Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 170452
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1152 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

Southerly winds and higher dewpoints have returned across the area
today, save the far northwestern counties which have remained
slightly cooler from overnight outflow from the north and a
shortwave trof moving into NC Kansas at this time.  So far this wave
has only generated a leading cloud edge and some lower congestus to
the north. One of the HRRR solutions generates some scattered
showers/storms this afternoon north of I70 and mainly in the
northeast.  Soundings suggest cap will hold and have kept out of the
afternoon forecast.  Another piece of energy moving across southern
Nebraska later tonight and into early hours has some scant QPF in
larger scale models. Have carried just a slight chance for thunder
north of I70 but think even this might be generous.  Overnight lows
slightly warmer than previous nights in the middle 60s, with highs
on Tuesday also a few degrees warmer in the upper 80s to lower
90s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

Remnant moisture from southwesterly flow aloft over the southern
CONUS may lift towards southern Kansas on Thursday afternoon. Best
bet for scattered showers and thunderstorms are further south
towards Oklahoma, but could not rule out a stray shower impacting
east central areas in the afternoon. Otherwise, main change on
Thursday afternoon was to increase cloud cover northward with this
upper perturbation moving through the region. However, decent
southerly advection at h85 from the south should offset the cloud
cover some with readings generally around 90 degrees. Also backed
off on precip chances for Friday afternoon, as the frontal boundary
is trending slower, looking to not impact northeast KS until late
Friday evening into Saturday. The main upper trough by the afternoon
is still far to our northwest with pieces of energy breaking off
from the trough axis, making its way into western KS. Could see some
increasing cloud cover from the west with clouds lingering over east
central KS so highs on Friday could vary from the mid 80s to low 90s
depending on the scenario.

Main focus for the period is the decent chance for accumulating
rainfall late Friday evening as the first wave swings east over the
plains region. Sided a bit closer in the precip chances with the GFS
in terms of the track of the upper system as the ECMWF is showing a
slower progression with the system with each run, lingering
convection into Saturday afternoon. Regardless, periods of heavy
rainfall will be possible, especially north of Interstate 70. Severe
potential is marginal this far out with effective shear being mostly
post frontal accompanying the LLJ overnight. Could see a few
stronger storms producing strong winds, otherwise the widespread
risk is low. The second lobe of energy rounds the base of the trough
Saturday night with most of the precip at this time staying over
western KS. High pressure begins to build in Sunday and Monday while
temps and dewpoints are below normal values, creating fall like
conditions through Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s and lower
80s. Overnight lows may fall into the bottoming out in the middle 50s
by Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2016

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period
with a slight wind shift from southeast to south by Wednesday
morning.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Hennecke



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