Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 290816
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
416 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY WHERE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE
A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM
WITHIN THE AFTERNOON HEAT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THOUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE AS IT NEARS THE LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DISPLAYS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR SKIES. AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARDS EASTERN NEW YORK
STATE THIS MORNING...WITH THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR CALM...OR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS.

FOR TODAY AS THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ENSUE. THIS FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR MASS
NORTHWARD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING TO +14 TO +15C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN LIGHT SUCH THAT LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL DEVELOP
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SHORELINES.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN WARMTH THE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING. DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ARE COMFORTABLE AND ARE IN THE
LOW 50S...BUT WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE TILL TONIGHT THAT ANY REAL MUGGINESS
TO THE AIR IS FELT WHEN THE DEWPOINT RISE FURTHER INTO THE LOW 60S.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS
FROM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION/WNY THIS MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WNY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE AREAS FARTHEST FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...WHICH WILL
BE AREAS ACROSS FAR SW NYS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY
LIES. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE FOCAL POINT
FOR CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENNG. AS THE
INSTABILITY IS TIED TO THE HEATING OF THE DAY...IT WILL LOSS ITS
STRENGTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. THERE
WILL BE MINOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PWATS NEARING AN INCH AND A HALF. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THAT IS NOW WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT THAN THIS PRIOR
NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEW POINTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WHICH WILL
DROP A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND
DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DELAY THE START OF
SHOWERS ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LAKE SHADOWING WILL BREAK
DOWN SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH PWATS FORECAST TO BE 1.5 TO 1.75 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG A
LAKE BREEZE OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS
WILL HAPPEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT WHICH PROBABLY LEADS DIFFERENCES IN QPF.
THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT ON SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER (00Z NAM/ECMWF) WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATTER GUIDANCE IS LESS LIKELY TO
VERIFY...IT IS WORTH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY WITH A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION
COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OTHER GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL ONLY UP
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL THERE IS ANOTHER RUN TO SUPPORT THIS.
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TUESDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL SET UP MID-WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE
AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 06Z VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PACKAGE. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES
NORTHWARD TOWARDS KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND EARLY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER THE
REGION. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE
DAY WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 20 KNOTS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WINDS AND
WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS



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