Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 240610
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
210 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer is on its way with highs climbing through the 70s and into
the 80s.  After a dry day across Western New York on Tuesday, a
scattered shower or thunderstorm is possible each day leading up to
and into the Memorial Day weekend. Temperatures may reach the mid-
80s across the lower elevations by Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A narrow ridge of high pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will
build across the region today in between a closed low moving off the
New England Coast and the next approaching shortwave over the upper
Great Lakes. The dry airmass and subsidence will support abundant
shine across much of the region, with perhaps a few high, thin
clouds sneaking into the North County on the back side of the
aforementioned closed-low. 850 mb temperatures will run only
slightly warmer than yesterday, about +12C. However, the strong late-
May sun will combine with increasing mixed westerly winds to bump
temperatures up a degrees or two. Thus highs will mainly be in the
upper 70s in the higher terrain and about 80 in the lower elevations.
The only place where this won`t hold true will be just northeast of
Lakes Erie and Ontario, near Buffalo and Watertown, where the
westerly flow will help the lake breeze penetrate farther inland.
Have cooled temperatures near the Buffalo waterfront compared to
yesterday, and held KBUF and KART in the upper 70s.

Tonight will continued clear skies early, then increasing clouds
from northwest to southeast overnight. A weak shortwave will track
through Ontario and flatten out the previously sharp ridge axis. The
associated weak frontal boundary will approach Lake Ontario by 12Z
Wednesday. Thus any possible showers will hold off until after the
overnight period. The only sensible impacts overnight will be
increasing cloud cover, a continued westerly breeze, and increasing
low-level moisture, all of which will help keep overnight lows in
the 50s to near 60 in the typical downslope areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

After this a weak disturbance will move across or pass just north
of the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Timing is
unfavorable from a diurnal heating and instability perspective,
which will lower the chances for showers with this wave. On
Wednesday afternoon marginal instability showers and thunderstorms
should develop mainly on lake breeze boundaries. Consensus QPF is
limited with higher resolution guidance capturing the stabilizing
influence of the lakes best. Forecast confidence is above average
due to the good model agreement handling this wave for the 00Z and
12Z runs of the NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF.

Following a lull Wednesday evening another more significant wave
will cross the region on Thursday. This will originate from a
shortwave which will help lift a warm front and advect moisture into
the region. PWAT values are forecast to increase to around 1.75
inches. Timing is also more favorable to take advantage of
instability associated with daytime heating, especially from the
Finger Lakes Region into Central New York where model consensus
brings the wave across during the afternoon hours. Increasing
instability supports a chance of thunderstorms across the entire cwa.
It is also worth noting that low level wind fields will be weak
suggesting that there may be some slow moving storms which could
produce locally heavy rainfall. Any threat for flooding is somewhat
mitigated by recent dry weather.

Temperatures will be above normal during the period, especially on
Thursday when 850mb temperatures are forecast to reach +15C.
Forecast highs are above consensus temperature guidance with
temperatures inland of the lake breeze expected to reach the lower
80s in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Latest medium range models and ensembles continuing to suggest a
summery weather pattern is on the way, just in time for Memorial Day
weekend, complete with increasing humidity and daily chances for
mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

The overall pattern will evolve with the forecast area located near
the northern periphery of a large scale ridging centered just off
the mid-Atlantic coast. The placement of the ridge will not only
allow a steady feed of warm and moist air into the region, but will
also supply numerous shortwaves riding over the top of the ridge as
forcing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms especially during
peak diurnal heating. It is hard to put a real timing in the
extended with this type of pattern. Therefore, will maintain chance
category probabilities through the period. The greater chances will
likely be from inland lake breezes over the northern Niagara
Frontier and hilly region east of Lake Erie...and higher terrain
east of Lake Ontario.

At 500 hPa heights will slowly increase through the long term
period...and at 850 hPa...air temperatures will range from +14 to
+17c through the period. Warmest 850 hPa temperatures will come
Saturday...during the peak height of the upper level ridge. The
southerly flow will also build the humidity through this period with
uncomfortable levels reached by the end of the week. Dewpoints will
reach to around 60F to the lower 60s. Air temperatures will likely
increase a degree each day...as 500 hPa heights slowly increase.
Afternoon highs will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Would
not rule out some mid-80s by the weekend for the Genesee Valley and
for lower elevations south of Lake Ontario. There will not be much
airflow under the ridge...but a SW wind will likely develop each
day...keeping the City of Buffalo a few degrees cooler...with the
cooling extending out to near the airport. Along the immediate Lake
Ontario shoreline...and then the western Saint Lawrence Valley...air
temperature will be a few degrees cooler owing to the still cool
eastern Great Lakes. Overnight lows will drop back into the lower
60s...and with a similar airmass all four nights should have similar
overnight lows.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure will build across the region today bringing
abundant sunshine and a light westerly breeze, resulting in
widespread VFR conditions.

A few high, thin clouds will build across the region from northwest
to southeast late tonight, but widespread VFR conditions with a
light westerly breeze will continue.

Outlook...
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure will build across the lakes today bringing
abundant sunshine and westerly breeze. Winds and waves will remain
fairly negligible through the next few days. The tranquil pattern
will continue through the end of the week, although a few
thunderstorms may produce locally higher winds and waves at times
each day from Wednesday through next weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH


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