Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 310035
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
735 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FA AT 18Z WHILE
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAD REACHED NEAR GRB. CLOUDS WERE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE FA...EXCEPT NEAR INL WHERE DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE FROM BFW TO TWM AND DYT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST
A MEAN RH OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER.
MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT MAY NOT LAST
LONG. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
00Z MONDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THIS TROF AND
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JETS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LEADING EDGE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FA BY
MID MORNING...AND COVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY 18Z. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BUT
BEGINNING TO REACH THE CDD TO BRD AREA BY 18Z. THE INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW
CENTER PROGGED TO REACH NW MN BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ONE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO
PERIODS OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE SITUATION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NW MINNESOTA...OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO GET AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY BY THIS
POINT...WITH MOST OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY WELL
TO EAST THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
PROMOTE THE DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
ONE OR MORE PASSING TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GEM AND NAM ARE THE
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN FOR THE FIRST TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PCPN...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RAIN WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALSO WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONDITIONS ARE MUCH IMPROVED FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LARGELY VFR
AND MVFR CIGS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING...BUT WE CONTINUE TO RUN THE RISK THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN AGAIN IMPROVE ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN
THE WESTERN CWA...AND LARGELY AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  74  60  72 /  20  40  80  30
INL  56  70  57  70 /  10  70  80  20
BRD  59  79  60  73 /  20  50  70  20
HYR  53  76  64  75 /  10  20  80  50
ASX  53  78  63  73 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP





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