Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 300802
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
302 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES STATES. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE CENTERED OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NE
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST KS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OK WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHWARD. SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB WINDS WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTH TX INTO THE TX PNHDL AND SOUTHEAST CO. THE RESULTING
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY CAUSE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM FROM SOUTHEAST CO...EASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN KS AND
MOST OF OK. THE ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA...SO NORTHEAST KS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...THERE MAY BE A
FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IT WILL FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A QUIET DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
INITIALLY THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED BUT AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS OVER THE REGION FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE LESS THAN MARGINAL ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POSSIBLY SOME STRONG STORMS. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND APPEAR TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. ON
SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD TRACK CLOSER TO NORTHEAST KS.
ALTHOUGH A BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. NEXT WEEK THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION
TO THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CHANGE AND
TRACKS THE WAVES EAST OF THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG. THE ECMWF AND GEM SHOW A WAVE CRASHING
THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT THEN TRACKS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FOR THE 06Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE AREA.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...HENNECKE


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