Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 301936
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
236 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Surface high pressure continues to dominate the region with light
winds from the north to east across the local forecast area and
widespread sunshine. One feature of interest over the next 24 hours
is a retrogressing upper trough currently centered over the lower
Ohio valley. There is a lot of moisture wrapping fully around this
upper low and resulting in widespread low to mid level cloud cover
as far west as central MO this afternoon.  This cloud shield will
spread west overnight and is likely to extend into northeast KS by
morning.  Along the western edge of the clouds, virtually all model
guidance suggests that areas of fog will develop with the best
chance seemingly focused within 40 miles east and west of an arcing
Marysville to Wamego to Garnett line. There is potential for this
fog to become dense in spots, but at this point am unsure if dense
fog will be widespread enough to warrant an advisory and the evening
shift will want to continue to monitor this potential. Fog/clouds
will also keep morning temperatures slightly warmer in the east but
will also make things slower to warm through the morning and have
thus reduced the high temperatures a bit in the eastern half of the
forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Expansive upper low begins to lift and fill during the evening
hours, while a very weak perturbation translates over central and
southern portions of Kansas overnight. Forecast soundings for the
north central areas of the CWA remain very dry aloft with not enough
lift to mention precip based on previous model trends. Winds become
southerly from Sunday onward as dry conditions ensue and sfc
troughing develops over the western high plains. Sunny skies and
better mixing of warm air off the sfc will increase temps to near 80
degrees through Tuesday.

The next negatively tilted trough enters western KS by Tuesday with
a decent dry line setting up from north to south Tuesday afternoon.
Many variables are still differing on the track of this system,
leading to much uncertainty in the potential for severe weather
Tuesday afternoon. Any morning convection will certainly hinder the
instability for north central KS by late afternoon, however the bulk
shear up to 6 km in excess of 50 kts by 00Z Wednesday could develop
a few stronger storms in the evening. Similar scenario may occur
again on Wednesday afternoon except across far eastern Kansas. Will
need to watch the evolution of this wave over the next few days on
severity, but overall a decent chance for rainfall during this
period. A cooler and dry airmass fills in for Thursday and Friday as
highs fall back to the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

After a VFR afternoon and evening, there is a good chance for fog
to develop at TAF sites. The best chance is after 09Z but could
see some shallow fog even before that especially at MHK/TOP. There
is some potential for dense fog but will go with IFR for now.
Expect it to persist through 14Z with some potential to go a bit
longer before thinning out. There is also a chance that an area of
low stratus could build over TOP/FOE after 10Z which would reduce
fog but likely maintain IFR conditions.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Barjenbruch


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