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000
FXUS63 KDLH 130535
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1235 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...LATER IN THE
NIGHT...APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL START TO SPREAD SOME HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN FROM THE WEST. THOSE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER A BIT ON MONDAY...WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY. COULD BE FAIRLY GUSTY...AND POSSIBLY
GUSTING INTO THE 20 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

.FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR BRAINERD LAKES TO PINE COUNTY TUESDAY...

CURRENT...CWA REMAINS UNDER THE CIRCULATION OF THE LARGE MID LVL
LOW CENTERED OVER ONT/QUEBEC VICINITY. SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER WRN CWA
WITH GUSTY WINDS STILL OCCURRING OVER ERN CWA. DEEP LAYER DRYING HAS
KEPT MOST OF THE AREA SUNNY... EXCEPT AN AREA OF CU ADVECTING SOUTH
INTO ERN ARROWHEAD AND A FEW LEFTOVER CU IN SE CORNER OF CWA. TEMPS
REMAIN BELOW CLIMO AS 85H THERMAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CWA.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AS BDRY LYR DECOUPLES WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SFC HIGH AND ITS
FCST POSITION BY 12Z...COLDEST READINGS SHOULD BE OVER THE INTERIOR
OF ERN WISC ZONES. TEMPS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 20 AND UPDATE TO EVEN
LOWER TEENS MAY BE NECESSARY. AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE WRN CWA AFTER 09Z AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL DEVELOP.

TOMORROW...A WEAK LOBE OF DIFF VORT ADVECTION WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM ADVECTION IN LOW LEVELS WILL PROVIDE SOME BDRY LYR LIFT
HOWEVER CONVERGENCE WILL BE LACKING AS SFC TROUGH REMAINS MAINLY
WEST OF REGION. MDL CONSENSUS IS THAT 20/30 POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR
MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH ARROWHEAD AND INTERIOR WISCONSIN. MAX TEMPS
STILL BLO CLIMO OVER ERN HALF OF CWA AND NEAR CLIMO IN THE WESTERN
CWA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FA MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE A MENTION OF
POPS FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE FRONT...THEN DRY AFTER
THAT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. NEXT WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE FA ON TUESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE SOME PCPN
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DRY BELOW 5K FT SO ANY
RAIN THAT REACHES THE GROUND WILL BE LIGHT. DO HAVE POPS IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH CAPPING AND LLJ INTERACTION
WITH THE FRONT AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS. A COLD FRONT QUICKLY
FOLLOWS BEHIND TUESDAY EVENING AND HAVE POPS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE FA WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS WITH THE
FRONT. THE FRONT EXITS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SFC RIDGING MOVING
IN. THE RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE FA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY FINDS A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL CRUISE THROUGH THE FA IN
THIS FAST FLOW AND HAVE SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY AS WELL AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL
DIFFERENCES ABOUND ON SATURDAY AND USED A BLENDED APPROACH.

AVIATION...18Z TAFS.
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. HAVE ADDED A VCSH MENTION TO INL/HIB/BRD
ABOUT 15Z MONDAY AS A SFC WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR TUESDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS REGION
DURING THE DAY WITH A WEDGE OF VERY WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO SWRN
CWA. FCST WIND PROFILES FAVOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
MIXING LAYER TAPS INTO UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN LOWEST 5K FT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED BY UNCERTAINTY OF LOW LVL DEWPOINTS. MDLS
FCST OF SFC DEWPOINTS SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM MOIST BIAS BASED
ON PROJECTED MIX DOWN OF DRIER AIR ALOFT. MOST FAVORED COMBINATION
OF LOW RH/STRONG WINDS WOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  43  68  51 /  30  10  40  20
INL  61  41  80  46 /  30  10  40  10
BRD  67  48  85  49 /  30  10  10  10
HYR  58  42  81  52 /  40  10  20  30
ASX  57  42  72  51 /  40  20  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ025-033-034-036-038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...DAP/MELDE