Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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102
FXUS63 KUNR 011725
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1025 AM MST MON FEB 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 217 AM MST MON FEB 1 2016

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS DEEP TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER LAS VEGAS. PLENTY OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS INDICATED BY STRONG CONVECTION
AND LIGHTNING CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA. WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AT THE MOMENT. CLOUD COVER IS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES. SOME LIGHT ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP
ON RADAR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WY AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS STARTING TO SHOW UP FROM LARAMIE TO KIMBALL. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. WEAK INVERTED
TROF EXTENDS NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST WY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA ARE MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WELL-ADVERTISED MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT. NAM AND
EC IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH GFS CONTINUING WITH A SLIGHTLY
FURTHER NORTH TRACK. SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR PATH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS SURFACE HIGH...AND NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO PRODUCE
LIGHT -SN FROM NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHERN SD. FOR THE MOST
PART...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS...WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT MAY SQUEEZE OUT 1 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCHES FROM THE NEMO
AREA...SOUTH THROUGH CUSTER. ADDITIONALLY...AREAS FROM WRIGHT WY
THROUGH EDGEMONT AND OELRICHS COULD SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE ROCKIES WILL OPEN UP SLIGHTLY
AS IT SHIFTS EAST. VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAIN WILL
STAND PAT ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...WHERE
AND INCH OF TWO COULD ACCUMULATE BY LATE TUESDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 217 AM MST MON FEB 1 2016

SHORTWAVE RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY RESULTING IN SEASONAL/DRY WEATHER.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RACES FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF -SN ACROSS
THE WEST GIVEN ORIENTATION OF LIFT/MOISTURE. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER THE CWA.
WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE. A
STRONGER LOOKING SYSTEM THEN SCOOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF -SN AND RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MST MON FEB 1 2016

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND
NORTHEASTERN WY AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY/SOUTHERN SD
TONIGHT AS -SN EXPANDS INTO THE AREA WITH AREAS IFR CIGS/VSBYS
DEVELOPING. NORTHWEST SD WILL SEE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10



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