Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 312002
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SFC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH NW MN AND AT 19Z WAS
LOCATED NEAR ROSEAU SWWD TO WHAPETON ND. ONLY SOME CU/STRATUS WAS
FOUND NEAR THE FRONT WITH NO RAIN. THE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD A BIT
FURTHER EWD TONIGHT. THE STRATUS IN NW WI PERSISTS...BUT STILL SHOWS
SOME EROSION. SOME STRATUS/FOG IS HANGING ONTO THE NORTH SHORE FROM
NEAR LUTSEN TO ABOUT HOVLAND...BUT HAS ALSO SHOWN SOME EROSION.

EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...NO MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT OR TUESDAY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRYER BOUNDARY LAYER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL WASH OUT THIS EVENING AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE EWD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH A LACK OF FORCING...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS.

ON TUESDAY...MODELS OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NW WI. GFS/NAM12 AND ARW ARE DRY.
ECMWF/GEM/NMM BRING IN SOME STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE NMM
HOLDING OFF UNTIL 21Z. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC COVERING THE
AREA...AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT...DIFFICULT TO
TIME ANY STORMS. DID LEAN TOWARD THE NMM/ARW/NAM12 AND PUSHED BACK
THE MENTION OF STORMS UNTIL 21Z WITH A REALIGNMENT OF POPS. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY AND TWEAKED AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN US WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE
MAIN AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND BE A FORESHADOWING OF A
STRONGER UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
THURSDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THIS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER
CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT RIDE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
AND INTERACT WITH THE HOT/HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTION WILL BE HIT AND MISS THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT IF
THERE IS AN AREA THAT DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE
A BIT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...AND ALSO BE VERY SLOW-MOVING.
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST REALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND EJECTS
A SERIES OF MORE POTENT WAVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
WEEKEND. COULD SEE FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. WILL
START TO SEE THE BEGINNING OF A COOL DOWN PERIOD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS
15 TO 25 KTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND MAINLY ACT TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...BUT COULD ALSO
INTERACT WITH A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS. PRECIP/STORM PROBABILITIES ARE LOW...BUT NOT LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE TAF WITH A VCTS/SH. FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ALLOWS PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TUE MORNING.
COULD SEE IFR/MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AT TIMES...BUT NOTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  82  64  82 /  10  10  10  10
INL  57  81  54  87 /  10  10  20  20
BRD  64  84  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
HYR  67  83  64  84 /  10  20  10  20
ASX  68  82  62  84 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER



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