Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 261950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP
MID SUMMERLIKE WARMTH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEGINNING TO RE-DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTS
ACROSS OHIO. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVEING.
THIS ACTIVITY THEN DIES OUT DURING THE EVENING WITHE THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAINING PRETTY MUCH DRY.

AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT LEAD SHORTWAVE/PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH BRINGS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
BACK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. TIMING OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AND THE
FINGER LAKES WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT. FURTHER
EAST THE LATER ARRIVAL AND ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A SLIGHT THREAT OF SEVERE TSTMS. .

THOUGH NOT A TOTAL WASHOUT WEDNESDAY...MOST AREAS WILL PICK UP
SOME BADLY NEEDED RAINFALL. WITH PWATS 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH HAVE
MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WITH TOMORROWS THUNDERSTORMS.

FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE EXPECT A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A
SPELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...WITH THE HUMID AIRMASS AND A
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE... LOWS
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT FALL BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT...
REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
NY DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT SHOULD BE ALREADY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG EARLIER AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL AID ANY CONVECTION THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY DUE A
DRYING AIRMASS AT ALL LEVELS FROM SUBSIDENCE.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER BUT WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY THERE SHOULD BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE
INDUCED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT CURRENT MODELS STILL
LOOK QUITE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WITH
TIME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.  WILL INCLUDE A LIKELY
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME INSOLATION AND TYPICAL LAKE BREEZE TRIGGERS ALONG WITH
AN EVENTUAL SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A DRY DAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY SLOW WARMING RETURNS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE ALSO RETURNING.  THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION
WITH A CHANCE FOR DAILY AFTERNOON AND OR EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
ALONG AND EAST OF LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE THEN MOVING ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES. THESE SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN SCT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS. THIS
EVENING...LINGERING DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING OWING TO THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
NIGHT...BEFORE AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT LEAD
SHORTWAVE/PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH BRINGS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT EXPECT THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO LARGELY PREVAIL.. THOUGH LOCAL REDUCTIONS TO MVFR WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY CONVECTION. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS/ ATTENDANT MVFR. THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER
LAKES. SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WEAK TO
MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INTACT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS
AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE GENERAL RULE...THOUGH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
WAVES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN


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