Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 011025

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
325 AM MST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 315 AM MST Wed Mar 1 2017

Current surface map places weak high pressure across eastern
Montana into Wyoming. Upper trof moving across the northern plains
this morning with embedded shortwave crossing the western Dakotas.
Shortwave is bringing a few snow showers from the Black Hills into
northwest South Dakota. Most of snow shower activity will be over
early this morning with shortwave moving east. Next fast moving
shortwave in northwest flow crosses the area tonight. Best chance
of snow showers will be in northeast Wyoming into the northern
Black Hills. Temperatures today and Thursday near guidance with
highs mainly in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM MST Wed Mar 1 2017

Upper level ridge builds across the Rockies into the Northern
Plains Friday and Saturday with dry conditions and warmer
temperatures. Snow free areas of western South Dakota will reach
the 60s on Saturday. Cooler along the Nebraska border where
southerly winds will be coming off deeper snow pack. Low level
thermal ridge shifts across the area on Sunday as upper level
ridge begins to break down. Another warm day, especially across
the plains east of the Black Hills.

GFS/ECMWF/GEMs in decent agreement with upper trof moving across
the Rockies late Sunday into Monday with deep surface low tracking
north of the Black Hills. Best chance of snow will be across
northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota with upslope
enhancement for northern Black Hills. Strong cold advection and
tight pressure gradient will result in windy conditions behind the
cold front. Upper ridge rebuilds for the middle of next week with
dry weather and above average temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued At 315 AM MST Wed Mar 1 2017

Isolated to scattered snow showers from the Black Hills into
northwest South Dakota will end early this morning. Local MVFR/IFR
visibility with the snow showers, especially in the northern
Black Hills. Outside of the snow showers, area of MVFR ceilings
across northwest South Dakota into central South Dakota will
dissipate from northwest to southeast this morning. Another round
of snow showers will impact northeast Wyoming into western South
Dakota tonight, with MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibility.




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