Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 242320
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
620 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

A deep upper level low located near the eastern Wyoming/Montana
boarder has been lifting northeast today.  With this, a wave
rounding the trough axis has lifted into central Kansas causing
scattered thunderstorms and showers to continue this afternoon.
There is an unstable environment ahead of these showers with
mesoanalysis indicating up to 2500 J/kg of CAPE available. Shear
remains largely unidirectional near 25kts and mid level lapse rates
are unimpressive.  The abundant moisture and CAPE, however, could be
enough to see isolated strong wind gusts.  Heavy rain later in the
evening may end up being the main threat with this system.  The
first push of precipitation looks to move east of the area by
midnight before another wave pushes north ahead of the front.  This
round will bring more showers and storms mainly to very eastern and
east central Kansas by early morning.

PWATS this evening and overnight remain near 2 inches and there is a
chance for some training storms and locally heavy rainfall.
Generally total rainfall looks to be around an inch and a half,
although locally heavier amounts are expected.  The front will push
through northeast Kansas in the morning tomorrow bringing
precipitation chances to an end from the northwest to southeast
throughout the day.  Skies will begin to clear and colder air will
be ushered in behind the front.  High temperatures tomorrow will be
much cooler than this past week, topping out in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Sunday night high pressure will build into the region as the cold
front pushes south across Texas. A dry and cooler period is expected
across the area with high pressure in control through much of the
upcoming week. Temperatures will be on the cool side with lows
dropping down into the 40s Sunday night and Monday night. Highs will
be in the lower 70s Monday and in the mid 70s on Tuesday. Airmass
will modify by the end of the week. Moisture looks to be minimal
with the Gulf cut off for much of the week with some return flow
beginning at the end of the week. Models bring a chance for showers
and a few storms with the passage of a mid level trough and modest
moisture return Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Occasional thunderstorms will impact TAF sites through the next
several hours. Storms will be heavy at times with visibility
occasionally falling below 1SM and winds possibly gusting to 30
kts or more. Storms are likely to end close to 07Z at MHK and 15Z
at TOP/FOE. There is a small chance for cigs in the 008-015 range
to develop for a few hours as precip comes close to ending, but
for now have not included in TAF due to low confidence.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch



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