Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 190453
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1153 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

Expansive upper trough continues to spin over the Desert Southwest
region this afternoon while much of the area remains under westerly
flow aloft. Sfc high pressure in place has kept winds light and
variable this afternoon through the evening. Diurnal heating has
produced scattered fair weather cumulus throughout today, progged to
dissipate around sunset.

Sfc high axis gradually shifts east tonight as winds shift towards
the southeast and increase to near 10 kts during the afternoon
Thursday. Mostly clear skies tonight create another cool evening
with lows in the upper 40s. Stronger mixing of warmer air towards
the sfc tomorrow led to raising highs a few more degrees to near 70
in addition to the slower progression of thicker cloud cover
expected to arrive by late afternoon. In regards to the southwest
upper trough weakening as it shifts across the southern plains, rain
chances were reduced or removed during the afternoon. All short term
guidance has trended slower with this precipitation given the lack
of moisture present and the available lift being delayed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

Temperatures on a slow rise from Friday into Saturday from low to
middle 70s with overnight lows in the 50s. Weak wave continues to
move across the KS/OK border and bring chance of rain along with
it. With small shallow instability to work with have gone with
only showers Thursday night with just a slight chance for
lingering showers on Friday. Consistent signal in the NAM for
overnight convection to develop in the strengthening LLJ out over
the high plains and may advect a slight chance for storms into our
southwestern counties on Saturday, so have carried just a slight
chance for this. By the evening hours, storms that may have fired
along the bowing dryline out in western Kansas could clip our far
western counties into Sunday as they move northeast aided once
again by the veering LLJ and later redevelopment out west along
the dryline.

Devil will be in the details as each chance for rain influenced by
the previous one. At this time higher chances for stronger storms
to spread eastward across the area focus more on the Monday
timeframe as trailing front from the northern low ushers the
dryline eastward over our western counties on Monday afternoon.
Convection over the area through the evening hours will once
again impact precip chances for Tuesday. Monday system is progged
to have another one eject out of the western trof on Tuesday,
lifting an effective front over the forecast area along with
considerable instability. This wave moves east of the area through
Tuesday night with diminishing rain chances into Wednesday. Scale
of the features will make for variability in the forecast, but
important takeaways are potential for severe storms west on Sunday
with chances increasing and spreading into eastern Kansas through
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

I`m not confident that ground fog will form at any of the
terminals this morning and have VFR condtions through the next 24
hours.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Gargan



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