979
FXUS62 KMLB 042353
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
753 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

- A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at
  east central Florida Atlantic beaches.

- Higher rain chances remain focused south of Orlando through at
  least Saturday. Greater coverage returns areawide late this
  weekend and into early next week.

- Temperatures warm slightly each day with peak heat indices
  approaching 100 to 105 degrees this weekend.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Now-Tonight...A cirrus shield is overspreading south-central Florida
this afternoon from ongoing showers and storms over the southeastern
Gulf. Low-level cumulus was beginning to build over the area but is
going to struggle more now with the cirrus overhead. GOES-derived PW
depicts the moisture gradient well across the FL Peninsula, ranging
from 1.3" PW near Jacksonville to 1.6" near Daytona Beach. Higher
values near 2"+ reside from near Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne and
southward. A surface boundary remains draped across south Florida,
which is where the highest coverage of precipitation is anticipated
for the remainder of today. KTBW radar shows scattered showers
forming from Osceola County southward, which is in line with current
forecast trends. Hi-res guidance favors higher coverage of showers
and isolated storms from Tampa Bay to Fort Lauderdale (50-60%), and
some of this activity could sneak into portions of Okeechobee and
Martin County around Lake Okeechobee before sunset. After the sun
goes down, lingering shower activity is forecast to gradually
diminish with temperatures settling into the 70s.

Friday...Modest 500mb height rises and little movement of the
stationary boundary to our south should result in a similar weather
story on Friday. Temperatures are forecast to climb by another
degree or so in the afternoon (upper 80s to low 90s), a trend that
will continue into the weekend. Stout onshore flow will carry a sea
breeze inland pretty quickly in the afternoon, with showers and an
isolated storm forming along it. Once again, higher rain chances (50-
70%) will be situated to the south of the Orlando metro, favoring
the Treasure Coast westward to Lake Okeechobee and the Kissimmee
River. With a little more surface heating, 0-3km lapse rates could
increase a bit, though mid level lapses are modest at best (under
6C/km). This forecasts keeps thunder chances under 55%, or about one
category lower than NBM guidance suggests. As activity shifts toward
southwest Florida early in the evening, drier conditions are
anticipated over east central Florida into Friday night. Consistent
lows stay in the mid 70s areawide.

Saturday-Wednesday (previous)...With small disturbances moving over
a mid-level moisture discontinuity and nearly-stalled front,
persistence remains key to our forecast. We will continue with a
north-to-south gradient (40-70%) for shower and storm coverage,
placing our highest chances for storms near Lake O and the Treasure
Coast. Aside from some onshore wind relief at the coast, it does
look to turn a bit hotter. Highs should touch the low 90s with heat
indices 100-105 deg F.

The weakness in the jet stream over Florida will allow more
disturbances to pass by, keeping a surface trough in the vicinity.
A few members develop an area of low pressure by around Tuesday
before sending it into the Atlantic. With 60-90% of EPS members
painting total moisture values at or above the 90th percentile for
early September, this nearly assures that bouts of unsettled weather
are on tap. Rain/storm chances are 65-75% and likely to increase as
we get closer in time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Seas have remained fairly steady-state today, around 2-3 ft at the
local Atlantic buoys. ENE winds around 10 kt or less continue with
10-15 kt speeds possible on Friday afternoon. A stalled boundary
south of the waters is forecast to gradually lift north into this
weekend, before another surface front approaches Sunday into early
next week. Rain chances will remain higher across the southern
Treasure Coast waters through the first half of the weekend,
gradually expanding northward into early next week. Seas mainly 2-4
ft through Friday, then 2-3 ft this weekend. Increasing wave heights
are possible over the Volusia and offshore Brevard waters next week
along and behind the next approaching front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Frontal boundary and associated moisture stalled across South
Florida tonight lifts into Central Florida Friday. Maintained
VCSH overnight at KVRB-KSUA for onshore moving ISO SH, and can`t
rule out a brief SHRA at KMLB-KDAB but held of VC mention at this
time. ECSB looks to develop early Friday around 16Z and move
quickly inland in this onshore flow, producing gusty conditions in
the afternoon behind the boundary at most of the terminals,
especially the northern ones including KMCO. Chances for afternoon
SHRA look a little better than the last couple days, but the
environment remains unfavorable for TSRA, especially across the
northern terminals. Decent easterly steering flow should usher
SHRA and any TSRA that manage to develop westward fairly quickly.
Highest chances broadly between 16Z-21Z at the coastal terminals,
and 17Z-23Z at inland terminals, including KMCO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  88  76  89 /  10  20  20  40
MCO  75  91  76  92 /  20  40  20  60
MLB  77  88  76  89 /  20  50  30  60
VRB  75  89  74  91 /  30  60  40  70
LEE  74  91  76  91 /  10  30  10  50
SFB  75  90  76  91 /  10  30  10  50
ORL  76  90  76  91 /  20  40  20  60
FPR  74  89  73  91 /  30  60  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Haley