Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 230448
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1048 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LAST OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY...AS UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. INITIAL
SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM UPPER TROF TRACKS INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
SUFFICIENT MUCAPE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS MAIN TROF APPROACHES THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE BLACK HILLS WHERE SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...STRENGTH...AND TRACK OF STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY AS THE WAVE TRACKS
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. HIGH POPS ALSO JUSTIFIED OVER THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS FOR POTENTIAL UPSLOPE PCPN. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
EARLY IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA. PCPN WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WITH A MIX LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE MAIN BAND OF PCPN SHOULD MOVE
EAST OF THE CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM...ADDITIONAL
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE FLOW WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED...
WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS. MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A
WARM UP LIKELY AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOHNSON






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