Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 010544
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1044 PM MST SUN JAN 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST SUN JAN 31 2016

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION EARLY MONDAY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE SOUTHERN TRACK...MAIN AFFECTS FROM STORM WILL BE
SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. SREF/NAM SATURATE LOW LEVELS ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING/FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...RESULTING IN SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. MAY BE A
LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW SOUTH OF A KGCC-KRAP/KIEN LINE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST SUN JAN 31 2016

UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SEEING A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW. SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST QUICKLY WITH SNOW ENDING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THIS
TIME...GENERALLY A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE CWA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.
UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...AND A
COUPLE OF DRY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK
HILLS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S ON TUESDAY...WARMING TO NEAR AVERAGE VALUES IN THE
30S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST SUN JAN 31 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND
NORTHEASTERN WY AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS PUSHING CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE SW THIRD
MONDAY AFTERNOON...TRENDING TO IFR BY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE
BLACK HILLS AND NE WY AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS/EXPANDS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JC


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