Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KUNR 182312
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
512 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS BROAD UPPER TROF STRETCHING FROM THE PAC NW
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...ASSOCD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED THROUGH OUR WRN HALF OF ZONES AND CONTINUING TO ADVANCE
SEWD. TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 THIS AFTN GIVEN THERMAL
RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD AND GOOD MIXING. TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
IN THE SRN BLKHLS IN AREA OF LO LVL CONVERGENCE.

TONIGHT...TSTM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN BLKHLS EWD ONTO THE PLAIN INVOF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL TSTM CHANCES ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS MORE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER TROF. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN PULSE
TYPE GIVEN WEAK SHEAR...BUT DEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC DRY LAYER COULD
RESULT IN STRONG GUSTS. ANY HAIL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE SRN HILLS IN AREA OF LO LVL CONVERGENCE AND STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL TSTMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WITH ENERGY FROM
UPPER TROF OVERHEAD AND ANOTHER SFC TROF PUSHING THROUGH. VERY
WARM TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

ZONAL UPPER FLOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION TO RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OTHERWISE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. SOME LOCATIONS ON
THE PLAINS MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 506 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED TSRA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS SW SD. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NE WY AND SW SD WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCT-ISOLD TS LATER TONIGHT AS ANOTHER IMPULSE TRAVERSES THE
REGION. LOCAL MVFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CELLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JC






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.