Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 180802
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
302 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

Early this morning, surface high pressure was centered over the
region, resulting in light or calm winds across the area. With the
exception of a few scattered low/mid clouds, skies were
predominantly clear across the forecast area.  With these conditions
in place, radiational cooling resulted in dewpoint depressions of 3F
degrees or less, which has supported the development of some patchy
fog.  This early morning patchy fog was primarily noted in low-lying
areas, but may become a bit more expansive closer to sunrise,
especially across east central and northeast Kansas where
temperatures were a few degrees cooler. These foggy conditions
should improve by mid morning as temperatures quickly rise this
morning. Short-range model soundings show the potential for some
low/mid-level clouds to develop during the afternoon hours. Some
model soundings suggest these clouds should be fairly shallow,
allowing for afternoon high temperatures to reach into the middle to
upper 60s.  However, a few models show this cloud cover possibly
being a bit thicker, which may limit the amount of warming that can
occur this afternoon and thus would likely result in high
temperatures being a few degrees cooler than forecast. These low/mid
clouds should scatter out some overnight. With surface high pressure
starting to shift east of the area overnight, the combination of
scattered clouds with light southeasterly winds will result in
another cooler night with lows in the mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

An upper level trough will move out of the Rockies and into the
Plains on Thursday. Retreating surface high will initiate southerly
flow into the central and eastern Kansas. Lift increases in the
afternoon hours as the upper trough moves into central Kansas in the
afternoon, that combined with increasing moisture will set the stage
for some light showers to develop in the afternoon. The upper trough
will move over eastern Kansas Thursday night with the trough axis
moving off into Missouri by the afternoon hours. With weak lapse
rates expect showers primarily. An upper level ridge builds in the
area Saturday with dry weather expected along with warming
temperatures. An upper level trough will be in place across the
western U.S. Sunday. A wave is forecast to eject out of the base of
the trough and clip western Kansas. Highs pressure ridge extending
from the Great Lakes southwest into eastern Kansas on Sunday will
focus the best moisture return into the High Plains of western
Kansas. Storms moving off of the dryline may maintain and move into
central Kansas late in the day. Veering low level jet may maintain a
cluster of storms which may affect north central and northeast
Kansas. Moisture and instability axis will be focused across central
and eastern Kansas ahead of a dryline in western Kansas. A frontal
boundary will move southeast into western parts of central Kansas by
Tuesday morning as an upper level trough tracks northeast out of the
Rockies and across the Northern Plains Monday night. With southwest
flow across the Plains and ejecting waves out of the western trough
expect on and off again chances for showers and thunderstorms
through Tuesday. Shear, instability and moisture will be favorable
ahead of the dryline and frontal boundary for strong to severe
storms across eastern Kansas Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will
gradually warm each day with highs in the 70s for the weekend and in
the lower 80s for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

Light winds and a moist ground may cause some ground fog to
develop at the terminals through the early morning hours. High
clouds were moving east-northeast but were dissipating as they
moved into central KS, therefore skies may stay mostly clear as
lows drop into the mid 40s and with dewpoints remaining in the mid
40s patchy dense fog may form, with the best chance at the TOP
terminal. Once the fog mixes out between 13-14Z WED conditions
will be VFR.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Gargan



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