Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 261823
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
223 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA WILL MAINTAIN
A SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK. THE SNOW
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. COLD AIR
ARRIVES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TO
START NEXT WEEK...AND WILL BRING A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...COLD
AIR WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AS SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SNOW SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
LOW MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. THE TRACK OF THE
LOW WILL LAY DOWN A BAND OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THE HIGHER LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES JUST FREEZING AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING WILL
KEEP THAT SNOW FROM ACCUMULATING TOO HEAVILY ON PAVEMENT...KEEPING
AREA ROADWAYS MAINLY WET.

THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AS
THE UPPER TROUGH HANGS BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC
PROVINCE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BASIN AND PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...850MB TEMPS TO
-12C WILL STEEPEN THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE AND BOOST BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY AND 850MB-LAKE TEMP DIFFERENCE IS JUST BARELY ENOUGH TO
KICK IN A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
LOWER LAKES AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEPER
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...WHILE AN EAST/WEST ORIENTED TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND THE FIRST
HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. STEADY COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -16C. THIS WILL SUPPORT
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF AROUND 6K FEET. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A WIDE AREA OF FAIRLY LIGHT
BUT PERSISTENT LAKE ENHANCEMENT FRIDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ROCHESTER
WEST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE
EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FAR
WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND CONTRIBUTING TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.

ANY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY WILL STAY FAIRLY
DISORGANIZED WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FROM EARLY FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF FORCING...
MOISTURE...AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS PERIOD MAY SEE 2-3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IN PERSISTENT BANDS FROM ROCHESTER WEST ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER AND INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITHIN THE NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THE LOWEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE FOUND
AT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM OSWEGO TO EASTERN WAYNE
COUNTIES...DUE TO LESS SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MOISTURE IN THAT AREA
AND THE FACT THAT THE EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO IS ICE COVERED.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 30 ON THE HILLS. THESE HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY...WITH ONGOING COLD
ADVECTION FORCING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S BY LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER COLD
ADVECTION. EXPECT LOWS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE MID TEENS IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

ON SATURDAY THE WRAP AROUND AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN NY WILL STILL BE GOING EARLY WITH SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASCENT PULL AWAY AND ARE REPLACED BY INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WAY OFF NORMAL ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
BARELY 20 ON THE HILLS...A SOLID 20F BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY CREST ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE CLEARING WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS WITH SINGLE
NUMBERS ACROSS THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND ALLOW
WARM ADVECTION TO OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT ANY PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY A MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BECOME MILD
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT. THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACK TO
OUR NORTH...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MINOR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE
FEATURES WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ATTEMPTS TO DE-AMPLIFY AND BECOME MORE ZONAL. GIVEN
THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CONTINUITY AND A
MAINLY DRY TUESDAY AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS
STRONGER WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP SLOWLY
UPWARD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH GOOD SIGNS IN BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF OF A STRONGER PUSH OF WARM AIR BY AROUND THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A BAND OF
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21Z TO 00Z...THEN SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CIGS FOR A PERIOD UNTIL ABOUT 04Z TO 06Z. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS BACK TO ALL BUT KART...WITH
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS...POSSIBLY IFR VBSYS IN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
THE LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY...THIS WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WCH







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