Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 252329
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
529 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016

Clouds were slow to clear over the eastern counties early this
morning but have since cleared out.  Light northwest winds are
slowly starting to shift around to the south as surface high
pressure shifts to the south and east.  Highs have reached into the
low/middle 50s across the forecast area.  For tonight, anticipate
mostly clear skies and light winds, with some short range models
suggesting patchy fog in low spots across the southeast, which would
also pair up with where clouds were later to clear and winds will be
lightest. Will carry just patchy for mainly low spots along rivers
and into the southeast counties. Still anticipate lows will drop
into the 30s, and may stay a few degrees warmer out west where
southerly winds develop later tonight.  Highs tomorrow mix into the
lower 60s with southwest winds increasing to 10-15mph by the mid
afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016

As upper ridge moves east Saturday night and upper trough crosses the
SW U.S., southwest flow aloft across the Rockies results in a lee
low strengthening in eastern CO vicinity. Pressure gradient
between intensifying low and departing surface high should keep
southerly winds up Sat night and lows in the mild mid 40s.

Short and medium range models in pretty good agreement with strong
upper trough crossing the Plains Sunday and Sunday night.
Strengthening surface low will result in strong southerly winds at
the surface during Sunday afternoon and evening. Isentropic lift
in the "warm sector" Sunday morning will bring with it shower and
thunderstorm chances. Rain is likely Sun afternoon and evening
before front comes through and dry slot wraps east and northeast
around occluding system. CAPE is not large with the system, and
somewhat elevated so don`t expect widespread or intense
thunderstorms.

Models differ some by Monday with ECMWF keeping upper low closer
to Kansas and wrapping light precip down to the KS/NE border area.
Other models lift occluding system farther north faster, with
significantly lesser chances of precip lingering into Monday. Have
gone with the majority of model forecasts and kept Monday dry in
eastern KS.

Beyond that, dry weather is expected for the rest of the work
week, with temperatures closer to seasonal normals from Wed
through Fri, with highs mainly mid to upper 40s and lows in the
upper 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 529 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will
increase to around 12kts by 15Z Sat and continue through the end
of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...53



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