Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 181136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
636 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

A minor upper level trough was moving east across the central
portions of the state early this morning. The upper trough axis will
shift eastward across the CWA through 12Z. The better moisture and
instability was located southwest of the CWA across southwest and
south central KS. The thunderstorms near Russel and Great Bend, KS
at 230 AM will move to the southeast and miss the southwest
counties. A few showers or sprinkles will be possible through
sunrise as there may be enough ascent for a few showers across the
western counties of the CWA. I suppose as the H5 trough moves east
across the CWA there could be a few sprinkles or light showers
across the eastern counties as well. At this time I`ll keep POPs
after 12Z at 10 to 14 percent.

Today, the upper trough will move east-southeast into the mid and
lower MS river valley. Skies will clear from west to east during the
mid and late morning hours. Strong zonal flow will develop across
the central and northern plains. A deepening lee surface trough
across the high plains will cause winds to become southerly this
afternoon and will help high temperatures reach the mid 80s this
afternoon.

Tonight will be mostly clear with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

By Monday morning, a mid level ridge will be located over the
southern CONUS while a trough axis is located along the east coast.
By Monday evening, a weak front looks to move south through the area
but soundings show a deep, dry column indicating precipitation is
not expected.  Next chance for precipitation looks to be Wednesday
associated with a shortwave moving ahead of a deepening upper level
trough over the Pacific northwest.  This eastward progressing trough
will be over the Rockies by Friday afternoon bringing slight chances
for precipitation with a small shortwave moving ahead of the main
feature.  The better chances remain Friday night into Saturday, with
a cold front pushing through the area late afternoon Saturday.

Southerly flow through a majority of the period will keep
temperatures warmer than climatology, along with keeping dewpoints
in the upper 60s to low 70s most days.  This will lead to a hot and
humid work week with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s, and
lows in the upper 60s.  With a front in place on Saturday, highs
will range from north central Kansas in the mid 70s to low 80s in
east central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Gargan



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