Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 260558 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1258 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

A SWITCH OVER TO MORE SNOW WAS OCCURRING EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS SUGGESTED BY THE RAP. OVERALL...THE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS BEEN DECREASING THOUGH...AND THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

WE DID ADD SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION AS TEMPERATURES HERE AT THE OFFICE HAVE DROPPED TO 31 AND
THE PRECIP TYPE WAS STILL RAIN/DRIZZLE.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE...BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

AT 4 PM...RAIN CONTINUED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...WITH SEVERAL
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION. THE PCPN TODAY
HAS BEEN MUCH LIGHTER...WITH THE HIGHEST 12 HOUR AMOUNTS GENERALLY
UNDER AN INCH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
WISCONSIN CWA. POWERFUL EAST WINDS CONTINUED ON LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING IN THE 40 PLUS KNOT RANGE
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. UMD BUOY 45028 REPORTED 14.8 FOOT
WAVES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE GRADUAL TRANSITION
FROM THE VERY WET LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO A DRY HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE DURING THE EVENING...WITH
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE
EVEN FURTHER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LINGERING SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES ON TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NOTHING MUCH AFTER THAT. THE
ARROWHEAD HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY...WITH ONLY PARTIAL SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

00Z WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH A 500MB LOW IN COLORADO. AT THE SFC... A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION... WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED IN KANSAS. THE
ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL KEEP THE SFC LOW DISPLACED SE FROM THE 500MB
LOW... AND THIS TREND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL
JET SHIFTS THE CYCLONE NE INTO NORTH DAKOTA/IOWA. THE SOUTHERN
DISPLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW... ALONG WITH PERSISTING CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ACT TO LIMIT THE RAIN SHIELD`S EXTENT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. THE NAM BRINGS THE SHOWER EXTENT FARTHEST NORTH OF ALL
THE LARGE SCALE MODELS WITH THE LINE GENERALLY STAYING SOUTH OF THE
IRON RANGE. OPTED TO LIMIT POPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH ALIGNING WITH
CONS MODELS/ECMWF/GFS... WITH RAIN CHANCES CREEPING IN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL
BE LACKING... SO DID NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST
AT ALL. A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MAY OCCUR WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
DROP WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. 00Z
FRIDAY... THE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS
A SECOND SYSTEM FORMS AGAIN OVER COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM MAY TAKE A
SIMILAR TRACK AS THE MID-WEEK ONE... AND POPS WILL STAY PINNED TO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPS.... PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF
CHILLY LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE 40S ALONG THE COAST
AND LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE FOR HIGHS... AND LOWS IN THE 30S. IN
THE LONG RANGE... CPC KEEPS THE NORTHLAND IN PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS FROM DAY 6-10.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

N AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
HAS ENDED...BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OR MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. VFR
CONDITIONS HAVE EXPANDED OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WE EXPECT
CEILINGS WILL RISE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...AND WILL
AID IN PRODUCING FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE IMPACTING
KDLH FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  43  31  43 /  70  20   0   0
INL  29  53  30  54 /  40   0   0   0
BRD  35  49  33  52 /  50  20   0  20
HYR  36  51  33  55 /  60  20  10  10
ASX  34  44  32  46 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ143>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ140>142.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...DTM/CLC



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