Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 072016
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
216 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DIURNAL
HEATING AND INSTABILITY ALONG A THETA-E RIDGE ARE COMBINING WITH
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK AT THIS TIME RESULTING IN RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED
CONVECTION CELLS. CAPE AND SHEAR PLOTS IN THE MESO-MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WOULD BE OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND POSSIBLY NEAR THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA TOO. THE REGION OF BEST INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE W-E ORIENTED
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SHEAR PROFILES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK ON WEDNESDAY SO WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
ANY SHOWERS OR TSTM ENDING DURING THE EVENING...WITH DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY. UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
FAR WRN CONUS WILL SLOWLY PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL
STRENGTHEN...BRINGING ABOVE AVG TEMPERATURES AND GENERARLLY DRIER
WEATHER TO THE AREA. UPPER WAVES WILL CROSS MT INTO ND AND THE LOW
WILL BRIEFLY RESTRENGTHEN...BRINGING OCCASIONAL SL CHC POPS MAINLY
OVER NW SD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SOME MVFR CONDS OVER THE BLACK HILLS WITH LOW CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON. SCT -TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN ACROSS THE CWA AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN HEAVIER PRECIP.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE


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