Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 170029
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
629 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 624 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ZIPPING EASTWARD
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS PRODUCING SOME STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND MIDDAY.  THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WAS BLASTING THROUGH THE EASTERN BORDER AREA OF SOUTH DAKOTA
BY 18Z. WIND SPEEDS HAD ALREADY BEGUN TO DECREASE A BIT BY 19Z AND
DECREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS MIXING
DOWN ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DROP SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AFTER MID AFTERNOON. THE EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE TRACE HAD
LEVELED OUT IN RAPID CITY WITH MODERATE COLD ADVECTION COUNTERACTING
THE FULL HEATING OF THE SUN.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...A HIGH AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAINTAINING A NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND AND
A DRY SUBSIDENCE AIRMASS THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. THE RIDGELINE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ALLOWING
RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE RAPID
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD POCKET WILL RESULT IN LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY REMAINING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DIPPING BELOW NORMALS BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FRIDAY EVENING WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 624 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

UPPER RIDGE ON SATURDAY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BREAK
DOWN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE TRACKS TO OUR
NORTH. UPPER RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES FURTHER FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY
RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPS. SW FLOW ALOFT RETURNS FOR MID WEEK AS
UPPER TROF WORKS THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES...WHICH COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. TEMPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL MAINLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 624 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVE. WDSPRD MVFR CIGS
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF WYOMING THIS EVE AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...10





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