Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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746
FXUS61 KBUF 162046
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
446 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure passing over the region today will provide our region
with fantastic weather through the first half of Thursday. A warm
front will then stubbornly push north across our area late
Thursday and Thursday night...with increasingly widespread
showers and thunderstorms marking its progress. This will be
followed by a cold front and more thunderstorm activity on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure passing just to our north will provide us with simply
outstanding weather this afternoon and evening. Nearly ideal for
outdoor activities.

As we push through tonight...the surface high will slowly drift to
our east. This will favor mainly clear starlit skies...and with
light winds...we can anticipate comfortable conditions for sleeping
with temperatures falling into the 50s. It may be a bit chilly in
some of the Southern Tier valleys...or more likely in the foothills
of the `Dacks` in Lewis County where the mercury could dip into the
40s. The only blemish on tonights weather will be some fairly
widespread fog that will develop across the Southern Tier and also
across some of the open agricultural areas. Motorists should be wary
of some of this fog if driving through the more rural areas
overnight.

On Thursday...pleasant conditions during the morning will gradually
give way to increasing clouds as a warm front will approach the
region. As we make our way through the afternoon...this cloud cover
will lower and thicken from the southwest. There could even be some
showers and thunderstorms over the far western counties by the end
of the day...with the unsettled weather further blossoming after
dinnertime. Otherwise...it will be warm with a return of more humid
conditions. Max temps will generally be in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front will continue to lift north across the region Thursday
night. The associated showers/thunderstorm have a ample supply of
moisture with PW of 1.5 to 2.0" thus locally heavy downpours are
possible. Expect a warm muggy night Thursday night with
temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.

The showers/tstms continue into Friday ahead of and along an
approaching cold front. While most of the convection not expected to
be severe, increasing shear could be just enough to allow some of
the stronger storms to produce damaging wind gusts. SPC continues to
outline much of the region in its Day 3 outlook.  Look for max temps
in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Weak surface ridging builds across the CWA in the wake of the cold
front with drying slowly taking place with lingering showers
tapering off from west to east Friday night. It will be a few
degrees cooler with lows dropping into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Saturday...the guidance suite is in pretty good agreement that
the surface low responsible for the unsettled conditions of the
previous couple of days will bodily lift northeastward across
northern Quebec Province...while its rather sharp parent upper level
trough digs across the Central/Lower Great Lakes. The westerly upslope
flow in the wake of the surface low and its trailing cold front will
probably lead to some scattered morning showers across the North
Country...with more general lower-end shower chances then arriving
during the afternoon in concert with diurnal heating and the arrival
of the upper level trough/cooler air aloft. Otherwise less humid
conditions and seasonable temperatures will prevail...with afternoon
highs mostly in the mid to upper 70s and dewpoints largely running
in the lower 60s. Saturday night any showers should largely fade out
with the loss of heating and diurnally-driven instability...while
continued gradual cool/dry air advection allows overnight lows to
drop back to more comfortable levels in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

After that...Sunday and Monday both look to feature quiet and dry
weather as sprawling surface-based ridging builds into our region
from the Ohio Valley on Sunday...then only slowly drifts eastward and
off the Delmarva coastline on Monday. With plenty of attendant dry
air also in place...this will allow for mostly sunny/mainly clear
skies...thereby resulting in near ideal sky conditions for viewing
of Monday`s solar eclipse. Otherwise slow but steady warming of our
airmass will allow daytime highs to climb back into the upper 70s and
lower 80s on Sunday and into the mid 80s in many places on Monday...
while dewpoints remain at tolerable levels (around 60 on Sunday and
in the lower 60s on Monday).

As we progress deeper into the new work week...our weather still
looks to turn more unsettled again for later Tuesday and especially
Tuesday night...when the medium range guidance suggests that the next
upper level trough and associated cold front will move across our
region. Have continued to advertise broadbrush chance PoPs to cover
the passage of these features...with our area then drying out from
northwest to southeast on Wednesday following the frontal passage.
With warmer and more humid air continuing to advect into our region
out ahead of this system...expect highs on Tuesday to surge all the
way into the mid to upper 80s while dewpoints climb back into the
mid 60s...which will make for a rather uncomfortable day. Following
the passage of the cold front...cooler and less humid air will then
spread back into our region on Wednesday...when daytime highs will
retreat back into the mid and upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure passing over the region this evening will keep fair
VFR conditions in place for the bulk of the region through tonight.
The exception will be across the Southern Tier...where widespread
valley fog is once again expected between 08 and 13z.

While VFR conditions will be in place across the region on
Thursday...increasing clouds will lower and thicken form the
southwest during the course of the day. In fact...these clouds will
yield some showers and possible thunderstorms over the far western
counties after 18z.

Outlook...
Thursday night...VFR deteriorating to IFR/MVFR in increasing
coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...MVFR improving to VFR with showers and thunderstorms
exiting during the midday and afternoon.
Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday into Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure drifting across the Lower Great Lakes tonight will
keep light winds and minimal waves in place through the first half
Thursday.

As the high pressure exits across New England...a warm front will
approach the region Thursday afternoon. This will set up a light
southeasterly flow with negligible waves remaining in place.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the warm front will
increase in coverage later Thursday afternoon and particularly
Thursday night. Mariners should be wary of the deteriorating
conditions...as some of the thunderstorms may warrant special marine
warnings.

The showers and thunderstorms will persist across the Lower Great
Lakes through at least the first half of Friday when a cold front
will push across the region. These storms could again be rather
strong...especially on the eastern half of Lake Ontario and in the
St Lawrence Valley.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...CHURCH/RSH



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