


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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096 FXUS61 KBUF 120027 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 827 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry weather expected through the remainder of this evening. A few showers and storms will be possible overnight across western New York. Otherwise, heat and humidity will be on the rise through the weekend. A slow-moving cold front will push through the area Sunday and Sunday night with widespread showers and thunderstorms, some producing locally heavy rainfall. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Any waning scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will remain to our east and west through the remainder of the evening, with temperatures slowly falling through the 70s. A lead shortwave over the western Great Lakes will approach the region overnight. Warm air advection and deeper moisture will increase chances for showers and a few thunderstorms across far western New York after midnight. This activity may linger farther to the east into the start of Saturday morning. Heat and humidity build on Saturday. Temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s, with a few lower 90s in the Genesee Valley and the lake plains south of Lake Ontario. Dewpoints are forecast near 70 degrees, which may result in heat indices in the mid 90s along the lake plains/Genesee Valley/northern Finger Lakes. Heat advisories may eventually be needed depending upon amount of cloud cover, especially early in the day. Warm air aloft will likely keep most of the region capped, however some CAMs do show at least some potential for widely scattered afternoon convection, mainly across the Finger Lakes region into Central New York. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Another warm and humid day expected Sunday, but it does not look quite as hot as Saturday. Some of the warmest heat indices could still get into the lower 90s along the lake plains/Genesee Valley/northern Finger Lakes. All this heat and humidity will be ahead of an approaching cold front slowly pushing into the region, resulting in increasing cover coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values rising to 2+" will bring the risk of locally heavy rainfall. Flooding concerns will certainly be elevated during this time, especially from slower moving thunderstorms combined with somewhat lower 3 hour flash flood guidance in the 2-2.5" inch range. The greatest threat will be from the interior Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... After the mid-level trough`s axis passes across the eastern Great Lakes and into New England Monday, ridging will build overhead through mid week ahead of the next trough`s passage later in the week. This all being said, as the corresponding cold front from Sunday finishes exiting eastern New York Monday morning, dry weather will return and last through much of the first half of the week. While dry, the building ridge aloft will support southwest winds to advect in warm Gulf air into western and north central New York supporting hot and humid weather, featuring heat indices well into the 80s and even 90s by Wednesday. Guidance continues to support timing and strength differences with the next longwave trough and associated cold front`s arrival. This being said, kept a chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Friday. Additionally, with the front`s arrival expect an alleviation in the heat and humidity for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Widespread VFR flight conditions will persist, as any waning scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will remain to our east and west through the remainder of the evening. Upstream activity from the west moves into western NY after midnight. Overall flight conditions will remain VFR, however there is a low chance that a thunderstorm could produce a localized brief period of IFR or below conditions. Low confidence for some patchy fog overnight through a little after daybreak over southeastern Cattaraugus and southern Allegany counties where it rained the previous evening. Any lingering widely scattered shower/thunderstorm activity to start off Saturday will wane through the morning hours, before daytime heating brings renewed low chances for a few showers/scattered thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into the early evening, especially from the Finger Lakes eastward. Any heavier shower or thunderstorm will again have the possibility of producing a localized brief period of IFR or below conditions. Outlook... Saturday night through Sunday night...A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR restrictions possible. Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Generally light winds and nearly flat wave conditions over Lakes Erie and Ontario through Saturday. The next notable cold frontal passage expected later Sunday into Sunday night with southerly flow increasing some out ahead of the front, however conditions expected to remain well below headline criteria. Following the cold front, winds become westerly Sunday night, before weakening to less than 10 knots on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds in. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSK/JM/JJR/TMA NEAR TERM...JM/TMA SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM/JJR/TMA