Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 150631
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
231 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY BEFORE A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS RAIN
SHOWERS FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A COLD POOL BETWEEN 850-700MB TRANSITING THE REGION COUPLED WITH
MOISTURE THAT HAS CONTINUED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION OVER THE LAST
48 HOURS IS GENERATING AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK THAT IS ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK IN
THE MID-40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH AN UPSTREAM MOISTURE SOURCE IN THE
FORM OF THE LAKES...AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLEARING BEFORE DAWN AND GIVEN THIS...AM DROPPING THE FROST
ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND OSWEGO COUNTY. GIVEN THAT
CURRENT OBS IN PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES ARE SHOWING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES...WILL LEAVE ADVISORIES IN
PLACE ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR NOW...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
UP A FEW DEGREES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK MAKES ITS WAY
OVERHEAD.

OTHERWISE...THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH
MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 100 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK. TIMING OF THE
ATTENDANT FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS CENTERED ON MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...A NOTABLE INCREASE IN FORCING WILL COMMENCE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS IN THE PRESENCE OF
BRIEF FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET SUPPORT. MODEST MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS PROCESS WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW AT THE ONSET GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE EXISTING DRY
LAYER. AN EXTENSIVE CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUD WILL MINIMIZE THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER PRE-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION. AT THIS
STAGE...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE WAVE. WHILE THE SURFACE
FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...IT WILL HELP TO GENERATE AN AREA
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH WILL BE FURTHER AUGMENTED BY
STRONGER LIFT FROM THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS THAT FORCED
BY A REGION OF DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A SUPPORTING
UPPER LEVEL JET. ALL OF THIS WILL IN TURN ACT ON A DEEP ENOUGH AND
FAVORABLE ENOUGH SWATH OF MOISTURE TO BRING A QUICK-MOVING ROUND OF
SHOWERS TO OUR REGION...FOR WHICH POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE. GIVEN THE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM
AND PWATS OF AROUND AN INCH...PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
EXCESSIVE...BUT SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF AN INCH IN MOST SPOTS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY RIDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END DURING THE
COURSE OF TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WEST-TO-EAST
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.

AFTER THAT...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE WASHING OUT ALTOGETHER ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE LIMITED ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE LACK OF NOTEWORTHY
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...WILL CONTINUE TO JUST INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONT FOR NOW...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
OTHERWISE CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THESE WILL REMAIN BELOW MID SEPTEMBER AVERAGES
GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
TO GENERALLY AVERAGE OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...BEFORE POSSIBLY
DROPPING BACK SOME 3-5 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
BRIEFLY WORKS INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
MEANWHILE...NIGHTTIME LOWS INITIALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BACK TO THE MID-UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST
CONCERNS FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM NEW YORK STATE TO
THE MAINE COASTLINE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR BEGINS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN CANADA.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OUR
REGION...THE CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY OUT OF IT WILL ALSO HELP TO
PUMP EVEN WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO FINALLY CLIMB BACK TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 5-6KFT CURRENTLY CROSSING THE STATE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT...PREVENT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE VFR CIGS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY LATE MORNING WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING...HOWEVER MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SPREADING
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM 00-03Z ONWARDS. WEST-NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL GENERATE LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE
LAKES TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND
MUCH OF THE WAVE ACTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SHORES OF
THE LAKES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...JJR/RSH
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...TMA






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