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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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950 FXUS62 KMLB 130927 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 527 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 523 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 - Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall are forecast to continue across Florida over the next few days as Invest 90L moves east- northeast off the southeastern US. -Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts up to 4 inches possible today. Today-Tonight... Invest 90L is forecast to continue to slowly move east-northeast into the western Atlantic today. At the same time, a stationary boundary across northern Florida will sag southward across central Florida keeping the deep tropical moisture in place across much of the peninsula and allowing for continued high rain chances. Forecast PW values range from 1.8" across the north and 2.4" across the south, which will support scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered lightning storms to once again be possible through this evening. Rain chances will increase into this afternoon, with rain chances starting off across the south in the morning and spreading northward across the entire area into the afternoon and evening. Highest rain chances remain 80-90 percent areawide today. Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary hazard today, with locally heavy to excessive rainfall being possible. Stronger showers and storms will be capable of delivering a quick 1-2" of rainfall in an hour, leading to rainfall amounts of 1-3" today, with locally higher amounts up to 4" possible. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has maintained a Marginal to Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for east central Florida for today. Other storm threats include occasional cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and gusty winds. Temperatures today are forecast to be seasonable with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Friday-Saturday... Models remain in fairly good agreement for late week and into early weekend. Invest 90L is forecast to continue to move farther away from east central Florida as it moves northeast off the eastern US coast through the period. Locally, deep tropical moisture will remain in place as a stationary front lingers across north central Florida, allowing for high rain chances to continue. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered lightning storms are expected each day. Highest rain chances (PoP 70-90 percent area wide) will be on Friday afternoon, with rain chances slightly decreasing on Saturday as the ECM and GFS models begin to diverge from each other once again. Rain chances on Saturday will range from 40 percent across the far north to 80 percent across the south into the afternoon and evening. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3" are generally forecast through Sunday morning. However, locally heavy to excessive rainfall will continue to be possible, with WPC having east central Florida outlooked in a Marginal to Slight Risk of excessive rainfall on Friday, and at least a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of the ECFL on Saturday. Other storm hazards besides heavy rainfall will be occasional cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and gusty winds. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s each day. Sunday-Wednesday... Upper level high pressure across the Deep South will build over the Florida peninsula as it shifts north and eastward across the eastern CONUS through mid-week. This will cause the stationary front across central Florida to move southward across South Florida, with the higher moisture shifting south and east. Forecast PW values will range from 1.3-1.7" on Sunday, and 1.5-2.0" through mid-week. Models continue to be in disagreement through early week, with the ECM showing higher rain chances than the GFS through at least Monday, with the models coming back into better agreement Tuesday and Wednesday. Regardless, ample moisture will be present in the onshore flow to have scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms each afternoon. Temperatures will be seasonable through the period, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .MARINE... Issued at 523 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Today-Tonight... Invest 90L just off the east coast of Florida will continue to move east-northeast today away from the local area and into the western Atlantic. This will cause the stationary front across northern Florida to shift southward across north central Florida today. Winds will generally be S-SW south of the stationary boundary, and N-NE north of the boundary, with wind speeds of 10- 15KT, except 15-20 KT in the offshore waters of Brevard and the Treasure Coast this morning. Small craft should exercise caution in those waters through the morning. Seas 2-3ft, building up to 4 feet in the offshore Volusia waters overnight. Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers and scattered lightning storms will continue today, as deep tropical moisture remains in place, especially from Cape Canaveral Southward and generally along the coast. Friday-Monday... The stationary front will remain in place across north central Florida through the early part of the weekend before shifting southward across South Florida into early next week. Invest 90L is forecast to continue to move northeast off the eastern US coast. Winds generally will be S-SW on Friday with speeds 5-10 KT before becoming E-SE on Saturday afternoon. Winds will become easterly on Sunday as high pressure across the Deep South builds over the Florida peninsula and will remain into early next week. Speeds will increase to 10-15 KT on Sunday and continue through early next week. Seas 2-3ft will increase up to 4 ft in the offshore waters on Monday. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms will continue each day, especially across the Gulf Stream waters. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 123 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 KMLB WSR-88D remains relatively quiet early this morning. Have taken out prevailing "VCSH" wording for now and have concentrated more on MVFR CIGs/ISOLD IFR around ECFL. Expect a gradual lifting of MVFR CIGs in favor of VFR from mid-morning onward. CAMs seem to favor more aftn/evening convection today, than previous day (morning convection south) but will stay vigilant. Have added some aftn/early evening TEMPO groups. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 73 90 73 / 80 50 80 20 MCO 90 74 89 75 / 90 50 80 30 MLB 90 73 89 74 / 80 50 90 40 VRB 90 72 89 72 / 90 60 90 50 LEE 92 75 93 76 / 80 60 80 20 SFB 91 74 92 74 / 80 50 80 30 ORL 91 75 91 75 / 90 50 80 30 FPR 89 71 88 72 / 90 60 90 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Watson AVIATION...Sedlock