000
FXUS63 KUNR 112212
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
312 PM MST WED DEC 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 11 2013

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM EASTERN
MT THROUGH FAR EASTERN WY AND CO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO SHOW NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH WEAK RIDGING
MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH MILDER AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...CURRENT TEMPS RANGE FROM THE TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD...TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. WINDS ARE
FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WARMER AREAS...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS FURTHER TO THE EAST.

QUIET WX AND A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM
OUT MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL SD. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST EVERYWHERE
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
WY AND ESPECIALLY FAVORED AREAS OF THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. SOME
GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OF THE NORTHERN HILLS...ESPECIALLY AROUND SPEARFISH.

THE BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH MILDER
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 10 DAYS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE SD PLAINS...COLDEST OVER
HEAVILY SNOW COVERED AREAS...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY
AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
REGARD TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IT BACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST INTO
THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL AT LEAST BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE BLACK
HILLS AREA...BUT THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF COOLING IS STILL UNCERTAIN
FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE
BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WY ON THE MILDER SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 11 2013

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
BRINGING GENERALLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW MAINLY TO NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. A SECOND FAST MOVING WAVE MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW TO NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT COLDER AND MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST WED DEC 11 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13