Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 212320
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
520 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

Next northwest flow positive tilt wave currently  making its way
southeast across the northern central Plains. This trough will not
only move through the area dry tonight...but will also aid in
keeping any precip associated with the desert southwest low well to
the south of the county warning area through Thursday. The push of
cooler air associated with it and a period of frontogenetical lift
late tonight and early Thursday morning will support some lower
clouds moving southeast across the cwa later tonight...but gradually
thinning through midday Thursday.

The net effect will be partly to mostly cloudy skies through
tonight then becoming mostly sunny north to south across the area in
the late morning and afternoon hours. Despite the afternoon,
sunshine still expect highs Thursday to be 5 to 10 degrees cooler
than today with highs mainly in the 40 to 43 degree range north to
south.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

An upper level trough will move across Texas Thursday night with the
trough axis extending northeast across eastern Kansas into Illinois.
Moisture and forcing to remain well south of the forecast area so
will keep the forecast dry. A surface trough will move southeast on
Friday and should move into the western CWA in the afternoon.
Temperatures should warm into the 45 to 50 degree range in the
afternoon. Winds will shift to the northwest Friday night then back
to the west and southwest on Saturday, with highs in the low to mid
50s and lows in the 20s.

Another shortwave trough will drop southeast Saturday night and move
across the Plains and into the Ohio Valley by Sunday morning. Lift
associated with the shortwave passes to the northeast mainly across
Iowa and Missouri. Forecast soundings show dry air in the low to mid
levels and expect mainly to see high clouds with the system. Good
mixing on Sunday to around 850 mb will yield highs in the upper 50s
to lower 60s and have gone a few degrees warmer than guidance,
mainly in northeast Kansas. Mild overnight lows are expected
Saturday morning with readings in the mid and upper 30s.

Northwest upper flow continues across Kansas Monday through
Wednesday although the GFS and ECMWF differ by mid week with the GFS
ejecting another wave out of the Rockies. Will continue a dry
forecast on Wednesday. Highs in the 50s Monday and Tuesday cooling
off into the 40s on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 509 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

A portion of MVFR ceilings will drop south into the area later
tonight. The guidance is suggesting that these ceilings should
scatter out of the area around 18Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Sanders





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