Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 261130
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS SLOWLY ON THE DECREASE AS COMPLEX MOVES TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST.  WV IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES STATES.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ATMOSPHERE IS INITIALLY WEAKLY CAPPED AND
BECOMES FREELY CONVECTIVE TOWARD THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
STARTING TO CAP OFF TO CONVECTION LATER IN THE DAY. WITH SHORTWAVE
FEATURES GRAZING THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO DAYTIME HEATING...WILL
CARRY ISOLD TO SCT POP CHANCES AND DECREASE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY.  CHANCES SHOULD BE GONE BY EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO HOLD IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS START OUT BREEZY IN THE DAY AND DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GO AS STORM CHANCES MOVE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

ON SUNDAY A DECENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION, WHICH WILL DRAG A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN KS. THE GFS IS
FORECASTING MUCAPE AROUND 15OO J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS THEREFORE COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK
KEEPING US IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA EACH GIVING US A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

KEPT TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MORNING AT THE
TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME BREEZY FOR A SHORT WHILE TODAY FROM THE
NORTH BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON. THINK CIGS AND
VISBY WILL STAY GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...67


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