Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 292351
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
751 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the area late tonight and bring a
return to somewhat cooler and less humid air for Memorial Day
through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Radar and satellite trends show convection across the region is
slowly weakening with the loss of diurnal heating and starting to
shift eastward. Farther west, the surface cold front will enter
western NY after 06Z. A QLCS had developed earlier ahead of the
front across southwestern Ontario, however, waning instability has
allowed this feature to weaken. By the time the frontal forcing
reaches western NY, it may produce a few scattered showers or an
isolated thunderstorm, but weak convergence and limited instability
by this time of night should keep the activity weak with limited
areal coverage.

It will remain mild and humid most of the night until the front
arrives, with lower humidity reaching western NY around daybreak
with the cold frontal passage. Expect lows in the mid to upper 60s
on the lake plains, with lower 60s across the cooler Southern Tier
valleys and Tug Hill region.

On Memorial Day Monday the cold front will move east across the area
during the morning, reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region and
central NY by midday or early afternoon. Prior to the frontal
passage there may still be a lingering shower or isolated
thunderstorm east of the Genesee Valley. Otherwise western NY will
dry out by early morning, and the eastern Lake Ontario region will
be dry from early afternoon on. Behind the front skies will
partially clear, although diurnal cumulus will develop along and
inland from the lake breezes during the afternoon yielding a mix of
sun and clouds. Stable lake shadows east of the lakes will bring
more full sunshine along the Lake Erie shore and near Watertown.

Less humid air will filter into the area from west to east through
the day. Temperatures will still top out in the lower 80s across
lower elevations away from the lakeshores, with upper 70s across the
higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Temporary re-establishment of upper level East Coast ridging and
expansion of Hudson Bay centered high pressure across the eastern
Great Lakes will promote fair weather through midweek. The latter
will bring a drier, more comfortable airmass to our region under
northwest flow with plenty of sunshine during the day and mainly
clear skies at night. Breezy northwest winds are possible Tuesday as
the 12z NAM shows good mixing of a 20-30 kt jet aloft. 850 mb
temperatures of about 12C will promote afternoon surface highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s.

Comfortable dewpoint temperatures falling back to the upper 40s and
low 50s along with clear skies will promote cooler overnight
temperatures dipping into the low to mid 50s Monday and Tuesday
nights along with some patchy fog in the Southern Tier. By Wednesday
night an increasing southerly flow ahead of a cold front approaching
from the west will help hold temperatures a bit milder with
increasing clouds and humidity. Lows should only dip into the upper
50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expanding ridging across the western US will force downstream
troughing across the eastern states heading into next weekend. This
digging trough will promote cooler temperatures working back toward
early June climatological levels along with a few chances of
precipitation.

The first chance will be associated with a weak cold front currently
forecast to shift across the forecast area mainly later Thursday
into Thursday night. Some weak instability forecast to build ahead
of the front calls for chances of showers and thunderstorms. Low end
to slight chance POPS then extend from Friday through Saturday
mainly due to the trough overhead. A shortwave trough digging into
the base of the trough on Sunday will support broadbrush chance
POPs.

Temperatures on Thursday will be the warmest ahead of the
front with upper 70s to mid 80s possible before the arrival of the
cool air limits highs to the low to mid 70s through the weekend.
Overnight lows will again dip into the 50s each night coolest inland
away from the lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Any lingering thunderstorms this evening will continue to weaken and
shift eastward into Central NY, with VFR conditions prevailing. A
weak cold front will cross the area late tonight and early Monday
with a few more showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm, but
with sparse coverage. There will likely be a brief period of MVFR
CIGS with IFR higher terrain just behind the front for a few hours
early Monday morning across western NY. By mid to late morning VFR
should prevail with drier air moving into the region.

Outlook...
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the region tonight and clean out the heat
and humidity, with mainly dry conditions expected on Memorial Day.
Winds will increase somewhat on Memorial Day, up to about 15 knots
which will produce choppy wave action but still well below small
craft advisory criteria.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Today......May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Today......May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Today......May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...THOMAS



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