000
FXUS63 KUNR 151733
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1133 AM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

MID LEVEL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED INTO SCT -TSRA OVER NORTHWESTERN
AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
LINGER OVER NWRN SD FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE BLACK
HILLS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL CREATE ANOTHER CHANCE OF -TSRA OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...BRINGING INCREASED LL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. DIURNAL HEATING AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF TSRA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 304 AM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS DEEP UPPER TROF SLOWLY ENTERS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ALSO MAY BRING THE FIRST REAL ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TO PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THROUGH TEMPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS COOLER AIRMASS WORKS ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND PUSH ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED AROUND SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...MLS