Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 250922
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
322 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

STACKED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA AS AN
UPPER TROF DIGS DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE MID 40S. ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A SECONDARY LOW
FORMS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA. THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES TO THE AREA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MAY BRING A FEW ELEVATED TSRA TO
SRN/SCNTRL SD THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL CROSS THE NRN AND
WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY/TONIGHT CREATING CHANCES
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

ON TUESDAY...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO UTAH. WITH WEAK
FLOW...IT WILL BE HARD TO GET ORGANIZED CONVECTION...HOWEVER DIURNAL
HEATING COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S MAY PRODUCE
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
TUESDAY...ENERGY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN POTIONS OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TODAY WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. READINGS WILL WARM A
LITTLE ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

A GENERAL DRYING/WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SLOWLY BRINGING AN UPPER
LOW FROM UTAH ON WED MRNG ACROSS SRN CO BY THU MRNG...AND THEN
INTO WRN KS BY FRI MRNG. A WEAK S/W TROF WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE
SRN CWA ON WED...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY THU. THE UPPER FLOW
GENERALLY WILL BE WEAK AS THE CWA IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW...AND THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ARE TO THE NORTH. S/W RIDGING
WILL WORK OVER THE CWA LATER THU AND FRI. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE NWRN CONUS ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO
RETURN...AND THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CWA AS THE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTS SRN CANADA. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THU-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NERN ND/SRN MANITOBA WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
LOW CLOUDS AROUND ITS WRN PERIPHERY AND ACROSS THE NRN CWA. AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS AND LCL IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NERN WY AND
NWRN SD TODAY. KGCC WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS...BUT
THE LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KRAP. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NRN AREAS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...BUNKERS





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