Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 011508
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1108 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL LINGER
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY TRACKS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LINGERING OVERCAST SKIES AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG AS THIS
MOIST FLOW UPSLOPES FROM LAKE ONTARIO. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST AREA
CLOUDY ALL DAY WHILE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF THE DRIZZLE INTO THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COOL WITH THE OVERCAST SKIES
AND NORTHEAST FLOW NOT ALLOWING FOR MUCH WARMING. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST AREAS. SOME OF THE HILLS MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH 50.

LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AS THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LINGER MOST OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSES ALOFT AND MAINTAINS THE INVERSION. EXPECT DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS
TO LINGER SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP MODESTLY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WITH
MORE PATCHY FOG ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BRUSHING BY
OUR NORTHERN AREAS. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LINGERING MOISTURE
MAY PRODUCE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL (850 HPA
+3 TO +4C) CREATES STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DIURNALY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY SHOWERS FORM.

TO THE WEST DRIER AIR IS A LITTLE FASTER NOW IN ITS ARRIVAL ACROSS
WNY...SUCH THAT THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY. IT WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S...AND POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER
30S ACROSS THE TRADITIONALLY COLDER SPOTS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR MILDER TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WE SHOULD BE CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN
THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AROUND 70F...AND COMFORTABLY LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND
+12C AND CORRESPONDING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS CONTINUED RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN
INCREASING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE...AND WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE
FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE TO OUR EAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...SUCH THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD
BE ABLE TO BREAK FREE OF ANY CAPPING INVERSIONS. THE LACK OF ANY
DISTINCTIVE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL KEEP WHAT ACTIVE THAT DOES FORM
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE GRIDS.

BY FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE LOW 80S AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH CROSSING FROM CANADA
ACROSS MAINE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO THE 70S...BUT RETURN FLOW
WILL RECOVER QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S.
THERE WILL BE NO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 15Z WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VIS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA WITH
A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS TO LINGER SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE UPSLOPING WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE EVENING. VIS WILL HOLD AT 2SM OR LESS IN AREAS OF
FOG.

THIS EVENING A WEAKER FLOW AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED. A NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL AGAIN LOWER CIGS TO IFR AT MOST
SITES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR TUESDAY SHOULD FINALLY IMPROVE
CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERCAST SKIES WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS RELAXED AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DROPPED. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL/SMITH
MARINE...APFFEL/SMITH


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