Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 171146
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
646 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a nice start to the weekend. A system
moving up the east coast bringing some light snow tonight.
Significant warming will then take place early next week with
many areas climbing above 60 for Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure over the region this morning will push east into
New England. This will keep fair dry weather over our region,
although clouds will gradually increase during the course of the
afternoon. Temperatures will be seasonable today with most
highs in the lower to mid 30s.

A wave of low pressure will move from the Tennessee valley to
the east coast tonight. An area of light snow will work across
southern portions of the area for a few hours tonight, perhaps
lingering a bit longer east of the lakes. Deeper moisture strips
away quickly so most areas will just see a coating of snow at
best, possibly up to an inch for higher elevations of the
Southern Tier and Tug Hill.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will approach the region from the Ohio Valley Sunday.
Cold air advection will continue across the eastern Great Lakes as a
shortwave trough moves off the New England coast. Moisture will be
departing to the east and any lake effect snow showers will taper
off throughout the day. High temperatures will be in the U30s/L40s.

An upper level ridge axis will move off the east coast Sunday night
while an upper level trough digs into the southwest U.S. and a
shortwave trough moves across the Northern Plains. These features
will be the players in the wet and warm weather expected for the
start of the work week. Low pressure will deepen to the lee of the
Colorado Rockies while a faster moving clipper-type low moves across
the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes by Monday morning. Warm
air advection will be increasing moisture across the eastern Great
Lakes Sunday night-Monday causing clouds to increase from southwest
to northeast. Low pressure will become elongated, with a cold front
extending from the Central Plains to the Ontario Providence Monday.
A 50kt LLJ will advect warm, moist air Sunday night-Monday with
850mb temperatures climbing 10-15 deg C in 24 hours. Rain or snow
will enter the Southern Tier Monday morning before changing to all
rain with temperatures climbing into the 50s Monday. High anomalous
PWAT air will stream into the region and periods of rain will
continue through Monday. Rain will taper off some Monday night as
the nose of the LLJ moves into northern New England. Rainfall totals
of 0.5-0.75 inch are expected across Western NY and the North
Country through Monday night.

Warm temperatures continue Monday night with lows in the U40s/L50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wet and warm weather continues Tuesday as rainfall ahead of the
eastward advecting cold front moves back into the eastern Great
Lakes. Rain will become widespread again Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Temperatures will reach the 60s Tuesday with slightly cooler
temperatures near the lake shores and slightly higher temperatures
in interior valleys such as the Finger Lakes region. Additional
rainfall amounts of 0.5 - 1.0 inch are expected through Tuesday
night. Concern arises across the North Country where snow pack still
exists. The combination of snow melt and rainfall may cause flooding
issues on area creeks and rivers including the Black River.

The cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday night-
Wednesday. Rain will end by Wednesday night and cold air advection
will begin. Total rainfall amounts will range from 0.75 - 1.50
inches Monday night - Wednesday night.

Strong dry high pressure should then build over the Great Lakes
Thursday/ Thursday night. The warm temps and rain of Tuesday will
trend to cooler and drier conditons by Thursday. Model consensus
then shows another warm front or surface low crossing our region
Friday leading to a chance of rain showers or snow to rain showers.
Temps Thursday and Friday will average 5-10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will move across the region today supporting VFR
conditions. Area of lake cloudiness with cigs around 35 hundred
feet southeast of Lake Ontario will lift northward this
morning, possibly reaching KART between 14z and 16z. If this
cloudiness does hold together it will not last much longer than
a couple of hours, before lifting north of KART. Area of
stratocumulus across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania
may hold together long enough to reach KBUF/KIAG/KJHW this
morning, but this cloudiness will tend to scattered out as it
reaches the western terminals.

Mid and high level cloudiness will increase this afternoon and
evening as a wave of low pressure shifts from the Tennessee
Valley to the east coast. Northern edge of the associated snow
shield will push into the Southern Tier of New York State early
tonight with possible MVFR or IFR conditions developing at KJHW
toward 06z.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR.
Monday and Tuesday...Rain becoming likely with MVFR/IFR cigs.
Wednesday...MVFR in showers improving to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light to occasionally moderate winds will be found over
the region today as surface high pressure over the lower Great
Lakes this morning exits across New England by tonight.

Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory levels on
Sunday as another area of high pressure will cross the region.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...CHURCH/HSK/SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...CHURCH/RSH/TMA



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