Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 180847
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
147 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 134 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. A CLIPPER CAN BE
SEEN DIVING SEWD ACRS ALTA. AT THE SFC...SUBSTANTIAL PRES RISES
ARE SPREADING ACRS SASK INTO ERN MT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER.

TODAY...AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER WILL RACE QUICKLY SEWD INTO THE NRN
PLAINS...SCOURING OUT MUCH OF THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE MUCH WARMER TEMPS FOR THE CWFA...WITH
40-50KT 850MB WINDS ATTEMPTING TO MIX TOWARDS THE SFC.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN FULL MIXING WILL NOT BE
REALIZED AND NO WIND HIGHLIGHTS APPEAR NECESSARY. SOME BLSN AGAIN
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACRS NWRN SD. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE/LIFT FOR A FEW -SHSN ACRS OUR NRN HALF OF ZONES...MOST
NOTABLY THE NRN BLKHLS.

TONIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE CWFA AS CLIPPER
PUSHES FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION. THERE IS DECENT UPSLOPE
COMPONENT FOR THE NRN BLKHLS AND HAVE BOOSTED POPS FOR THAT AREA.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 134 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
ALLOW WARMER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE 30S AND 40S. ON SUNDAY...A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES...SWEEPING MORE ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SUNDAY
LOOKS LIKE A WINDY AND COOLER DAY WITH SNOW POSSIBLE. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPS AND SNOW CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 134 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH COULD CREATE SOME
BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE






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