Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 251447

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
847 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Issued at 842 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

A weak upper wave is pushing through the ridge, helping to produce
some scattered showers across portions of western SD this morning.
Surface low is located over northeastern WY, with southeasterly
winds over the western SD plains. Updated forecast for continued
chances of showers today. Precipitation will push east of the CWA
by this evening with the wave.


.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 322 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Upper ridge axis is now crossing the nrn Plains with SW flow aloft
moving in. WV imagery shows a series of upper waves crossing ern MT
into UT bringing extensive mid/high clouds to the CWA. Surface
analysis shows a trough across ern MT into wrn SD with southerly
winds across cntrl SD and westerly becoming northwesterly winds
across ne WY. KUDX radar showing quite a bit of returns across cntrl
SD but these are all due to the mid level clouds/virga. Stronger
upper wave across WY will push across sw/cntrl SD this morning with
precip developing through the day east of the CWA border. While
can`t completely rule out a few sprinkles here and there especially
from any virga which does end up reaching the ground...overall think
the CWA will remain dry today. Highs will reach the low 60s to mid
70s with the warmest spots across sw to scntrl SD. Winds will become
NWrly through the day today as the surface low pushes east of the
area. Upper ridging will be reinforced across the region Wednesday
with dry and mild weather continuing. Highs will reach the low 60s
to low 70s. Lows will again reach the upper 30s to 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

The upper ridge will be located over the western two-thirds of
the CONUS through the weekend, although a quick moving shortwave
trough will cross the forecast area on Friday night. Warmer than
average temperatures will continue. The GFS again depicts dry
weather as the shortwave moves through, while the ECMWF indicates
a bit more available moisture, so will include low PoPs and a
chance of showers for Friday night through Saturday morning as a
weak cold front crosses the forecast area. A lee-side surface
trough will develop over eastern Montana on Thursday, resulting in
strong low and mid-level warm air advection, making Thursday the
warmest day of the week. Cooler air flowing into the region behind
the Friday night cold front will make Saturday the coolest day,
although temperatures will still be around the average for this
time of year. Another shortwave trough will bring low chances of
showers from Sunday night through Monday night with a slight
cooldown in temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued At 322 AM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Mainly VFR conditions expected today and tonight with mid-level




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