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000
FXUS61 KBUF 172102
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
502 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MARKING ITS PASSAGE...BUT IMPROVING
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
FAIR WEATHER FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SO FAR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS. ACROSS THE WEST THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OFF THE LAKE HAS BEEN ABLE TO SUPRESS ANY ACTIVITY.. SO FAR.
THE DISTINCT LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING
TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF WEAK DEVELOPMENT. WOULD EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THEN ONCE THE LAKE BREEZE
SUBSIDES THE BROAD AREA OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL
SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS
SOUTHWARD TREK.

ON TUESDAY SOME CLOUDS/SHOWERS LINGER IN THE MORNING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH. DRY, ALBEIT COOLER, AIR OVERSPREADS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ENSURE A DRY AND LESS HUMID STRETCH OF
WEATHER WITH MAINLY SUNNY DAYS AND MAINLY CLEAR NIGHTS. HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SETTING THE STAGE FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...YIELDING LOWS IN THE
THE LOWER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF FAIR WEATHER LOOKS TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN CONTROL. A BIT MORE HUMIDITY
SHOULD START TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION...AT LEAST INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST ALLOWING A WEAK RETURN FLOW TO SET UP.

AFTER THIS...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE ONE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES LOOK TO RIDE OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE CERTAINLY WARMER AND MORE
HUMID WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE EVEN WARMER AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE
TEENS TO NEAR 20C. HOWEVER...WILL PLAY IT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE
DUE TO QUESTIONS OVER THE ACTUAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE FIGHT CONDITION FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR THROUGH 02Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY
WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WITH
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN