Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 171124
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
624 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

A broad upper level ridge extended across the southern US with
second upper ridge axis across the central Rockies. An upper level
trough was located across the upper Great Lakes and extended
southwest into the mid MS river valley. The low amplitude upper
ridge across the central rockies will shift east across the plains
Today and Tonight.

This morning a weak upper trough was digging southeast across
northwest MO. A few showers may be possible early this morning
across Brown and Jefferson Counties but these showers should move
southeast of the CWA by 9Z.

Today and Tonight, The upper ridge will move east across the plains
today and tonight. Skies will be mostly clear and deeper mixing this
afternoon to 850mb should allow high temperatures to reach the lower
90s across much of the area. Surface dewpoints will hold in the mid
60s due to weak moisture advection. Lower 90 temperatures and
dewpoints in the mid 60s should lead to afternoon heat indicies in
the mid to upper 90s. Any thunderstorms that develop across the
higher terrain of eastern CO and western KS late this afternoon will
remain well west and northwest of the CWA through the night.
Overnight lows will only drop into the upper 60s to around 70
degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

On Thursday a lead shortwave will lift out over the northern plains
ahead of a strong northern stream wave. The lead wave will push a
cold front into the region from the northwest. Ahead of the front
low level moisture will be on the increase, but the lift seems
fairly limited. On Friday the models are hinting at an uncapped
environment in the afternoon mainly across east central KS. Although
there is not an obvious forcing mechanism fro storms in that area
during that time frame. Later Friday evening the front will move
into the forecast area along with showers and storms. In the warm
sector instability will be present although the deep layer shear
will range from 20 to 30 kts. Therefore widespread severe weather is
not expected, but localized damaging wind may be possible. An
expansive area of rainfall may accompany the front as it progresses
eastward Friday night. Some showers may linger Saturday morning
mainly across east central KS. It appears that most locations may
dry out on Saturday as the stronger wave digs over the northern
plains. Models show dry air behind this wave could prevent much of
the precip into Sunday. Temperatures will also cool behind these
systems with highs staying in the 70s both Saturday and Sunday.
Saturday and Sunday nights the lows will range from the mid 50s to
near 60. Into next week surface high pressure builds across the
region keeping it dry until mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

Expect VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan



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