Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 222345
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
745 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. OUR REGION IS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO PERIODICALLY
CLIP EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAIN DRY.
AT 700 PM...RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CLIPPING
LEWIS COUNTY. THIS SHOULD PIVOT SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE NEXT WAVE IN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. 18Z
RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR KEEP MOST OF
THE QPF TO OUR EAST...OUTSIDE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY CLIPPING
LEWIS COUNTY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAPPEN AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE SAME AREA. OTHERWISE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...HOWEVER IR SATELLITE SHOWS SOME
DRIER AIR WORKING IN WHICH MAY HELP DISSIPATE SOME OF THE FOG LATE
TONIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST TO FILL WESTWARD
SOME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ADDED CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
YET...WESTWARD TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY AGAIN LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW.

ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FILL IN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE COOL AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES. INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WHEN DRIER AIR FINALLY HELPS MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH DRY AIR REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR PERIODS OF
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALLING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHERE
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER WHICH CLEAR OUT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HOWEVER
FARTHER WESTWARD 50S WILL BE FOUND...AND POTENTIALLY MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF CAPE COD. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 50S FRIDAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT
HAVING A MUCH BETTER RUN AT THE 60S SATURDAY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND LOW CLOUD COVER LESSENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A
COLD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
CRITICAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ALL RAIN...BUT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY AS RIDGING TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN FACT...SOME AREAS
MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL
WORK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCHING OFF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 23Z DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. FOR BUF/IAG THIS WILL PROBABLY BRING VFR WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ITS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN THIS DRIER AIR REACHES JHW...WITH
FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES SHOWING SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY THE REST OF THE NIGHT DEPENDING HOW
PERSISTENT LOW MOISTURE REMAINS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT ON THURSDAY AS
DRIER AIR FINALLY MIXES IN. BUF/IAG/JHW/ROC SHOULD ALL IMPROVE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.

FOR ART...EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS. BASED ON RUC/NAM
FORECASTS...HAVE ADDED LLWS TO ART WHERE A 40KT NE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND TO LAST OVERNIGHT.
PERIODIC BUT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR SHOWERS/CIGS
LIKELY AT ART.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH
ALLOWED US TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THERE. MEANWHILE A
BRISK FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WINDS WILL PICK UP TO STRONG
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NEAR 30 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
BASED ON THIS HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES A BIT LONGER FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINES.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
AGAIN RISING TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS





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