the low to mid 50s. Morning temperatures creep
upward through the weekend, reaching the mid to upper 50s across the
interior and upper 50s to low 60s along much of the coast and Martin
county.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Hazardous conditions continue across the Gulf Stream as seas 6-8 ft
slowly diminish. Small Craft Advisories continue for the Gulf Steam
waters through 4 PM. North-northeast winds peaking around 20-25 kts
early this morning are expected to diminish by sunrise, and the
current Small Craft Advisories for nearshore Volusia and nearshore
Brevard are set to expire at 7 AM. However, small craft should
exercise caution across these zones into late morning for winds of
15-20 kts. North-northeast winds later subside to 10-15 kts
across all zones into the afternoon. Seas diminish 3-4 ft
nearshore tonight with seas up to 6 ft offshore persisting through
late Thursday. Offshore flow develops mid week briefly increasing
15-20 kts early Thursday as a weak cold front passes the waters.
Generally favorable boating conditions are then favored Friday and
into the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast
across the waters through Wednesday, mostly south of the Cape. A
period of dry weather settles into late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1232 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

MVFR CIGs for all sites except the Treasure Coast and DAB as of
around 6Z. Improvements to VFR are forecast by around 8-9Z area-
wide, as lingering stratus behind a cold front clears. VFR
conditions then look to prevail through the remainder of the TAF
period, though will need to monitor guidance for the Treasure
Coast tonight into Wednesday morning, as some models suggest MVFR
CIGs returning to that area. Otherwise, elevated northerly winds
10-15 kts, with a few gusts to 20 kts, overnight will linger
through much of the afternoon today, before slackening towards
sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  52  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  68  54  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  70  58  74  52 /  10  10  10   0
VRB  72  58  76  50 /  20  20  10   0
LEE  67  49  70  50 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  68  52  72  50 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  67  53  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  72  58  77  49 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Leahy