Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 290834
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
434 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS WEEKEND. DRY
AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE INITIAL BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES HAS LARGELY PUSHED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-
LIVED HOWEVER AS THICKER DECK OF MIC/HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS BAND OF CLOUDS WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO MID/UPPER
LEVELS. HAVE NUDGED THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONSENSUS 850MB TEMP
FORECAST AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...THOUGH A
FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY TOUCH 80 THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO NE OH/WRN PA THAT MAY
ALSO CLIP FAR SW NY LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY CLOUDY
BUT DRY NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO A SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE EASTERN
CONUS... WHILE A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND AND CONTINUES
TO DECAY. AS THIS LATTER FEATURE MEANDERS ITS WAY ACROSS OUR
REGION...AN ATTENDANT SWATH OF BROAD/DIFFUSE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY.

THE ABOVE STATED...GIVEN THE BROAD/DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE
AVAILABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE...THE COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN
NATURE...WHICH IN TURN WILL ONLY WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOWER-
END CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. JUDGING FROM A CONSENSUS OF THE
LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING SUNDAY...WHERE THE
DEEPEST OVERALL MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE DURING THESE PERIODS...AND
WHERE ONE OR MORE ZONES OF SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO
BE PRESENT DURING SUNDAY.

FOLLOWING THIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD AS THE DECOMPOSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY SLIDES OUT INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
STATED...HAVE STILL LEFT OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM CONTINUITY
INTACT THROUGH MONDAY GIVEN THE WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW THAT WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT.

OTHERWISE...THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S SUNDAY TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY...WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S BY ITS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NATION. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A PERIOD OF LARGELY DRY
WEATHER AND MIDSUMMER-LIKE WARMTH FOR OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTLY LOWS MOSTLY RANGING
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD WRN/NCTRL NY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT THE
FORMATION OF VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR ANOTHER NIGHT.
EXPECT LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
INCLUDING PERIODS OF LIFR AT KJHW THROUGH 12-13Z WITH CLEARING
THEREAFTER.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS GREATER THAN
12KFT THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
3500-5000FT ACROSS WNY SATURDAY EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER AS THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS / ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK...RESULTING IN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE
LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...JJR/WCH
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD



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