Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 120918
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
218 AM MST Mon Feb 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 216 AM MST Mon Feb 12 2018

An upper trough is strengthening across the western CONUS this
morning with flow aloft across the CWA becoming more
west/southwesterly. Arctic frontal boundary has dropped south into
Nebraska. KUDX radar shows light snow has developed across the SD
plains just north of the Black Hills. A series of weak waves will
push in from the WSW which will keep the light snow across the area.
The best chances for snow will be this morning across northeast WY
into western SD mainly along and north of I-90. The snow will then
transition southward this afternoon...mainly affecting southwest to
south central SD. Snow amounts still appear to be relatively
light...with accumulations two inches or less. Highs today will be
limited to 5 to 15 degrees. Quiet weather will return late this
afternoon into the evening as drier air pushes in. Strong warm air
advection will begin in the overnight hours into Tuesday morning
with 850mb temps rising some 15-20 degrees in 12 hours. Highs
Tuesday will reach the 30s to low 40s...then upper 30s to near 50 on
Wednesday. Models are showing the next cold front moving through the
region Wednesday night into Thursday. Snowfall will once again
accompany this frontal passage; however, snow accumulations right
now are expected to be in the 1-3" range. Latest trends then show
warmer and drier air for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued At 1009 PM MST Sun Feb 11 2018

Areas of IFR conditions will develop during the rest of the night
mainly over northeastern Wyoming, the Black Hills area and
southwestern South Dakota continuing into Monday afternoon as
light snow spreads across the region. Local LIFR conditions
possible near the Black Hills and far southwestern South Dakota
through Monday morning.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...10



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