Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 311117
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
517 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING SFC
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE RIDGE
WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK MID/UPPER CAA TO
DECREASE STABILITY AND PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW
CAPE VALUES AND WEAK SHEAR PROFILES SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE SUNDAY...AND BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
STORMS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MONDAY...THEN COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER WESTERN SD...MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS UNDER THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER





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