


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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431 FXUS63 KUNR 130722 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 122 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... -Continued dry today with temps warming up through Monday -Hot Monday with storms returning -Unsettled conditions Tues-Wed with a significant cool down for Wednesday -Semi-unsettled and warmer by the end of the week && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday) Issued at 121 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Eastern Pac upper ridge will support downstream unsettled flow into the Northern Plains with another stronger upper trough arriving by midweek. Before that, a period of shortwave ridging will support warming temps through Monday, with triple digit heat returning for Monday on parts of the SD Plains. Upper level NW flow continues today. A weak impulse will traverse the flow and support sfc trough through the region today. Not much effect locally from this system other than a wind shift. Expect warmer temps today with highs in the 80s and 90s under mostly sunny skies. Digging NW flow upper trough will support downstream ridging over the region Monday as associated WAA allows for even hotter temps. Expect highs in the 90s and lower 100s Monday, warmest on toward central SD. Lee side trough will shift east and provide the focus for scattered showers and storms Monday afternoon as deeper moisture shifts north into the region. This will be in addition to terrain forced storms on the BH. Marginal shear will be in place with sufficient ML CAPE, both enough to support a few pulse strong cells. Upper impulse will shift east overnight with storm chances in the evening, shifting east late. Cool front will shift south over the region Tues with another set of impulses expected across the region, supporting chances for showers and storms, best chances in the afternoon and evening. Strong cold front will then move through the region with much cooler air expected in the area by Wed. Highs will be 20 to 25 degrees below seasonal averages Wed with 50s in the BH and 60s on much of the Plains. Expect continued chances for showers/storms with a decent cold pool aloft and cyclonic flow over the region. Temps will moderate some Thur, with things drying out, although low chances for showers/storms will linger through next weekend given lingering unsettled westerly flow with sufficient moisture in place. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued At 1125 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 VFR conditions through the TAF period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC AVIATION...15