Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 171721

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1121 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 252 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Upper jet continues to move over the northern plains, as a
shortwave pushes into the region. Skies are mostly cloudy over the
CWA as mid/high clouds stream in. Radar is showing echoes over
parts of the area, and obs indicate precip is reaching the ground
in northeastern WY. Surface low is over southeastern
MT/northeastern WY. With light and variable winds, temperatures at
3AM are in the 40s to lower 50s.

Upper wave will cross the region today, bringing strong winds and
continued showers to portions of the area. As the surface low passes
through beneath the strong upper jet today, westerly winds will
increase, especially across the southern part of the CWA. Sustained
winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 50 mph are expected. Have expanded
Wind Advisory to include south central SD, assuming gusty winds can
mix down. Heaviest band of showers will be across northwestern SD
with the best frontogenesis and upper divergence. Another cool front
will begin crossing the region this afternoon, with more showers
developing across northeastern WY and the Black Hills. Precip and
winds will diminish this evening, with dry weather and light winds
by midnight. Highs will range from near 60 across the northwestern
CWA to the mid 70s across south central SD. Lows will fall into the
mid 30s to mid 40s.

Under a cool airmass, highs Tuesday will be in the mid 50s to mid
60s. Winds will be relatively light from the west, and skies will be
partly cloudy. Mainly dry weather is expected ahead of the next

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

A weak disturbance will move through Wednesday bringing
small chances for showers. Near normal temperatures are expected
Wednesday and Thursday as an upper level ridge builds over the
Rockies. Most guidance now showing upper ridge building into the
northern Plains Friday into early next week resulting in
temperatures 5-10F above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 1119 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Scattered showers an possibly a few thunderstorms will move
eastward from northeastern Wyoming into western South Dakota
during the late afternoon and evening. Local MVFR conditions are
possible with the showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail. Gusty west to northwest winds are
expected by afternoon into the evening hours over parts of
northeastern Wyoming and southwestern into south central South


SD...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for SDZ027-



SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...Helgeson
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