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000
FXUS61 KBUF 020226
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
926 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING ON MONDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY CHANGING TO A
WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.
DRY AIR SURGING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER OF
NEW YORK HAS ALLOWED SNOW TO DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS OHIO AND WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST THERE IS LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING UPSTREAM TO INVIGORATE
THE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THUS HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LEWIS COUNTY REMAINS
UNDER AN ADVISORY FOR NOW AS A WEAKENING BATCH OF 1 TO 2 SM VISBY
SNOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND COULD STILL PICK
UP SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TUG HILL.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE REMAINING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS PULL INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
ATLANTIC. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BOSTON
HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY ENHANCED
BEFORE SUNRSISE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...BUT THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THIS. THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO AN INCH
IN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BECOMING DRY.
SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING LIKELY THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO BORDERLINE
WINDY ON MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW IN
OPEN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHALLOW 500MB RIDING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLORADO LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VIGOROUS VORT MAX ALOFT EJECTING OUT OF PARENT
WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL START AS A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON...12Z MODELS SHOW A WEDGE OF
WARM AIR WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVERRIDING STILL SUB-FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANGEOVER TO AN
ICY MIX FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO PLAIN RAIN.

THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SURGING A THICKER LAYER OF WARM
AIR NORTHWARD WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT. HAVE TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH FOR THE CURRENT
WARM LAYER TEMPERATURES. IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS THE WARM AIR
ALMOST ALWAYS COMES IN FASTER THAN THE MODELS SHOW. HAVE FEATURED A
PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET THEN CHANGING OVER TO A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN. THE WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT AND MIX WITH SLEET WILL YIELD LOW END SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 OR LESS. THIS THINKING COMBINED WITH BLEND OF MODEL
QPF YIELDS 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH A
LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH FUTURE UPDATES. SURFACE TEMPS WILL RISE
FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 40 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ONCE PRECIPITATION TURNS TO PLAIN RAIN A BLEND OF 01/12Z
MODEL QPF IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH OF LIQUID. THE CURRENT SNOW PACK WILL ABSORB THIS RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE FEW HOURS OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE LONG ENOUGH FOR ANY THREAT OF
A SIGNIFICANT THAW AS COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE BACK ACROSS NEW
YORK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE TRACK OF THIS
DEEPENING LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A STRONG INVERSION WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL CUT OFF THE STRONG 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND PREVENT
THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. A SHORT PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND
GUST SHOULD ONLY REACH 30-40 KNOTS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING PRECIP BACK TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID 20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS
WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE RETURN OF COLD AIR CROSSING LAKE
ONTARIO LOOKS TO PRODUCE A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE AS LINGERING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS RISE TO NEAR 8KFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NOW WILL SHOW A
SLOW IMPROVING TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR TYPE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

ON MONDAY A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW
WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE
OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
LOWER LAKES.

ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042-
         043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK