Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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878
FXUS61 KBUF 191712
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1212 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide our region with fair weather through
Tuesday morning. A weak front will then cross the area later Tuesday
and Tuesday night with a period of showers. Mainly dry weather will
then return for Wednesday and Thursday before low pressure moves
into the Great Lakes Friday with the next period of rain.
Temperatures will remain well above average through the week before
colder air arrives next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Visible satellite imagery shows full sunshine across the entire
region this afternoon with just a few thin patches of cirrus
crossing the North Country. Expect sunshine to continue through the
end of the day for most of the region. Across the North Country a
few lower clouds may develop toward evening across the higher
terrain as low level moisture and upslope flow begin to increase.
Temperatures will reach the low to mid 50s across most of Western
NY, with mid 40s across the eastern Lake Ontario region. These highs
will likely occur early this afternoon, with temperatures then
starting to drop mid to late afternoon as cold advection increases.

Tonight a mid level trough will dig southeast across New England.
This will force a backdoor cold front to move south across our
region with steady low level cold advection. Low level moisture will
increase overnight in the wake of the backdoor cold front as
boundary layer flow becomes northwest and north. This will pick up
some limited lake moisture off Lake Ontario, and also produce more
upslope flow into the higher terrain south of the lake. Expect skies
to become mostly cloudy tonight for most areas from the Genesee
Valley eastward, with clouds more patchy across far Western NY.
Temperatures will turn a little colder behind the backdoor cold
front, with lows around 30 in most areas and low to mid 20s for the
North Country.

On Monday the backdoor cold front will stall and wash out just to
our south and west. High pressure will build south into Quebec and
northern New England with associated subsidence and drying bringing
another dry day. Some low stratus may linger in the morning from the
interior sections of Western NY eastward to Central NY and Lewis
County, but this should erode and give way to sunshine as a dry low
level airmass builds into the region. Temperatures will be knocked
back another notch with highs in the lower to mid 40s across far
Western NY, upper 30s for the Rochester area and Finger Lakes, and
low to mid 30s across the North Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Models have trended a bit faster with the approaching
progressive shortwave, with the consensus now bringing it across
the area during the day Tuesday. This will bring increasing
cloud cover early Tuesday morning, with rain showers likely
crossing the area during the day Tuesday, and tapering off from
west to east Tuesday night. With no real cold air source to the
wave, Tuesday will see highs in the upper 40s in the North
Country to mid 50s in WNY, mainly limited by the cloud cover and
any precipitation that falls.

Ridging will quickly follow on Wednesday brining more fair weather.
Wednesday will see temperatures surge back to around 50 in the North
Country, to the lower 60s in WNY, continuing the stretch of very
mild weather across the region well into next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ridging will quickly follow on Wednesday brining more fair weather.
Wednesday will see temperatures surge back to around 50 in the North
Country, to the lower 60s in WNY, continuing the stretch of very
mild weather across the region well into next week.

Temperatures will remain solidly above normal during this period...
as a blocked flow will persist across the northern hemisphere. The
main feature within the obstructed flow will be a Rex Block that
will be anchored between Alaska and the Hawaiian Islands. This will
naturally keep a trough over the western half of the country while
general ridging will be found further downstream (over the east).
While the pattern will attempt to break down towards the end of this
forecast period with the trough broadening across the country...but
any semblance of winter will be short lived as the various ensemble
packages are suggesting that the longwave trough will then become re-
established over the west.

In terms of day to day weather...the upper level pattern described
above will be very conducive for `cutter` type storms to make their
way from the high plains to the Upper Great Lakes. This storm track
will keep the storm systems to our west...further enhancing the mild
weather with periodic injections of warmth from the GOMEX. Such will
be the case Friday and Friday night when a sub 990mb low will direct
some late winter sub tropical warmth (H85 temps 10 to 12c) across
the Lower Great Lakes.

While there is high confidence of the general pattern and its
corresponding impacts on our temperatures...the same cannot be said
about the timing of the individual storm systems. This will lead to
some broad brushing of chc pops...especially later in the period.
Will thus refrain from getting too specific with the use of likely
pops.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR will prevail through the end of the afternoon with mainly clear
skies across the region. A backdoor cold front will drop south
across the area this evening, with low level moisture increasing in
it`s wake as low level flow becomes northwest and eventually north
late tonight. This will pick up some limited moisture off Lake
Ontario, and also produce more upslope flow into the higher terrain.
This will bring areas of MVFR CIGS, first by early evening east of
Lake Ontario, and eventually overnight for the rest of the area. The
MVFR CIGS will linger into Monday morning before quickly scattering
out as high pressure builds southeast across Quebec and northern New
England, bringing a return to VFR.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Tuesday night...Showers likely with areas of MVFR.
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...Showers likely with areas of MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
West to southwest winds early this afternoon will slowly veer to the
northwest during the late afternoon and evening as a backdoor cold
front moves south across the Lower Great Lakes region. This will
bring choppy conditions to the east end of Lakes Erie and Ontario,
but winds and waves will generally stay just below Small Craft
Advisory Criteria. Winds will become north and then northeast Monday
as high pressure builds across Quebec and New England.

Relatively light winds will then continue through the first half of
the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK



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