Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDLH 050520
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1220 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER NE MN THIS EVENING AND NW WI
OVERNIGHT. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO NE MN LATE TONIGHT. SOME
ISOLD SPRINKLES WILL BE FOUND FROM CRANE LAKE TO THE TWIN PORTS
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE AND LINGERING INTO THE MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BY SUNRISE AND LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MILKY LOOKING SKY THURSDAY AND
MAY ALSO LIMIT THE SPRINKLES.

THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SE THURSDAY AND ALLOWS FORM A WARMER
AND DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EVEN
THOUGH THERE IS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA...NOT
EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS. ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL WILL
ENTER THE NWRN PART OF MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE AND ENTER NRN WI EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE A LITTLE PUNCH TO IT...WITH AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...MAY SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT...ESPECIALLY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MN...THEN ONGOING
INTO WI. WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW...DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S. 0-3 KN MUCAPE IS FORECAST FROM 1200-2400 J/KG. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 25 TO 40 KTS.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FROM
FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH 8H TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT
FALLING TO ABOUT 5C ON SATURDAY...THEN EVEN COLDER ON SUNDAY WITH
0 TO -1C IN NORTHERN AREAS OF MN AND WI.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY THE NORTHLAND WILL BE EARLY
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE QUICKLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
KBRD. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS THE AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY...BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE INDEED POSSIBLE. THE WEAK SYSTEM WILL PULL OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...LEAVING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  73  51  81 /  10  20   0  20
INL  34  82  52  80 /  20  20   0  30
BRD  39  81  55  85 /  10  10   0  20
HYR  28  71  50  82 /  10  20   0  10
ASX  30  70  48  80 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...DAP/GROCHOCINSKI


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.