Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 251728
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1228 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERY QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING CLEARING OUT FROM NE TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR
MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ENSHROUDED IN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A COOL NE WIND
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND KEEP MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND IN THESE COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
AROUND AND ADJACENT TO THE LAKE...AND INTO THE LOWER 50S INLAND. A
SFC HIGH WILL BUILD S/SWWD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO INTO NE MN AS AN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER NW MN TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TWO FEATURES AND A DRYING AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE NE WINDS OFF THE
LAKE AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES. WINDS AROUND THE LAKE THIS
MORNING ARE BLOWING 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TODAY AS THE PRES
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WRN LS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY EXIST OVER THE WATER AND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE.
THE CLEARING SKIES LATER TODAY AND LIGHTER WINDS INLAND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE LAKE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO THE LAKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALLOWING MUCH OF THE REGION TO WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AROUND THE
VERY IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL ONLY SEE THE 30S
AND 40S AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO NW MN BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER AND MORE ROBUST WITH THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE NAM HAS
THE FRONT ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
TUESDAY. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN POPS OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS WASHES OUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROF CRUISES BY WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A
DEEPER/STRONGER UPPER TROF WHICH SLOWS DOWN AS IT REACHES THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH THE
TROF BUT HAS NO PCPN. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PRIOR RUNS
AND GENERATES PCPN OVER THE REGION. AS A COMPROMISE...WILL HAVE LOW
POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF
DEPARTS. NEXT UPPER TROF CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD AS IT DROPS FROM
ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE A SMALL POP OVER THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES AS A RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THIS TROF AS IT DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY AND
COVERS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND HAVE A BLEND FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY EAST WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AFFECTING KDLH...GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BECOMING NEAR-CALM
AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  29  49  31 /  10   0   0   0
INL  53  28  58  31 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  52  28  59  33 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  54  27  55  29 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  47  29  46  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ141>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...JJM






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