Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 301732 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE NO LONGER INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA AND HAVE REMOVED. SOME HOLES ARE BEGINNING TO OPEN IN THE
CLOUD COVER...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AND QUICKLY REFILL. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 77 IN WI FA THROUGH THE
MORNING. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR/WISCONSIN...WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN WISCONSIN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER ONTARIO WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO SINK INTO THE
NRN ZONES/BORDERLAND TODAY. HOWEVER...ELSEWHERE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TSTM THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TRACKS
ACROSS CEN MN WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CAPE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRONG WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE/COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. 8H
TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM AT LEAST 8 DEGREES FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING.  MAJOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON STRONG 8H JET OF 40 KTS
WILL AID IN SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT A ROUND OF SVR TSTMS AS DESCRIBED BY SPC SWODY2. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MUCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 2500 TO OVER 3000
J/KG...LI`S WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...TT`S OVER 50.  ALL THE
PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE...AND ADDED LIFT PROVIDED BY
FRONT...UPPER VORT...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM JET LET ROUNDING THE
UPPER TROF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING...A FIRST ROUND COULD
BE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING WHEN AN INITIAL WAVE HELPS STORMS
ERUPT IN WRN MN AND SOME OF THESE COULD REACH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA THEN CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY MONDAY MORNING THE
FRONT SHOULD BE INTO NWRN WI...AND EXIT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY
FLOW. THIS MEANS A SERIES OF S/WVS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BRING SERIES OF UPPER TROFS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD OVC SKIES AND IFR/MVFR
CIGS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A TREND TOWARDS MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS.
THE 5 TO 10 KNOT NNE TO ENE FLOW WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT AND
EASTERLY BY THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A TRANSITION TO AT LEAST IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...IF NOT LIFR...AS
MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS DEVELOP. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY
TERMINAL TO SEE FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING AS SE WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST. THE KINL AND KBRD WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  54  70  61 /  20  10  40  80
INL  70  52  73  57 /  10  10  70  70
BRD  70  59  78  60 /  70  10  70  80
HYR  70  53  79  64 /  40  10  20  80
ASX  66  52  78  63 /  20  10  20  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





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