Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 291439 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
939 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A FOCUS ON WIND
SPEEDS...CLOUD COVER...AND PCPN CHANCES. ADJUSTED THE WIND SPEEDS
BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. LEANED ON THE
SREF WINDS BECAUSE OF IT BEING AMONG THE STRONGEST OF THE
MODELS...SINCE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE WINDS WAS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING TO INDICATE A MORE GRADUAL...RATHER
THAN RAPID...WEAKENING OF WIND SPEEDS INTO THIS EVENING. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS...WHICH IS MORE EXTENSIVELY CLOUDY THAN WHAT MOST
OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. LEANED ON THE CLOUDIER RAP13 IN MY
BLEND. PCPN CHANCES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO INDICATE HIGHER CHANCES
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MINNESOTA BORDERLAND AND ARROWHEAD THROUGH
TONIGHT. LEANED ON THE SREF FOR PCPN CHANCES IN MY BLEND. MIGHT
NEED TO ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING HINTING AT SOME SHOWERS...INCLUDING THE SREF AND NCEP
WRF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 990 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA HAS
BEEN...AND WILL CONTINUE...TO CAUSE STRONG SURFACE WINDS TODAY.
WITH SUCH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH
AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN THE FROM THE WEST...EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING OVER 40 MPH IN
BRAINERD. THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KDLH RADAR SHOWS MEASURED 40
KTS AT 3000 FT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-50 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE MIXING LAYER- SO WE WILL SEE WINDS RAMP UP THIS
MORNING AS THE WINDS MIX DOWN. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER IN
WISCONSIN THE GRADIENT IS A BIT LOOSER...SO WINDS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG. THE NEARLY STACKED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH ANOTHER
SECTION COMING THROUGH TODAY AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHERE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT..EXPECT THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MUCH CALMER ON THURSDAY WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CUT OFF LOW WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER HUDSON
BAY THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF UNSTABLE
CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST FLOW WITH FALLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STEEP
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING DAYS WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY NW
WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW SWINGS SEVERAL FAST
MOVING SMALL WAVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION....RESULTING IN PERIODIC SMALL POPS AND INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AND THE TIMING OF THESE
WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR AT KINL AND KHIB THROUGH 18Z...TO
VFR ELSEWHERE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE TODAY...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  59  80  60 /  10   0  10  10
INL  73  56  77  54 /  50  50  10  30
BRD  80  60  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  76  58  80  57 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  79  60  81  60 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING



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