Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 201746
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1246 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2016

The Northland is in the wake of a strong cold front that passed
through yesterday afternoon through early this morning, and will
now find itself in cool and dry west-northwest flow today. The
flow will become quite gusty today. The RAP, GFS, and NAM
soundings indicate widespread 25 to 35 knots within the late
morning and afternoon mixing layer. Increased the sustained, and
even more so the wind gusts, for today`s forecast to indicate
widespread gusts of 25 to 35 mph. The strongest flow should be
over far northern Minnesota, especially the higher terrain of the
Minnesota Arrowhead, where stray gusts could reach 40 mph. Earlier
forecasts had low pcpn chances across the northern forecast area,
mostly the Arrowhead, but pulled those because of difficulty
finding any model support to keep the pcpn in the forecast. While
it is possible there could be isolated showers, the chances looked
too low to keep it in the forecast. High temperatures should range
from the low 70s across northeast Minnesota to the middle 70s
across northwest Wisconsin. The warmest weather may occur along
Twin Ports shoreline in Duluth because of downslope warming from
the west-northwest flow, so bumped up the Park Point and Superior
forecast to about 78 degrees.

Light westerly flow will develop tonight when the boundary layer
decouples amidst the clear skies. There should still be about 5
mph wind speeds, so refrained from leaning on the coldest guidance
despite the clear skies and dry humidity. Lows should range from
the upper 40s across the north to the lower 50s across the south.

Surface high pressure in the Northern Plains will begin to
approach the Northland from the west Tuesday, but the Northland
will see one more day of breezy northwest flow. There should be
widespread gusts of 15 to 20 mph. There will likely be some
scattered cumulus in the afternoon across the northern and
southeastern forecast area. Leaned on the 4 km NAM for cloud cover
because of its strength in depicting cumulus cloud cover in these
types of weather patterns. Temperatures should be a bit warmer
than Monday with highs in the middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2016

Seasonable conditions expected through the work week with a
chance for showers and storms mid-week and again through the
weekend.

On the synoptic scale an active upper level jet across the
northern tier of the country will result in an active period of
weather. On Wednesday a mid-level ridge will build across the
upper Midwest ahead of a shortwave trough traversing southern
Canada. With northwest flow across the Northland preceding this
shortwave trough arrival, there will be little time to advect warm
and moist air ahead of it, limiting the potential for strong
thunderstorms. While a few storms will be possible as the fairly
impressive vort max swings across the upper Mississippi Wednesday
afternoon/evening, model soundings depict just a bit of low/mid
level instability (i.e. less than 500 j/kg) so think the
thunderstorm coverage will be limited to the southern row of
counties in the CWA.

Thursday into Friday a broad mid-level longwave ridge develops
across the central part of the country with an associated broad
area of high pressure building east across the country. By Friday
morning this high pressure will be over the upper Great Lakes,
leading to warm and moist southerly flow to advect up the Great
Plains into the region. This will allow for highs to reach the low
80s and dew points to climb into the low 60s Friday...then into
the mid to upper 60s Saturday. This will all be ahead of another
shortwave trough moving across the northern tier of the country -
an upper low centered over northeast Montana Saturday afternoon
with the associated surface low over northwest Minnesota. Late
Friday into Saturday showers and thunderstorms may develop along
the associated warm frontal boundary as it lifts north, with
enough instability and deep layer shear to support strong to
severe thunderstorms. Model solutions diverge towards the weekend
with regards to the placement of the low as it deepens, with
another chance for showers and storms as the associated cold front
moves through sometime Sunday or Monday. Highs through the weekend
in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2016

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, with afternoon
cumulus expected with bases above 6kft both 18z-00z today, and
likely developing again after 16z tomorrow. Wind the main concern
with west-northwest winds 280-310 sustained around 15kts with
gusts in the 25-30knot range until approximately 00z this evening.
Terrain effects at KHYR are producing lower sustained speeds...but
gusts up to 20kts possible this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  51  74  51 /   0   0   0   0
INL  71  48  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  76  54  78  54 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  78  50  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  74  52  74  50 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LE



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