Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 031507
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1107 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY SUNNY
WEATHER. A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRACK OFF THE JERSEY COAST TODAY
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH DIPPING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE KEPT NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DRY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND VORT MAX TRACKS OVER LAKE ERIE. EXPECT ANY LINGERING FOG
TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL HOLD IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE HIGHS
RANGING IN THE U50S TO ABOUT 60S. A LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES OFF ERIE AND ONTARIO TO KEEP THE LAKE SHORES A
BIT COOLER DOWN INTO THE L50S.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM BOTH THE SOUTH AND NORTH
AS THE LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST SHIFTS TO MICHIGAN AND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST WRAPS BACK WEST ACROSS NEW
YORK. HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TOWARD THE TUG HILL WHERE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE EAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH TRACKING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO NOT BE AS COOL TONIGHT AS WELL AS MORE LIMITED
COVERAGE OF ANY FOG. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE L/M 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST...WITH THE STRONGEST PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE FORM
OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES.
MEANWHILE A WEAKER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN NY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MOST ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MICHIGAN
AND OHIO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGER MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW.
FARTHER EAST...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO CENTRAL NY AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY NEAR THE WEAKER SHORTWAVE. THE RAIN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BRINGING
A PEAK IN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTTY MORNING SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID
60S. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MUCH
COOLER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MAIN MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW DIGS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...LEAVING BEHIND A WEAKER MID
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. FOLLOWING ANY LEFTOVER
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...EXPECT JUST A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK AND DISORGANIZED
FORCING OVER OUR REGION. LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...WITH MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

ON THURSDAY THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC NORTHWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE WITH ONLY WEAK AND
DISORGANIZED SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. WITH THIS IN MIND...AGAIN EXPECT
RAIN COVERAGE TO BE TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH BETTER COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...
WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES ON THE LAKE PLAINS WHERE LAKE MODIFIED AIR
WILL TEMPER INSTABILITY. HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S
WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL AGAIN KEEP
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MUCH COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONSOLIDATES OVER THE OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH
WEAKENING ACROSS NEW YORK. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
POSSIBLE IN THE LAKE PLAINS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THE MAJORITY OF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEP MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THE
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST ECMWF TRACK DOES BRING SOME RAIN INTO CENTRAL
NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH DRY WEATHER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY IN
SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COASTAL LOW. EXPECT
HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S IN MANY AREAS...WITH A NORTH WIND AGAIN
KEEPING THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE COOLER.

ON SATURDAY THE EAST COAST LOW WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST AS AN
UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. A NARROW THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY
AFTERNOON AND SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S IN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM
THE LAKESHORES. AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL KEEP THE BUFFALO
AND WATERTOWN AREAS COOLER.

A POTENT COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING CONTINUES TO
JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONT AS WELL...BUT WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DESTABILIZATION HAVE KEPT THE MENTION TO JUST
SHOWERS FOR NOW.  BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL
ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C ON BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. THE DEEP TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO A LITTLE CLOSER TO EARLY MAY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE LOW CIGS (LESS THAN 1000 FEET) AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES PRODUCING IFR WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY LOW VFR/MVFR WILL RULE
THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF CU PRODUCING SCT-BKN SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DISSIPATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL ALLOW FOR VFR TO RETURN AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE
ACTION. THE WEATHER PATTERN AGAIN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK BUT WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...SMITH


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