Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 191727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NOW JUST EAST OF THE
CWA...WITH MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
ND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH JET STREAK OVER ND AND NORTHERN SD. SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING HAVE
DISSIPATED...WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES NOW IN PLACE. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL
SD...BUT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPS ARE
MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH 30S OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS.

WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THOUGH TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE STRETCH. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES TODAY...WARMEST TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. 50S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST...REMAINING BREEZY AT TIMES
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST. SUNDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS WIND ACROSS THE
PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. THE NEXT COOL
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BRINGING BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE FRONT CROSSES. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS POSSIBILITY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THESE
AREAS...THOUGH THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK.


&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER TO THE
CWA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LATEST RUNS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY
FASTER MOVEMENT TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS FURTHEST NORTH WITH
UPPER LOW...ECMWF NOW SHOWS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH/BUT WRAPPING UP
FURTHER EAST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. RESULT WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WELL AS
INCREASING GRADIENT/WIND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WRAPS UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
GENERAL CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH
AT NIGHT FOR A BIT OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN ON THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...10






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