Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 260859
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
259 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OTHER THAN A FEW LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. 300-500J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
OTHERWISE...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

MASSIVE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WITH THE REGION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. MAIN
THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF THE FA. HOWEVER A RIDGE
TOPPING IMPULSE WILL SHIFT A CORE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT OVER THE
REGION TUE...SUPPORTING THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S MOST LOCATIONS. REMAINED TAME WITH HIGHS GIVEN VERY MOIST
SOIL CONDS WHICH WILL QUELL TEMP RISES TO A DEGREE. DRY CONDS
EXPECTED MOST OF THE  PERIOD...SAVE FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT WHEN A CHANCE
FOR ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING TROUGH. IT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT MORE SUBTLE IMPULSES COULD RETURN IN NW FLOW
GIVEN SEMI-RIDGE FLATTENING BY THE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THIS WOULD RESULT IN ISOLD CONVECTION AT BEST. GROWING INDICATIONS
FOR MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGE FLATTENING TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND WHEN SOME
FORECAST SOLUTIONS LIFT THE PAC NE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE RIDGE. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT MUCH COOLER CONDS WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN. HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCY PER THIS EVOLUTION REMAIN WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF/GEM WELL OUT OF SYNC BY NEXT SAT. THE GEM/ECMWF OFFER
MUCH FLATTER AND ACTIVE FLOW BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON AT LEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.LINGERING MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED ALL
AREAS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC



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