Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 200611
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
211 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures and dry conditions will persist through the
remainder of the week and the coming weekend, as high pressure will
remain in place across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Satellite imagery shows that skies have largely cleared out
across the region with just some thin high clouds associated
with a stalled frontal boundary. With clear skies and light
winds temperatures will fall and patchy fog will again develop.
Expect fog to develop not only in the river valleys, but south
of Lake Ontario where dew points are the highest. Similarly,
look for lows to run in the lower 60s across most locales, with
mid to upper 50s in the cooler areas of the Southern Tier and
North Country.

Look for much of the same on Wednesday, as high pressure will remain
in control across the region. Patchy stratus should mix out
giving way to abundant sunshine. 850mb temps will be just a
little warmer will result in Wednesday running a couple of
degrees warmer, with highs in the low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Two words will summarize this time period...DRY and WARM.

There will be an amplifying upper level pattern in place during this
time period with equally anomalous height departures found over each
half of the country. For our interest here in the Lower Great Lakes
region...H5 heights will average close to 590dm...which is 2-3 STD
higher than where they should be for this time of year. The staunch
summer-like ridge...which will be centered over the Mid-West and
Lower Great Lakes...will support unusually warm conditions as well.

H85 temperatures that will start off in the mid teens C Wednesday
night will further warm to the upper teens C by the weekend.
This will encourage additional day to day warming so that by
Saturday... max temps will be in the mid to upper 80s F. Given
the increasingly dry antecedent conditions...its not out of the
question that select locations in the Genesee Valley (ie.
Dansville) and in the typically warmer valleys of the Southern
Tier would reach 90. If this were mid summer...when the sun
angle would be more than 20 deg greater...then we would likely
be talking about increasingly uncomfortable conditions and
possibly some oppressive heat (esp this weekend). Luckily for
us...the Gulf of Mexico will be cut off..so dew points for much
of the period will generally range from the upper 50s to lower
60s.

Meanwhile the nights will feature mainly clear skies with the
resulting favorable radiational cooling producing fog in open...
outlying areas...and particularly in the Southern Tier valleys. Mins
will range from the mid and upper 50s across the Southern Tier and
parts of the North Country to the low to mid 60s across the lake
plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
It can be stated with high confidence that we can look forward to
continued fair weather during this period...along with continued mid
summer warmth (temperatures that will be more typical of late July-
early August).

An anomalously amplified pattern will be locked in across the
country during this time frame...with 590dm heights over the Lower
Great Lakes averaging some 2-3 STD above typical late Sept values.
The associated subsidence and lack of significant moisture will keep
sunny skies over our region by day...with H85 temps in the upper
teens c supporting widespread afternoon max temps in the mid to 80s.
The warmer valleys will experience highs in the upper 80s. These
temperatures will average some 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
Meanwhile at night...mins will continue to range from the mid and
upper 50s across the Southern Tier and parts of the North Country to
the low to mid 60s across the lake plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Patchy fog will develop across the region overnight, and will be the
main aviation hazard through about sunrise this morning. Typical
Southern Tier valley fog will be the most prevalent overnight,
impacting JHW. Meanwhile more patchy fog, which will be a bit more
sporadic, will impact IAG/BUF/ROC and ART at times overnight.

Fog should rapidly dissipate after 12-13Z on Wednesday, with
mostly clear skies, apart from passing high clouds in western
New York. After this, expect widespread VFR conditions during
the day.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR
conditions each late night and early morning with Southern Tier
valley fog.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in place across the Lower Great Lakes
right through next weekend. This will provide a long stretch of very
light winds and flat wave action for the rest of the week and next
weekend with ideal boating conditions, but not much wind for sailing.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS



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