Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 171409 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
909 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING
EXPECTED TO ROTATE SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE LATEST UPDATE. STILL SEE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH
THE RAIN OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO PORTIONS OF
N-CENTRAL WI TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

UPDATE
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

CLOSED MID LVL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS CTRL CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED SOLUTION OF TRIPLE POINT REDEVELOPMENT IS
UNDERWAY WITH INITIAL SFC LOW JUST WEST OF KGNA...WITH SECONDARY SFC
LOW JUST EAST OF IRON COUNTY. A LOW LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONNECTS THESE
TWO FEATURES...REMNANT OF THE OCCLUDED BDRY. WITH DEEPENING OF BDRY
LYR N/NWRLY FLOW THE EARLIER DENSE FOG HAS DISSIPATED AND DFA HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.PRECIPITATION ORGANIZATION IS TIED TO LOW/MID LVL
FRONTOGENESIS FROM SOUTH SHORE NORTHWEST INTO THE ARROWHEAD. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF QUARTER TO HALF INCH HAVE BEEN FOCUSED OVER ST
LOUIS COUNTY. GUSTS ARE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH OVER WRN CWA AS
SFC PRESS GRADIENT INCREASES IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

TODAY...MID LVL LOW WILL MOVE WELL EAST OF THE REGION TAKING ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW/MID LVL SHEAR AXIS SOUTH OF THE CWA. MAJORITY OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING OVER TWIN PORTS AND OVER NW
WISC THROUGH THE AFTN HRS. GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER THE NORTHLAND AS SFC PRESS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
BUFKIT MOMENTUM PROFILES SUGGEST GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES NEAR THE
TWIN PORTS. MDL XSECTS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE TWIN PORTS AFTER 18Z.

TONIGHT...AN ELONGATED SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE WRN EDGE OF
THE CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY. RAIN WILL MIX WITH WET SNOW THIS EVENING
OVER THE ARROWHEAD. WISC ZONES WILL HAVE SLOW DISSIPATION OF
PRECIP BY MORNING WITH SOME WET SNOW POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER
BAYFIELD/IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES. ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR LESS
IS POSSIBLE OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES.

TOMORROW...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH SFC RIDGE AXIS
EASTWARD QUICKLY DURING THE DAY. BY AFTN...WARM ADVECTION WILL
HAVE BEGUN OVER WRN CWA. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN THE CLOUD
FORECAST. MDL SNDGS FROM NAM BUFR ARE INSISTING A LAYER OF LOW
BKN/OVC MAY PERSIST A LOT LONGER ACROSS THE CWA AS DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TRAPS RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE. UPDATES MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR THIS POTENTIAL AS CURRENT FCST IS NOT THAT
PESSIMISTIC.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFS ON BOTH
COASTS WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN CANADA.  NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE IN THE
OFFING FROM THIS WEEKEND THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK..WITH
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS
BOTTLED UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CANADA BY STRONG ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE TRANS-CANADA HIGHWAY CORRIDOR.

NW FLOW WAVE WILL SLIDE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN..WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE DULUTH CWA.  THEREAFTER..RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS..WITH GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
MON-THURS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

GUSTY WINDS INCREASING IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AS SFC PRESS
GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE REGION. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MOST TERMINALS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE DECREASING AT KBRD/KINL. MOST
PERSISTENT LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD OCCUR AT KHYR WHERE ADDED
INFLUENCE OF LAKE MOISTURE IS FORECAST. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO
HOW LONG MVFR LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY. CURRENT FCST IS MORE OPTIMISTIC HOWEVER AMENDMENTS MAY
BE NECESSARY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  33  46  36 /  70  20   0   0
INL  49  26  46  36 /  40  10   0  10
BRD  51  34  51  38 /  30   0   0   0
HYR  49  36  49  34 /  70  20   0   0
ASX  48  37  47  34 /  70  40  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BJT
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CANNON







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