Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 300842
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
342 AM CDT Sat May 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

Upper lead trough axis was over western Missouri while a secondary
trough and associated energy was located across central Kansas north
into Nebraska. The cold front has cleared most of the forecast area
except for areas southeast of I-35 at 08Z. The front will continue
to slowly move off to the southeast and clear the area by 10Z. Some
light rain will be possible through 12z or so with lift from the
secondary upper trough. Some sprinkles or very light rain will be
possible through mid morning before isentropic downglide kicks in
through the rest of the day. Forecast soundings suggest that the low
level moisture and clouds will be slow to erode through the day and
may even see clouds linger in the east well into the afternoon
hours. Gusty winds behind the front will gradually decrease this
afternoon as high pressure builds southeast and pressure gradient
relaxes. Highs today will top out in the mid to upper 60s. Tonight
with light winds and partial clearing, temperatures will fall into
the mid 40s across north central Kansas and into the lower 50s in
east central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

Small chances for precipitation exist for much of the forecast.
Initial chances come late Sunday night as south winds return to the
high plains behind the surface high. Modest northwest flow aloft
results in isentropic lift over mainly western locations with
rapidly saturating 700-850mb layer through the night there. 850mb
winds still are only in the 10-20kt range and keeps strong moisture
convergence in check so have kept PoPs modest. Deep layer,
cloud-bearing shear still reaches respectable levels in the veering
setup and enough CAPE present for marginal hail potential. Any
activity would likely diminish Monday morning, though a similar
situation occurs Monday night into Tuesday morning. Moisture and
instability continue to increase to the west with subtle warm front
likely pushing north overnight. Convergence signal is not as strong
as that of Sunday night but moisture transport is better for at
least a slight PoP in western areas overnight, potentially spreading
east Tuesday as the upper flow begins to flatten. Models continue to
suggest at least minor opportunities for convection through Friday,
primarily from storms forming upstream and continuing into the area,
with perhaps somewhat better chances around Thursday night when a
weak synoptic front could sink in. Have some concerns westerly mid
level flow could strong enough to bring an elevated mixed layer in
and keep storms in check, and have kept PoPs below 40% for all
periods.

As for temperatures, have lowered Sunday`s highs a few degrees with
some low cloud potential and easterly low level winds persisting,
but highs should return to the mid 70s Monday in better mixing, with
warm frontal passage pushing highs into the 80s for the remainder of
the work week barring festering daytime precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

For the 06z TAFs, a cold front has already passed through KMHK and
will move through KTOP/KFOE by the early overnight hours, resulting
in winds veering to the north-northwest and becoming gusty at times.
The showers and storms along the front have weakened and become more
scattered, but still cannot rule out a few storms clipping the TAF
sites so have kept only the mention of VCTS. The low-end MVFR
ceilings are lagging well behind the front and the model guidance
has not been handling the timing of these ceilings into the TAF
sites very well. While only low-end MVFR cigs are noted across north
central KS at this time, a few models continue to suggest the
possibility of some periods of IFR ceilings, so have kept a mention
of sct IFR cigs. MVFR cigs will likely persist through much of the
day and possibly through the evening hours as well. Expect winds to
diminish during the afternoon and evening hours as surface high
pressure advances into the area.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Hennecke






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