000
FXUS63 KTOP 121719
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1219 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
CONUS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. A
MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL NE WILL DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KS
TODAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS MINOR H5 TROUGH TO
PRODUCE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. I CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES
TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. FCST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM...ECMWF AND WRF SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
MIXING OUT WITH SLIGHT WAA AT THE 750MB LEVEL...BUT THERE LOOKS TO
BE NO CI FOR ANY HIGH BASED OR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE TOP CWA.

THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES. IF SKIES CLEAR IN THE WESTERN CWA...HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AS
THE SFC RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL START TO FLATTEN AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE LLVL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME AND REMAIN WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY.
BETWEEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DRYING...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR RAPID WARMING INTO TUESDAY. AS A RESULT KEPT HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE UPPER UPPER 70S FAR EAST TO LOW TO MID 80S
ELSEWHERE...HOWEVER INCREASED HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER
90S ALL AREAS.

AS THE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA ADVANCES NORTHEAST INTO
THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND A FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
ALSO LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. READINGS NEAR 80 AND
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE INTO
FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN WAVE EXITS BY LATE THURSDAY AND ANOTHER WAVE
IN MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ADVANCES INTO THE AREA.

A TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY SATURDAY MAY ALLOW
FOR THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTH WITH WARMER
READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. IT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN/HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CONVECTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT
AS SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFT SOUTHEAST. THUNDER SHOWERS OBSERVED ON
RADAR WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM TERMINALS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...BOWEN