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000
FXUS61 KBUF 170710
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
310 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUR CLOUD COVER. OUR NEXT LEGITIMATE
OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SO WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO A NICE STRETCH OF
DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE
ANOTHER SUN FILLED DAY...THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AT 30 YEAR NORMALS...
WHICH ENDS UP BEING A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED ON
THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TODAY...WITH SOME
LOWER 70S EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

TONIGHT...FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
NOSE OF THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT THOUGH...PARTLY BECAUSE OF
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS (MAINLY WRN COUNTIES) BUT MORESO BECAUSE OF
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE `RETURN FLOW` AROUND THE EXITING SFC
HIGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE WEST AND
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM QUEBEC TO NEW
YORK STATE/NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND OUT TO SEA...
WHILE A CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK TO MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR AREA...ALONG WITH A SLOW BUT
STEADY INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE. THIS SAID...WITH ANY NOTEWORTHY
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND/OR SHORTWAVES REMAINING WELL
NORTH OR SOUTH OF OUR REGION...THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD
LARGELY JUST LEAD TO SOME PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER... WITH
JUST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE THUS KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
PLAY TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE. EXPECT DAYTIME
HIGHS TO WARM FROM THE LOW-MID 70S SATURDAY TO THE MID-UPPER 70S BY
MONDAY...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS MODERATE TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNSETTLED AS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDE EAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE WAVES AND THEIR
RESULTANT IMPACT ON THE POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS DISTANT VANTAGE
POINT...FOR NOW FEEL IT BEST TO CONTINUE WITH BROADBRUSH SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR ALL THREE DAYS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY
TRENDING A LITTLE COOLER FOR THURSDAY PER THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING WILL BE FOUND ON BOTH
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LIGHT
WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES WILL KEEP RAIN FREE WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED
FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH