Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 190527
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1127 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH AN AREA OF WAA ALSO OCCURRING. REGIONAL
RADAR/OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SNOW WAS FALLING FROM THE RID RIVER
VALLEY/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AREA ON NORTH AND WEST. WE INCREASED
POPS TONIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...BUT ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
TOTAL SNOWFALL STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH UP TO 2 INCHES IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOST OF THE AREA.

TODAY/TONIGHT...DESPITE SOME CLEARING THIS MORNING /ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE/ CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...REACHING THE
TWIN HARBORS BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
MUCH...PERHAPS 1 TO 2 INCHES AT MOST. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
OUT OF THE SOUTH...SO BLOWING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.
LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

WEDNESDAY...OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST IS PROBABLY A BIT TOO PESSIMISTIC
REGARDING HOW LONG SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON...BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE UP
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOME CLEARING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN CENTRAL MN DURING THE DAY. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES AS NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW AT
15 TO 20 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF MN...WITH WEAKER WINDS OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS INLAND AND IN THE LOW 20S ALONG THE COAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN RESIDING OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL GIVE ONE LAST GASP OF SNOW WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A INTENSE UPPER LEVEL VORT
MAX...BUT BEST ADVECTION AREA WILL BE FAR NORTHERN WI AND THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN WHERE THE CHANCE OF  SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS BLOWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF COULD
HELP CREATE MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH 8H
TEMPS FORECAST AROUND -17C THE DELTA T WILL BE COLD ENOUGH. WINDS
ARE LOOKING TO BE FROM ABOUT 300 DEGREES...MIGHT NOT BE NORTHERLY
ENOUGH TO CAUSE ALOT OF LAKE EFFECT IN A BROAD AREA...MIGHT BE MOST
CONFINED TO FAR FAR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD HURLEY.

A BIG CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND..THE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
EAST AND THIS WILL HELP THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...OR
ZONAL TO USHER IN A MILDER AIRMASS. IN THE MEANTIME TO THE WEST A
S/WV TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOW OF THE ROCKIES...CREATING A
REGIME OF WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE NORTHLAND.  IT WILL BE WARMING
FROM -18 TO 20C AT 8H THURSDAY MORNING TO -15C IN THE ARROWHEAD TO
-6 IN THE  BRAINERD AREAS. THE THE WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
INTO THE NORTHLAND ON A STRONG 40 KT LOLVL JET...AND BY FRIDAY
EVENING 8H TEMPS ARE FORECAST ABOVE ZERO OVER MUCH OF NERN MN.
THIS ADVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL TROF COULD CREATE ENOUGH LIFT TO
CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SOME FREEZING RAIN...AT THIS TIME PTYPE IS
DIFFICULT WITH ALL THE WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS WEATHER REGIME WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME EXPECT A SFC LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS
IOWA AND SRN WI WITH THE UPPER DIGGING INTO MN AND THROUGH WI. THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SNOW NORTH OF
ITS TRACK...SO WE WILL BE KEEPING TABS ON IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

SNOW COVERED MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN
LATE THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACT
THE AREA. VSBYS WILL DROP TO IFR WITH CEILINGS MAINLY MVFR. THE
SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR MOST AREAS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LINGER ON AND OFF THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY BE LOW VFR/MVFR.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WILL BE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  10  19   4  15 /  70  30  20   0
INL  11  18   0  13 /  70  40  30  10
BRD  12  17   1  16 /  90  10   0   0
HYR  10  19   2  16 /  70  50  20   0
ASX  10  21   9  18 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...MELDE





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