Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 230826
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
326 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA AT 07Z WITH
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A NNE WIND BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE WEAK CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED FOR A
FEW SHOWERS...BUT THEY HAVE DISSIPATED. AN ENE FLOW OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR IS ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH FOG ADVECTING IN OFF
THE LAKE INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE.
FOG ELSEWHERE IS DUE TO RADIATIONAL EFFECTS AND WILL BURN OFF BY
16Z. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RETREAT A BIT WWD AND BE JUST ON THE EDGE
OF THE WESTERN FA BY 18Z. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND IS FORECAST TO BISECT THE
FA FROM THE ARROWHEAD TO NW WI. WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE
UP INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL RESULT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE
DAKOTAS AND NOT IN THE FA. THEREFORE...THE PCPN CHANCES ARE BEING
REMOVED UNTIL 23Z WHEN A POP IS INTRODUCED TO THE SW CORNER OF
SOUTHERN CASS COUNTY. EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
LS ALL DAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES E OF THE FA BY 06Z WHILE A SFC LOW GETS
ORGANIZED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTS NWD INTO NW ND BY 12Z
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE SFC FRONT MOVES N INTO CANADA PUTTING THE FA
IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. SHORT WAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO RIDE UP INTO
THE FA AHEAD OF A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN
MONTANA. HAVE GRADUALLY RAMPED UP POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE TO THE NORTH SHORE...AN ONSHORE WIND AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE MORE FOG AND HAVE IT MENTIONED UNTIL
06Z SUNDAY.

THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW MEANDERS INTO NW ND BY 00Z MONDAY LEAVING THE
FA IN A STIFF SLY FLOW. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE NEWD
THROUGH THE FA AND BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE
SUN CAN FINALLY BREAK THROUGH ON SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE MIDDLE 80S OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES. INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEE
THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC FOR THE FINER DETAILS. EVEN
WITH PWATS TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES...STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE RELATIVELY
QUICK REDUCING THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL FINISH PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO FORM ALONG
IT.  TOO SOON TO DETERMINE HOW LATE IN THE EVENING THE SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES...BUT DEPENDS ON HOW FAST THE LINE MOVES...HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY BUILT UP DURING THE DAY...AND OUR EVENTUAL SHEAR
PARAMETERS.  IT COULD BE AN INTERESTING NIGHT.  HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS
IN THE EVENING...AND THEN ALLOWED A DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD OVER THE EAST...BUT OVER THE WEST WE
COULD GET INTO THE MID 50S AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING...AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW LEFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA.  THUS...HAVE DRY OR VERY SMALL POPS FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT
MAINLY AFFECTS AREA SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH SOME MODELS
BRUSH THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH RAIN.  HAVE DECIDED TO CARRY SOME POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR BOTH DAYS FOR NOW AS CANNOT DISCOUNT THE WETTER
SOLUTION.  MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN SUNDAY...AND COOL
FURTHER INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND CAN WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE PUT A DRY FORECAST OUT
THERE FOR BOTH DAYS.  TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...WARMING A LITTLE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS CONTINUED TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH LATE. FOG/STRATUS IS STILL EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND LEADING TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.

THE FOG WILL LIFT FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MAY LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS WELL...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED. WE DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT YET...AS CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOWER
THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  61  80  61 /  10  40  60  70
INL  76  62  79  55 /  10  80  70  50
BRD  76  65  84  56 /  10  80  70  40
HYR  77  66  85  65 /  10  20  40  60
ASX  70  62  85  66 /  10  40  70  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...MELDE/LE






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