Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 310835
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
435 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE
WARMTH THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESENCE OF A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE LOWER GREAT LAKES` LOCATION ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS HIGH IS PLACING THE AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT...COMBINED WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST SHOULD YIELD A LARGELY SUNNY AND WARM DAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...THIS WILL FEEL QUITE STICKY HOWEVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF ANY SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU
POSSIBLE INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. 850MB FLOW SHOULD RELAX AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY OVERHEAD AND THIS SHOULD BETTER FACILITATE
DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA. IN TURN THE RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...IN ADDITION TO HIGH DEWPOINTS...SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
PATCHY FOG THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH FOG BEING MOST ACUTE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS WELL AS THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT THE
HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL
EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20 WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS A
POSITIVE 1-2SD ANOMALY. THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION
OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. SURFACE
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY
SLIPPING BACK INTO THE 60S.

00Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR  WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A 700MB
INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSING
SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSES SOUTH
ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
WITH MODEST /POSSIBLY SURFACE BASED/ INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT WITH
LIFT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PRESENT. FRIDAY ALSO PRESENTS A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER END OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR
AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR BOTH NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PRESENCE OF A 15-20KT LLJ ACROSS WESTERN NY APPEARS TO HAVE THUS
FAR PREVENTED DECOUPLING SUFFICIENTLY TO HAMPER FOG FORMATION THIS
MORNING ACROSS ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS. HOWEVER LATEST
OBS INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO DIMINISH AT MULTIPLE
LOCATIONS AND STILL EXPECT THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED FOG
DEVELOP BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE AND WILL LEAVE TEMPO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH THIS UPDATE.

ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE
LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD



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