Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 181544
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1144 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will stall across western New York through Tuesday
leading to scattered showers during the afternoon hours each
day. Otherwise, fair and warm weather will continue through next
weekend with temperatures averaging 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure across New England will continue to ridge back
into Western New York this morning. This will maintain dry
weather through at least the morning hours. Radiation fog is a
bit more patchy than the past couple nights, but what fog there
is will dissipate through mid-morning.

A weak cold front will approach the region from the west today, then
move into Western New York tonight before essentially washing out
across the region. Moisture will increase ahead of the front today,
which should be enough to destabilize the airmass with the benefit
of daytime heating. Instability was ample for a few showers to
develop yesterday, and the increase in boundary layer moisture will
result in a bit more widespread showers. Model consensus brings a
ribbon of moisture into western New York ahead of the front.
Scattered showers should develop along and inland of subtle lake
breeze boundaries across Western New York. Since guidance suggests
that a weakened subsidence cap may still be in place, the potential
for thunderstorms is diminished though a few cannot be ruled out.
Expect coverage with be more than yesterday, but still scattered
in nature.

Temperatures will be warm again today, with highs in the upper 70s
to lower 80s. This is just a tad cooler than yesterday due to the
increase in cloud cover.

By the time the front moves into western New York tonight it will
barely be discernible. Tonight should be mainly dry, with the front
too weak to produce any more than widely scattered showers. Also,
winds will continue to be light but there will be an increase in
cloud cover near the weakening front. There will again be a risk for
fog, especially in spots that clear out. Lows will be in the upper
50s to lower 60s, which is still well above normal for this time of
year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday will start with a weak front lying across WNY, with a light
southeast to southerly flow ahead of this front across the Genesee
Valley and points eastward...and a northerly flow entering Niagara
County, and across Lake Erie. It will be along this weak, washing
out frontal boundary that a few showers may be present to start
Tuesday. This front will edge only slightly eastward through the day
before washing out...with any chances for showers or an isolated
thunderstorm remaining along the Genesee Valley and points westward.

Tuesday night should calm down pretty quickly, with any showers
ending and clouds thinning to a mainly clear night as the region
will lie on the westerly periphery...and subsidence zone of
Hurricane Jose.

While Jose will not have any big impact on our region, it will bring
about a light northerly flow across the region. This northerly flow
(10 knots or less) over the cooler waters of Lake Ontario Tuesday
may yield highs only in the mid to upper 70s...holding any 80F
readings to areas east of Lake Ontario.

Wednesday a strong ridge will again establish itself across the
region. Subsidence from this ridge will bring mostly sunny
skies...though the still northerly winds across Lake Ontario will
likely again hold off 80F readings to areas east of Lake Ontario.

Lows both Tuesday night and Wednesday night will be in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. River Valley fog will be likely both nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A seasonally strong 500mb cut-off high is forecast to drift over the
eastern Great Lakes through next weekend in response to a deep
trough digging across the western states. This high should provide
summer-like temperatures for the start of Autumn. 850mb temps are
forecast to rise to between +16C and +18C which should easily allow
high temperatures to reach low to mid 80s if not warmer in many
spots. With perfect dry-adiabatic mixing upper 80s in many locations
may be possible. The subsidence brought on by the high will make for
dry and mainly cloud-free weather. Southerly low level flow should
also hold dewpoints in the 60s keeping a humid feel to the airmass.
Hurricane Jose or the remnants of, looks to loop around off the
southern New England coast which should not impact western and
central NY weather.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR is expected to be maintain at most TAF sites with an increase in
mid and high level clouds this afternoon. A cold front will continue
to approach Western New York introducing a few showers and possibly
an isolated thunderstorm after 19Z into the evening hours. However,
most locations should maintain VFR.

Tonight, any lingering showers or thunderstorms that do develop will
dissipate with VFR conditions holding through the overnight hours.
Valley fog will again develop across the Southern Tier for a period
between 7Z and 13Z.

Tuesday, VFR is expected again at most TAF sites. A few showers will
be possible along the cold front as it is forecast to weaken and
stalls across Western New York.


Outlook... Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR. IFR to MVFR
conditions possible each night with valley fog formation between
07-13z.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak cold front will fall apart as it stalls across the Lower
Great Lakes through tonight. Then high pressure will take up
residence across eastern Canada and the Lower Great Lakes for
Tuesday through at least Thursday. This will continue our stretch of
fine weather with very favorable conditions for recreational boating.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...APFFEL/RSH



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