Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 140907

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
307 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Upper low continues to move into the southern plains, while
shortwave trof moves southward out of the northern plains towards
the state. Drier air comes in with the northern stream, while
southern low continues to advect in some higher clouds for today.
Advection is neutral to slightly cooler for today, but think this
will be countered by better insolation through higher clouds than
the mid deck we had in place Monday.  Overall sensible weather
should be northwesterly winds around 10mph with some higher
afternoon gusts towards 20 mph, with highs in the lower 50s.  Think
radiational cooling will be stronger on Tuesday night with lows
falling into the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Upper flow is split over the central CONUS through the late week.
Weak surface high pressure moves east across the Southern Plains
Wednesday and Wednesday night with low-level warm air advection
increasing. Temps Wednesday look fairly similar to today. High
clouds look to sink in from the north Thursday, but 850mb temps
into the 10-15C range should boost temps into the 60s Thursday and
Friday. A weak wave passes to the south Saturday for weaker winds
but still warm temps. Precip chances finally increase late Sunday
afternoon and peak Sunday night and Monday as upper energy phases
and moves a cross the central CONUS. Minor instability continues
to support a thunder mention but progressive nature of this trough
keeps amounts from being heavy. Another modified Pacific airmass
follows to keep temps above normal Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1121 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light and
variable winds through 10Z will turn out of the northwest and
increase to 10-15 kts after 15Z.


Issued at 307 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Fire weather concerns continue to ramp up for late the week.
Thursday afternoon looks to be the more troublesome day with
forecast soundings exhibiting characteristics of an elevated mixed
layer moving in with west to southwest 850mb-surface winds.
Pressure gradient tightens somewhat for some gustiness to develop,
though not terribly strong. Slightly weaker and more backed winds
bring more moist conditions for Friday. Have sided on the warm
and dry side of guidance, with minimum RH values in the mid to
upper 20s Thursday and upper 20s to lower 30s Friday, giving rise
to a few hours of Very High indices for much of the area Thursday
and just touching this category at fewer locations Friday. Would
anticipate conditions to trend toward lower RH with time but Red
Flag wind and RH values look unlikely.




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