Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 260812
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
312 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A stacked upper lever low currently seen in WV imagery rotating
over SE manitoba...will translate into Ontario through the day.
The resulting pressure gradient will produce widespread westerly
winds around 20 knots with gusts on the order of 30 knots
today...persisting into the evening. An embedded short wave in
the cyclonic flow will trigger showers across the Borderland and
Iron Range areas this afternoon. latest high resolution/cam simulated
reflectivity are depicting the showers move into the KINL
area around 18Z...spreading east across the iron range and into
the MN Arrowhead through the afternoon hours. Have introduced
isolated thunder to the fcst this afternoon as well as nam bufr
soundings are showing sufficient cape and saturated profiles to
support thunder.

The core of the cool canadian air mass will dive over the western
lake superior region Monday. Latest guidance suggests temps at
850hPa are on the order of just a degree or two above zero C pass
over the MN Arrowhead zones Monday afternoon. High Temperatures on
Monday will be well below normal with readings topping out generally
in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

An area of high pressure builds into the region Monday night and
keeps the area dry through Tuesday evening. Models are different
with the solution for Wednesday on rainfall. The GFS still has more
widespread precipitation across the region compared to ECMWF that
has precip mainly north of Highway 2.  A cold front is forecast to
move through the forecast area Wednesday night and Thursday brining
another round of showers and thunderstorms.  Another area of high
pressure builds into the region Thursday night and will keep the
area dry through Sunday when a shortwave may bring showers to the
western areas.

Tuesday night will be the coolest of the extended period with lows
mainly in the 40s.  For the rest of the week...highs will be in the
lower to middle 70s and lows in the lower to middle 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Mainly VFR conditions are expected across the TAF sites overnight,
as a dry slot moves across the Northland behind a departing cold
front. The dry slot will keep skies mostly clear overnight, but an
upper level low moving into the area on Sunday will bring MVFR CIGS
and VSBYS to KINL later tonight or early on Sunday. These conditions
will then move into the KHIB area during the late afternoon or
evening. The big story for most areas on Sunday will be the strong
westerly winds, gusting into the 30 knot range in spots. Some
showers will also accompany the lower clouds across the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  52  63  47 /  10  10  20   0
INL  71  52  65  45 /  60  60  20   0
BRD  81  54  67  50 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  82  54  66  49 /  10  10  20  10
ASX  83  56  63  49 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Graning
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...DAP



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