Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 192257
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
557 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

Tonight through Wednesday...

An Excessive Heat Warning continues through Saturday. High
temperatures this afternoon are ranging from the middle to upper
90s. These hot temperatures coupled with dewpoints in the low to
middle 70s are producing heat indices near 105 degrees. A complex of
showers and thunderstorms are located across Southern Iowa and
Northern Missouri. These will remain well east of forecast area.
Otherwise upper level ridging continues across the area into
Wednesday. Overnight lows will only "cool" into the middle 70s.
Any thunderstorm chances will stay north of KS-NE border overnight
as weak 500MB waves ride up and over the ridge, along a stall
surface boundary. Temperatures will once again warm into the middle
90s to perhaps 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon. With mid 70
dewpoints remaining in place across much of the area, heat indices
will soar to between 105 and 110 degrees during the afternoon and
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

The mid range forecast for Thursday and Friday will continue to be
hot and dry with a broad upper high in place centered over the
Southern Plains.  This will continue to advect southwest flow into
the Central Plains pushing H85 temps to the 27C range.  The heat
will likely continue into Saturday, which will be yet another day
with heat index values reaching into the 105F range.  Therefore,
have extended the excessive heat warning into Saturday.  Into the
rest of the weekend, precip chances do increase as an upper level
low advects through the Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley.
Main belt of Westerlies remains near the CONUS/Canadian border, but
expect the broad ridge will begin to break down with minor
shortwaves pulling out of the Rockies into the Central Plains
providing at least weak DPVA to into portions of the outlook area.
With best forcing just to the north of the Kansas/Nebraska border,
but with a weak cold front entering the area and transitioning into
a stationary boundary, expect that slight chances for showers and
perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms kick off over portions of the
area Sunday through Tuesday time frame.  Not expecting severe storms
at this time since shear profiles seem weak and disorganized with
conditional mid level lapse rates.  The added benefit of any precip
at this point in the extended will likely be at least some cooling
of temperatures which will bring heat index values into the mid to
upper 90s which will seem a bit better than mid 100s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

Upper ridging should allow VFR conditions to prevail. There is
some marginal risk for LLWS during the pre dawn hours. Forecast
soundings are not very strong with the inversion so there is some
indication the boundary layer may remained just mixed enough.
Therefore will monitor conditions without adding LLWS to the
forecast for now.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Wolters


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