Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 261749

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1249 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Stratocumulus clouds are developing a bit faster and farther south
underneath the southern periphery of the circulation associated
with the upper low located near Winnipeg this morning, so we have
made a few adjustments to sky cover to bring clouds farther south
through the afternoon/evening. Upstream radars on both sides of
the border are also revealing scattered precip echoes, so we have
made a few adjustments to precip chances to align with the latest
obs. Otherwise, the forecast is generally on track, with a strong
pressure gradient and deep mixing supporting W/SW winds sustained
over 20 mph with gusts above 30 mph in most areas into this
evening, before winds weaken and become more NW.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A stacked upper lever low currently seen in WV imagery rotating
over SE manitoba...will translate into Ontario through the day.
The resulting pressure gradient will produce widespread westerly
winds around 20 knots with gusts on the order of 30 knots
today...persisting into the evening. An embedded short wave in
the cyclonic flow will trigger showers across the Borderland and
Iron Range areas this afternoon. latest high resolution/cam simulated
reflectivity are depicting the showers move into the KINL
area around 18Z...spreading east across the iron range and into
the MN Arrowhead through the afternoon hours. Have introduced
isolated thunder to the forecast this afternoon as well as nam
bufr soundings are showing sufficient cape and saturated profiles
to support thunder.

The core of the cool canadian air mass will dive over the western
lake superior region Monday. Latest guidance suggests temps at
850hPa are on the order of just a degree or two above zero C pass
over the MN Arrowhead zones Monday afternoon. High Temperatures on
Monday will be well below normal with readings topping out generally
in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

An area of high pressure builds into the region Monday night and
keeps the area dry through Tuesday evening. Models are different
with the solution for Wednesday on rainfall. The GFS still has more
widespread precipitation across the region compared to ECMWF that
has precip mainly north of Highway 2.  A cold front is forecast to
move through the forecast area Wednesday night and Thursday brining
another round of showers and thunderstorms.  Another area of high
pressure builds into the region Thursday night and will keep the
area dry through Sunday when a shortwave may bring showers to the
western areas.

Tuesday night will be the coolest of the extended period with lows
mainly in the 40s.  For the rest of the week...highs will be in the
lower to middle 70s and lows in the lower to middle 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR through much of the forecast. Showers will be in the vicinity
of INL/HIB/DLH late this afternoon into the evening due to timing
in the fast flow aloft and the arrival of a cold front. Ceilings
may briefly drop into the MVFR range in the vicinity of moderate
showers. Gusty surface winds will prevail until around sunset
before diminishing. MVFR ceilings will also occur after midnight
at all but HYR where those ceilings arrive toward sunrise. Some
showers may be in the vicinity of HYR around sunrise as the cold
front pushes into northwest Wisconsin.


DLH  79  52  63  47 /  10  20  20   0
INL  71  52  65  45 /  60  60  20   0
BRD  81  54  67  50 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  82  54  66  49 /  10  10  20  10
ASX  83  56  63  49 /  10  20  30  10


.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Monday for LSZ121-140>148.



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