Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 011918
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
318 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY TRACKS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF
SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.
MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO UPSLOPE OFF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN VIRGINA. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME
HIGH LEVEL RETURNS ACROSS OHIO BUT THESE SHOULD JUST BE VIRGA
ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. THESE
CONDITIONS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE LOW 50S THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA TOWARD THE
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL DIMINISH SOME BUT THE FLOW WILL HOLD CLOUDY
SKIES WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY SLIP BACK A FEW DEGREES TO THE MID 40S DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WHILE SOME LINGERING FOG
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A
SLOW CLEARING TREAD IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
WHERE CLEARING WILL ARRIVE FIRST BUT THE LONGER LINGERING CLOUD
COVER ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE ISSUE WILL BE THE RISK FOR SOME PATCHY FROST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE COLDER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND OVER PARTS OF LEWIS
COUNTY WHERE THE MERCURY MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. COVERAGE WOULD
BE LIMITED AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE ANY FLAGS AT THIS
POINT.

THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL
PUMP WARMER AIR WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION
IN THE PROCESS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME DEG F HIGHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A RESULT...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WARMTH WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR AN
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACROSS UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE SOME INTERACTION WITH A
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY COULD COME INTO PLAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING...AND WHILE GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE NOT SUGGESTING A LOT OF
FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE...IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT LEAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD THEN SUPPLY THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH FAIR
COMFORTABLE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WOULD BE IF THE FRONT STALLED CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION TO
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT THIS RISK LOOKS
QUITE LOW. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE MID 70S...
WITH UPPER 70S BECOMING RATHER COMMON FOR SUNDAY.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...SO WILL USE CHC POPS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOW END MVFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE
ONTARIO. MOST SITES HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN VIS EXCEPT FOR KROC
WITH ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAKE ONTARIO.

TONIGHT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RELAX SOME WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING. A NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL AGAIN LOWER CIGS TO
IFR AT MOST SITES WITH KART LIKELY HOLDING AT MVFR WITH A DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST. VIS WILL ALSO LIKELY DROP
BACK TO IFR WITH MOISTURE POOLING BELOW THE INVERSION. THE ARRIVAL
OF DRIER AIR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES SHOULD BRING A SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY TRACK ACROSS MID-ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX WITH WINDS DIMIISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH



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