Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 151722
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1122 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 716 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOW SOME PATCHY FOG FROM THE BLKHLS INTO SWRN
SD...SO HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE FCST THRU 15Z. GIVEN SUNNY SKIES
AND SHALLOW MOISTURE THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THAT TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO PRODUCE SUNNY SKIES OVER THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AS THE THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE INCREASES AND THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS FOR MID WEEK...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE CWA
ON THURSDAY. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WILL SEE THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY THURSDAY EVENING OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER
TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WITH INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BUNKERS
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...MLS





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