Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 250535
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1135 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

The freezing line has been slow to move northwest this afternoon
with parts of north central Kansas seeing wintery precipitation
through the afternoon. As this main mid-level trough continues to
move north and east of Kansas, all precipitation should be
northeast of the area by early evening leaving dry conditions
through mid-week. Skies clear from west to east this evening
aiding in diurnal cooling. Lows tonight drop into the low to mid
20s. As for tomorrow, another mid-level wave passes over the
central Plains, but expect only some clouds to form from with this.
With weak surface high pressure over the area, winds will be
light, but shifting from the south by tomorrow afternoon. High
temperatures reach into the upper 40s and low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

The dry conditions continue through Tuesday morning with mid-level
southwest flow persisting over the central US.  A strengthening mid-
level low on the lee side of the Rockies creates a strong pressure
gradient over central Kansas Monday which will lead to some gusty
winds.  These, combined with some some low RH values in the 20s
Monday afternoon, may lead to very high fire danger for parts of
central Kansas.

By Tuesday night, a closed mid-level low will be located over the
Central great Basin with an inverted trough axis extending across
central Kansas into Nebraska.  Chances for precipitation begin
Tuesday, although the GFS is much more robust on this potential than
the ECMWF.  The better chances for precipitation look to be late
Wednesday afternoon into the evening as aforementioned trough
traverses the central US.  Included the mention of some
thunderstorms Wednesday as the surface low passes northeast Kansas.
The ECMWF is a bit slower to move things out of the area Thursday
leading to some chances for snow Wednesday night into Thursday
morning on the back side of this low as temperatures fall.

From here, mid-level ridging builds over the CONUS allowing for
more dry weather at the end of the week.  Temperatures continue to
be mild, even after the frontal passage mid-week with highs in the
50s both Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

VFR conditions forecast to prevail through the 06Z TAF period.
Early on, there may be some VIS drops briefly across the terminals
as nocturnal cooling takes place under clear skies. Drier air is
also working in, so as winds calm enough there will be a tendency
to offset cooling with some dry air filtering into the region.
Winds generally below 10 kts through the period with backing winds
to the south by the end of the period but still remain light.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Drake



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