Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 310933
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
333 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Upper ridging continues across the central CONUS with the main axis
sitting across the High Plains...while an upper trough/low is moving
into the PacNW. Strong surface high across cntrl Canada with ridging
into the ern Dakotas/upper Midwest. Southerly flow will continue
across the area today with surface winds mainly out of the SE. Drier
low levels and increased CIN today means no precip is expected.
Instead for today skies will be mostly sunny skies with highs in
the 80s to lower 90s across the plains and 70s/low 80s across the
BH. Little change to the upper level flow is expected Thursday as
the axis slightly shifts eastward. Thursday will be a repeat of
today highs again in the 80 to low 90s across most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Wed Aug 31 2016

The upper and thermal ridge will peak over the area for Friday
bringing the warmest day of the long term. Low pressure over
eastern MT will push a dry-line into the CWA and given tight
pressure gradient, gusty southerly winds on the SD plains. Gusty
southwest winds may also develop behind the dry-line with deeply
mixed boundary layer foreseen. Fire weather headlines may be
needed given the combination.

Upper ridge shifts east for the Labor Day weekend with southwest
flow Saturday and Sunday transitioning to an large scale upper
trough over central North America. A cool front will slide through
the CWA Saturday bringing cooler temperatures and chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Pops warranted into early next week as
impulses within trough swing through. Best chances for precipitation
appear to be Sunday and Monday coincident with best upper forcing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued At 333 AM MDT Wed Aug 31 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Breezy southerly
winds will develop across much of the area this morning and
persist through tonight.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...Helgeson
AVIATION...Helgeson


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