Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
FXUS63 KTOP 271740
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1140 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014
The region will remain in northwest flow aloft, which will keep the
weather dry through the short term. At the surface a high pressure
ridge is currently sliding across the area, and will continue
eastward today. The stratus still over northeast KS is starting
erode on the western edges, and may linger a few more hours. There
is also some mid level clouds that will overspread from the
northwest later this morning leaving us partly cloudy today. Low
temps this morning will be dictated by the current cloud cover,
which has been keeping temps in the upper 20s. Those areas clearing
out late may reach the low 20s while the rest of the area will drop
into the mid to upper 10s under clear skies and light winds. As the
surface ridge moves off to the east winds will shift to the
southeast, and the pressure gradient will slightly increase.
Although winds should stay under 15 mph with gusts up 20 mph
possible especially in north central KS. High temperatures today
will range from the mid 30s in far northeast KS to the mid 40s in
central KS. Tonight there is not much change in the overall pattern
with lows in the mid to upper 20s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014
Friday through Saturday, The amplified upper level trough along the
eastern US coast will lift northeast into the western Atlantic.
Zonal mid and upper level flow across the western and central US
will lead to the deepening of a lee surface low across the high
plains. Southerly winds across eastern KS will allow High
temperatures on Friday to warm into the mid 50s east to the upper
50s and lower 60s across the western counties. Saturday will Highs
will be warmer as 850mb temps warm to around 18 deg C with deep
mixing. Highs should reach the lower to mid 60s.
Saturday night and Sunday, An upper level trough across western
Canada will dig southeast across the northern plains. Strong
low-level CAA across the northern plains will cause a surface ridge
of high pressure to build southward out of central Canada. The
surface cold front will move southward into the northern counties of
the CWA by Noon on Sunday, then the front will move southward across
the entire CWA through Sunday afternoon. High temperatures in the
40s and 50s will occur in the late morning and early afternoon
hours, then temperatures will fall through the 40s into the 30s. The
ECMWF is a bit slower with the front and good compressional warming
ahead of the front could have highs in the lower 60s across east
central KS during the early afternoon hours before FROPA.
Monday through Tuesday, will be colder as the surface ridge of high
pressure builds southeast across eastern KS. An upper level trough over
the Midwest and MS river valley will deepen, keeping Kansas under
northwesterly flow aloft. Highs may not reach freezing across much
of the CWA on Monday and mid 30s to lower 40s on Tuesday. The ECMWF
has a colder solution and would once again keep highs in the lower
30s on Tuesday.
Tuesday night into Wednesday, The ECMWF and GFS solutions begin to
diverge as the GFS is much more progressive in bring a trough off
the CA coast east across the plains on Wednesday. The ECMWF is much
slower and keeps the upper trough across the far western US. If the
ECMWF were to verify our temperatures would moderate into the 40s on
Wednesday with dry conditions. If the GFS solution were to verify we
could see a wintry mix changing to snow as the H5 trough moves east
across the plains. The GFS solution looks too progressive and I`m
going more with the ECMWF solution.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period.
Surface high pressure ridge will move off to the east with winds
becoming southeast around 8 kts by 21Z. Expect winds to become
south southwest by 12Z Friday and increase to around 11 kts by 15Z