Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 122232

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
432 PM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Upper trough sits across the western CONUS this afternoon with upper
ridging over the eastern half. Upper flow over the Dakotas has
continues from the southwest with a series of waves crossing MT into
ND. The cold front which pushed through western SD this morning has
just cleared south central SD. Gusty northwest winds across the
western SD plains will decrease this evening as surface high
pressure quickly moves into the Dakotas. Latest model runs continue
to show a weak upper wave pushing through central SD tonight, but
now with weaker forcing and less available low level moisture. So
have reduced pops to slight chance since it looks like most areas
will remain dry. Quiet weather is expected Friday as the next trough
digs deeper over the Pac NW into the Great Basin. Seasonal temps are
expected Friday with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. The western
upper trough will cross the area Friday night into Saturday with a
surface low developing south of the CWA Fri night...then sliding
into eastern SD Saturday. Cooler air will return to the area
Saturday with chances for precip. However the bulk of precip with
this system will stay well east of the CWA. Snow will develop over
the Black Hills late Friday night into Saturday...and may include
some upslope enhanced precip over the northern Hills. Total
accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Upper ridging
will dominate the weather pattern for at least the first half of
next week. This will bring dry weather and warmer than average
temperatures. Highs in the 60s and 70s will be possible.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued At 431 PM MDT Thu Oct 12 2017

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Gusty
northerly winds on the SD plains will subside this evening and
then become breezy from the south on the SD/WY plains Friday.




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