Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 050926
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
326 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 316 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING
IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE BLACK HILLS. FORCING IS WEAK AND
A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE OF MUCH OF THE REGION SO
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. THERE IS ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE WEST EDGE OF
THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 316 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE WORK WEEK AS AN ACTIVE
NW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERWARD A DRY TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THERE
IS SOME INCONSISTENCY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THURSDAY AND BEYOND...BUT
A GENERALLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE IN SMALL
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNTIL MORE AGREEABLE SOLUTIONS
EVOLVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 316 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY
STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13





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