Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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452
FXUS63 KDLH 212025
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
325 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Main concern for short term will be the dry conditions sunday

Current surface obs indicate mainly mostly sunny skies except for
mostly cloudy skies at the tip of the arrowhead. radar indicates
showers across that region. These showers will end by sunset as
the heating decreases.

The area of high pressure will continue to move east of the region
tonight and sunday. A stronger southerly flow will develop sunday
morning on the backside of the high. This will combine with low
relative humidity values of 17-25 percent to cause another day of
critical fire weather conditions across the same areas on sunday in
northest minnesota as today. Other areas will see near-critical
fire weather conditions on sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Upper level ridging will cover northwest Wisconsin Sunday night
while an upper trof moves into the Northern Plains. Meanwhile, a
frontal boundary will occur in the vicinity of the upper trof.
Models have slowed the onset of the rain in the forecast area to
after 06Z/1 AM Monday. Removed the mention of rain from Sunday
evening and lowered the pops a bit overnight to account for this
slower solution. On Monday, the frontal boundary moves into the
forecast area as the upper trof weakens a bit. Showers and
thunderstorms will form along and ahead of this front and move in a
northeast direction. Adjusted pops on Monday to reflect the slow
movement of the front/upper trof and have highest pops west, lower
pops east. The front continues slowly eastward Monday night and is
accompanied by another upper shortwave in the southwest flow aloft.
Showers and storms will continue and end gradually from west to east
overnight. Tuesday through Thursday finds the area under the
influence of a closed upper low that meanders from eastern
Saskatchewan to northwest Ontario. This keeps the region in an
unstable atmosphere as moisture keeps pumping into the region from
the south. As pieces of shortwave energy pass through the area,
showers and storms will sporadically develop and affect the forecast
area. There will be some breaks from the rain, but will be difficult
to time and have pops throughout. By Friday, the Ontario low
dissolves as another closed low organizes over Nebraska. This will
pump Gulf of Mexico moisture into the region for more showers and
storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

VFR through the forecast. Scattered to broken cumulus clouds at 7
to 10 thousand feet will dissipate by 01Z/8 pm leaving a clear sky.
Look for gusty south winds to develop by mid to late morning
Sunday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  49  76  55 /   0   0   0  20
INL  80  48  80  60 /   0   0   0  40
BRD  78  52  79  60 /   0   0   0  40
HYR  78  46  81  57 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  77  46  79  54 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ010>012-018-
     019-026-035-037.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stewart
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF



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