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000
FXUS61 KBUF 110850
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE LAKES RIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SNOW BELTS.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY BRINGS A MORE WIDESPREAD
GENERAL SNOWFALL THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/ATTENDANT SURFACE
TROUGH CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA TODAY...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE
LAKES GIVEN THE PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE
WARMER LAKE WATERS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...ANY
SCATTERED SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WHILE THE LAKE SNOWS WEAKEN SOME AND DRIFT TO AREAS
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. LOOKING A LITTLE MORE CLOSELY AT THE FORECAST
DETAILS...

OFF LAKE ERIE A GENERAL 270 DEGREE FLOW WILL KEEP MOSTLY MULTIBANDED
LAKE EFFECT GOING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO BETWEEN 250-260 DEGREES IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH. COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP...THIS WILL ALLOW THE LAKE
SNOWS TO CONSOLIDATE BACK INTO A SINGLE BAND AND INTENSIFY WHILE
LIFTING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES...AND LIKELY
INTO SOME OF THE NEARBY BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS BY MIDDAY/EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BAND SHOULD LINGER FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME...THE FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY VEER AGAIN
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH WILL
SEND THE LAKE SNOWS BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE SKI COUNTRY OF SOUTHERN
ERIE/WYOMING/NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN EVEN FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER BY
LATE EVENING AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.

GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECTED INCREASE
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 6-10 INCHES OF FRESH
ACCUMULATION TO FALL FROM FAR NORTHERN CHAUT/CATT COUNTIES ACROSS
SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS THERE WILL
BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS...WHILE FURTHER NORTH ACCUMS OF AS MUCH AS 3-6
INCHES WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...
FOR WHICH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR NORTHERN
ERIE COUNTY. TONIGHT...EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 3-6 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION AS THE LAKE SNOWS SETTLE BACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TRADITIONAL SNOWBELTS...WITH THE SOMEWHAT LOWER AMOUNTS DUE TO THE
MORE TRANSITORY NATURE OF THE BAND AND A LOWERING CAP/SHORTENING
FETCH.

MEANWHILE OFF OUR OTHER LAKE...THE SAME GENERAL 270 DEGREE FLOW
CONTINUES TO DIRECT A POTENT SINGLE BAND ACROSS THE LONG AXIS OF THE
LAKE AND SMACK DAB INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL...WHERE
THE ADDITION OF STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS HELPING TO GENERATE
SNOWFALL RATES OF AS HIGH AS 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS BAND SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN ROUGHLY STATIONARY AND RETAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE ALSO DRIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH TO
THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE TUG HILL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...STEADY VEERING OF THE FLOW WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SEND THE BAND BACK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TUG DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THEN FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO
COUNTY CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE SETUP /THE LONG FETCH ACROSS THE LONG AXIS
OF THE LAKE...MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE...AND ADDED OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS/...EXPECT THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS TO GENERATE AN
ADDITIONAL 12 TO 16 INCHES WHERE THEY ARE MOST PERSISTENT TODAY...
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 FEET NOT AT ALL OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THESE WILL BE THEN FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 4-8
INCHES TONIGHT AS THE BAND MIGRATES SOUTHWARD...WITH THE LOWER
AMOUNTS DUE TO THE MORE TRANSITORY NATURE AND THE COMBINED EFFECTS
OF A SHORTENING FETCH/LOWERING CAP/WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S TODAY...THEN LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 10-15 DEGREE
RANGE TONIGHT...THOUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE EVEN COLDER WITH
READINGS PLUNGING TO BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 ABOVE. CONTINUED BRISK
WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPART AND ADDED CHILL TO THE AIR AND
GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY...BEFORE FINALLY
DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...LEADING TO
CONTINUED IMPRESSIVE OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
REMAIN AROUND -18C. PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL
BRING STEERING WINDS AROUND TO WEST NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST AND MORE PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE OFF LAKE ERIE...WHERE AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY IN FAVORED AREAS. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER LAKE
ONTARIO WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE WITHIN A MORE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...BUT WILL STILL MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE SNOW SET
UP...HOWEVER THE INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS THAN THAT OFF OF LAKE
ERIE.

ALSO...00Z RUNS OF THE RGEM/NAM INDICATE STEADIER SNOWS MAY CLIP
NORTHERN WAYNE/CAYUGA COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NW. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS WHERE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST
THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF A WESTERLY FLOW REGIME BEHIND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. SHEAR PROFILES BECOMING INCREASING FAVORABLE FOR SINGLE LAKE
PLUMES TO DEVELOP EAST OF BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE THE TUG HILL REGION COULD EASILY SEE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A FOOT OR MORE.

LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO VEER MORE WEST SOUTHWEST DURING FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD NUDGE
THE LAKE SNOWS FARTHER TO THE NORTH...WHICH MAY BRING SOME HEAVIER
SNOWS CLOSE TO OR INTO THE BUFFALO METRO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TREND IS FOR THE DEVELOPING ROCKIES
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD TO TRAVEL INTO THE GULF COASTAL REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE MAKING A TURN TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS SEEM TO
BE CONVERGING AT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IMPACTING
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. LATEST GFS/ECMWF INDICATING TWO ENTERS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE
WORKING THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
MOVING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW ALL THIS
WILL PLAY OUT...BUT THE SUGGESTION IS THAT A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME WINTRY MIX
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS SOME WARMER
AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. MUCH TOO EARLY IN THE GAME TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BY THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL
INCHES.

ONCE THE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH...ARCTIC AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN
SURGE INTO THE REGION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE SNOWS
REDEVELOPING ON A NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY SHOULD DIMINISH LAKE
POTENTIAL. NEXT CLIPPER LOW LOOKS TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE LAKES
TODAY...BEFORE SINKING SOUTHWARD TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND
WEAKENING SOME TONIGHT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RANGE FROM VLIFR TO IFR
WITHIN THE LAKE SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE
LAKES.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY GALES WILL CONTINUE ON BOTH LAKES THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
COURSE OF TODAY. THIS STATED...SOLID ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL
STILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008-012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ004-005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ021.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR NYZ010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043>045-
         063>065.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LOZ042-062.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JJR/WCH
MARINE...JJR