Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 251109
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
509 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 330 AM...THERE WAS A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
REGION HAVE HELPED TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE. IN
FACT...AT CRANE LAKE THE TEMPERATURE WAS 26 BELOW ZERO AT 3 AM. ON
THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM...IT WAS 5 ABOVE ZERO AT HINCKLEY.
CLOUDS HAD THICKENED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE FAR N/NE. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THE ONLY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...NAMELY
AROUND THE GOGEBIC RANGE AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS EARLY MORNING WILL BE THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTH. DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER...WE ARE NOT YET HITTING CRITERIA IN MANY OF THE AREAS THAT
ARE IN THE ADVISORY. STILL THINK THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR TEMPS TO DROP AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH...OR AT LEAST A THINNING OF CLOUD COVER.
AS A RESULT...WILL LEAVE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT...BUT
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN THE EVENT SOME OF THE AREA NEEDS TO BE
TRIMMED BACK THIS MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE THICKEST CLOUD
COVER WILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST...NEAR BRAINERD AND PINE RIVER.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...TO
10 TO 15 IN THE SOUTH.

WITH CLEARING SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE UPCOMING
NIGHT...WE AGAIN MAY NEED TO ISSUE WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. COULD ALSO SEE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE IN IRON COUNTY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AREA WIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND
THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE PREDOMINATELY
NORTHWEST FLOW.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THIS PATTERN OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN WARM
AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS...WITH SOME
GUIDANCE AS WARM AS THE LOW 30S FOR WEEKEND HIGHS. FOLLOWING THIS
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER THE CONUS WILL BE A DEEPENING UPPER
LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE WEST COAST INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE FARTHER NORTH A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR LIGHT PRECIP...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN A
SPECIFIC DAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WEAK IMPULSE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CLOUDS AT TIMES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
LOWER LEVEL CLOUD STREETS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUD STREETS WILL BE AT MVFR CLOUD
HEIGHTS...BUT DUE TO THEIR NATURE IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF
ANY ONE SITE WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR CEILINGS AT ANY GIVEN TIME.
HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF USING
SCATTERED GROUPS TO INDICATE THE BEST TIMING FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...AT GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   9 -14   7 -10 /   0   0   0   0
INL   3 -25   5 -18 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  10 -13   8 -12 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  10 -15   8 -13 /   0   0   0   0
ASX   8 -13   7  -7 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-026-037.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM





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