Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 271714
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1114 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 210 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST..WITH WEAK TROF IN MONTANA/WYOMING. LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 210 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE REGION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. AXIS OF WARMEST AIR
WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FA. HOWEVER...A RIDGE TOPPING IMPULSE WILL
SUPPORT A DECENT BUBBLE OF WARMER AIR OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S AT MANY LOCATIONS. HEIGHT
FALLS PER THIS ADVECTING IMPULSE COUPLED WITH LINGERING LL MOISTURE
AND TERRAIN HEATING MAY SUPPORT A SHRA/TS OVER THE CENTRAL BLACK
HILLS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES /ALBEIT LOW POPS/
WILL ARRIVE TUES.   FORECAST MODELS ARE OFFERING A FLATTER VERSION
OF THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE...A SOLUTION THAT WAS ANTICIPATED GIVEN
CONTINUED ACTIVE NORTHERN PAC FLOW WITH AN EASTERN BIAS TO THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH. STRONGER INDICATIONS FOR MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGE
FLATTENING TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK REMAIN AS PROGRESSIVE ACTIVE
PAC FLOW SPILLS EAST ONCE AGAIN INTO THE CONUS. FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON TIMING/DETAILS WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
HAVING RUN-RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES. EVEN THOUGH MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY
IS POOR...THE SIGNAL FOR RIDGE FLATTENING REMAINS...LENDING STRONGER
CONFIDENCE THAT COOLER AND ACTIVE FLOW MAY CERTAINLY RETURN TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON


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